AFI announces Top 10 films of 2017, Best Picture race takes shape

The AFI (American Film Institute) announced their top ten films of 2017. Everything (mostly) fell into place, as the Best Picture race firms up. The AFI selections:

The Big Sick
Call me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project 
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri 
Wonder Woman

The first and last on the list, The Big Sick and Wonder Woman, are certainly on the shakiest ground for Best Picture. Especially since the other 8 films cited have been firming up their Oscar claims, appearing just about everywhere.

The utility players this season, who so far have dominated the awards circuit are Call me by Your Name, Get Out, and Lady Bird. The Post has also come on strong despite a late entry to the race. Dunkirk remains a visual marvel and directorial feat that will remain in conversations until the end. If we were dealing with a five film Best Picture lineup, I think these might be the five. I still contend that Dunkirk will have a hard time winning since it is not an "actor movie."

So which of the other four would win instead? Hard to say. Will Lady Bird represent the strong year in women in film? Does Call me by Your Name win over voters with visual sumptuousness and a gorgeous coming of age tale? Is Get Out their way to acknowledge the lack of opportunities and equality for people of color? Or will The Post serve as the ultimate middle finger to the Trump administration, being raised high by Hollywood's holy trinity of the father (Spielberg), the son (Hanks), and the holy spirit (Streep)? They all have plausible narratives.

The Shape of Water is also rebounding after a rocky start, and could overtake Dunkirk as the below the line juggernaut (with a very competitive Best Actress entry). And though Martin McDonagh might produce too divisive work to ultimately win the top award, Three Billboards is certainly poised for a nomination thanks to a crusading performance by Frances Mcdormand. The actors are with it. The Florida Project, which I've feared may have only been a "critic's movie" has seen universal praise and rounds out this top 8 pack.

With a 10 picture lineup mathematically improbable, we are looking at maybe one more slot to fill. Most assume it belongs to Darkest Hour. But as of now, the film looks more like Iron Lady (remembered for its winning central performance and makeup) rather than a Best Picture juggernaut. It'll be up to the upcoming industry kudos to change the tide for this one. I'm sure Netflix was thinking Mudbound would be able to resonate with AFI, but they may have to settle for some major awards without an accompanying Best Picture citation. It'll probably be up to the PGA to say otherwise (and a SAG ensemble nomination would also be welcome).

Will a comedy breakthrough? The Big Sick is competitive for Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay, but will undoubtedly feel too light to many voters. Another (much darker) comedy is also in play with I, Tonya. But I have a feeling the voters will go for stories with likable people this year. As Sasha Stone says: "good people doing good things."

Wonder Woman would be one of those good people. If Gal Gadot's pic shows up at the PGA, we will have to reassess its chances. But the issue is that so many genre films were incredible this year. The Academy will probably only have space for one of them, if at all. Will voters looking outside the box be united behind Wonder Woman? Or will they be split between her, Logan, Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast, Baby Driver, and War of the Planet of the Apes? If it's the later, they all lose.

Of course, maybe I'm looking too hard to find a consensus approved ninth nominee. Maybe the strong eight is our strong eight. And that's it.

"The Sammys" 2016: If I Was an Oscar Voter

After sifting through as many movies as I could, and listening to an awards race that hasn't always represented my own personal tastes, I've whittled down my own personal picks for who should be the nominees and winners this year.

The hardest category by far was Cinematography. It has been a banner year for the craft and I could have easily filled out ten nomination slots. I'm still not happy with my lineup because I was forced to leave out stunning photography from the likes of Carol, Brooklyn, and Black Mass. But I forced myself to make some Sophie's choices and get to five nominees.

As for best picture, the year in film came down to two defining movie-going experiences. Brooklyn and Mad Max: Fury Road. It is a crime that neither has much hope at an actual Oscar win for Best Picture.

One one hand is George Miller's magnum opus. The director revisits his crown jewel franchise after nearly four decades, brings a celebrated cinematographer out of retirement, suffers an unprecedented amount of production woes and setbacks, and rockets his cast through the desert on actual tricked out rigs. The result is a nearly wordless action-opera raging with adrenaline, that has a surprising amount to say about survival, women, greed, and humanity. And it does so through wondrous visual storytelling that creates a world so fully realized, it seems to have existed even before Miller set foot there. After the dust settles on this awards season, Mad Max will be long remembered as the year's crowning achievement.

In the other hand sits Brooklyn. Detractors have jabbed the film for being too "classic" or predictable in its story. I would argue that crafting a classic romance such as this in toady's attention deficit society is a near impossible feat. The story is rather straightforward, but skillfully adapted to bring each character to life and has the audience hanging on every moment. Saoirse Ronan proves herself to be one of the most captivating actors of her generation. As Eilis, her eyes soak in as much emotion as they give back, and through subtle shifts in voice and physicality, she transforms into a new woman before our eyes.

I oscillated between these two stunning films over and over. But eventually, the emotional gut punch of Brooklyn cemented the film as my winner. I may not have traveled across the Atlantic, but the film's conception of new beginnings and "home" struck a chord. A year after graduating college, I hopped on a bus with nothing but two large bags and an address, and moved to New York. The mixed feelings of excitement and liberation, coupled with dread and anxiety, that this sort of "starting over" brings has never been so perfectly captured on film. Rarely has a film made me feel as emotionally full as Brooklyn. It deserves its spot at the top.

Now to the good stuff: The 2016 "Sammys"

Best Picture
10.) Spy
9.) Carol
8.) The Martian
7.) Room
6.) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5.) Ex Machina
4.) Spotlight
3.) Inside Out
2.) Mad Max: Fury Road
1.) Brooklyn

Best Director
John Crowley Brooklyn
Pete Docter, Inside Out
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (runner-up)

Best Actor
Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
Matt Damon, The Martian (runner-up)
Leonardo Dicaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jacob Tremblay, Room (winner)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Brie Larson, Room (runner-up)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (winner)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Supporting Actor
Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (runner-up)
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina (winner)
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
Rose Byrne, Spy
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Sarah Paulson, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (winner)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Original Screenplay
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out (runner-up)
Spotlight (winner)
Spy

Best Adapted Screenplay
45 Years
Brooklyn (winner)
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out (winner)
The Prophet
When Marnie Was There (runner-up)

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Sicario (runner-up)
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Cinematography
It Follows
The Revenant (winner)
Macbeth
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Sicario

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak (winner)
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn (winner)
Carol (runner-up)
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Carol
Macbeth (runner-up)
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Mr. Holmes

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (winner)

Best Score
The Hateful Eight
It Follows (winner)
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)

Best Sound Editing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Martian
Sicario (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing
Love and Mercy
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)
Straight Outta Compton

Best Ensemble
Dope (runner-up)
The Martian
Spotlight (winner)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

Best Breakthrough Performer
Abraham Attah
John Boyega
Daisy Ridley (runner-up)
Jacob Tremblay
Alicia Vikander (winner)

Biggest Disappointment of the Year
The Danish Girl

Entertainer of the Year
Cate Blanchett
Michael Fassbender
Harrison Ford
Domhnall Gleeson
Tom Hardy
Jennifer Lawrence
Pixar Animation Studios (winner)
Chris Pratt
Amy Schumer
Charlize Theron
Alicia Vikander


WINS
Mad Max: Fury Road - 5
Brooklyn - 4
Ex Machina - 2
Spotlight - 2
Crimson Peak  - 1
Inside Out - 1
It Follows - 1
Room - 1
The Revenant  - 1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 1

Final Predictions: Who Will Win?

After an awards season full of surprises and shifting front-runners, we are almost at Oscar night. I have compiled a breakdown of every Oscar category (even the shorts!) and who I'm placing bets on to emerge victorious. If you want to be the envy of your Oscar viewing party or win the office pool, look no further. Of course, no one truly knows what will happen, or what goes on in the minds of Academy voters (and surprises always make the evening fun), but this is the best guess and final word on the 2016 Oscars.

I have withheld on including a "should win" citation because I am releasing my annual list of personal nominees and winners tomorrow before the ceremony. Stay tuned!

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight

The guilds have given us mixed tea leaves by going three ways: SAG (actors) chose Spotlight, PGA (producers) chose The Big Short, and the DGA (directors) chose The Revenant. The PGA uses the same preferential ballot that the Oscars use to determine Best Picture, and that alone makes me want to go with the timely The Big Short. However, The Revenant train gained steam late in the game, just after PGA voting and picked up the BAFTA along the way and leads with nominations. I can't see The Big Short winning any other category except adapted screenplay, while Leo's slog through the snow could easily net 4-5 wins. The race is the closest I've ever seen, but I have to put money on The Revenant.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Winning back to back director prizes is rare (only John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz have achieved that feat), but Inarritu looks poised to strike gold again. He has the Globes, BAFTA, and (most importantly) DGA backing his claim. George Miller helmed the other epic in contention, but he really needed the guild or the Brits to speak up for him to be more of a threat. 

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo...but not really

Leo has run the table with the Critics, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. All of Hollywood is in agreement that it is finally time to give the overdue actor his Oscar and I can't see anything slowing him down. Bryan Cranston is charming and a savvy campaigner (he was really Argo's secret Oscar weapon), but as the sole nominee from Trumbo, he will have to be content to watch from his seat.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Brie Larson is just about as locked up as Leo, similarly claiming nearly every best actress prize this season. Some have tried to throw mystery into the race by saying her absence in the film's second half makes her vulnerable. But her main challenger (Ronan) really needed the BAFTA to come to her aide...and they didnt. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Could Win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Sometimes getting the nomination is the biggest hurdle. And now that Sly has crossed it, there is no reason not to expect "the champ" on the Oscar stage. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year (he failed to win for Rocky almost four decades ago) and he has been charming his way through Oscar season. Many pundits think his challenger is Mark Rylance, but that Hollywood outsider has been working on a new play and is not one to actively campaign. The real threat to Mr. Balboa is Hardy, who stars in not one, but two best picture nominees. It's a long shot, but he stands a small chance at getting swept in with The Revenant.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Vikander benefits from having a lead performance (aka more screentime) in a supporting category, and voters will have also watched her in the twice nominated Ex Machina. Kate Winslet has taken the Globe and BAFTA for her powerful role in Steve Jobs, but only when she was not competing against Viaknder's role in The Danish Girl. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Straight Outta Compton

Spotlight has this one in the bag and it is likely the film's only win of the night. Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton would be more of a threat if either had broke into the best picture field, or amassed precursor support. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Big Short

Could Win: The Martian

Another easy call for a well liked best picture frontrunner. It's possible The Martian or Room could come out of left field for a win (they only have one credited writer, which the Academy likes), but The Big Short tackled a complicated subject well and should take this one in a landslide.  

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Big Short

The winner here is often the one with the "most" editing, or most obvious editing (see: Whiplash over Boyhood). So the immense, un-ending car chase of Mad Max should easily find votes here. Though The Big Short has been singled out for its stylish editing, and if it wins this category, look out for the film to surprise in best picture at the end of the night.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

It looks like a three-peat for Emmanuel Lubezki. His work on The Revenant has swept the awards circuit and the Oscars will follow suit. If a surprise is lurking its John Seale, who came out of retirement to shoot the beautiful chaos of Mad Max.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: Bridge of Spies

The production design in Mad Max is responsible for creating an entire world, from the tricked out death-mobiles to the cult members fortress. Unless they feel like rewarding a meticulously done period piece (and a best picture winner likely to go home empty handed) with Bridge of Spies, this is a sure bet for Mad Max. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Danish Girl...or any of them

One of the hardest categories to predict. Truly, all five have a shot at winning. I think voters will appreciate the overall look and tone of Mad Max, and voters will check this one off to go with the movie's other two design wins. The Danish Girl has further support with a production design and two acting nominations, so the period gowns could score here. Though the same can be said for Carol. It'll be close, but I'm going for a Mad Max design sweep.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Mad Max has the most makeup, and its also the boldest. As said above, the design elements are necessary aides for the film's world building. In The Revenant, everyone just looks dirty.

BEST SCORE

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Quentin Tarantino has been beating the drum loudly for legendary composer Ennio Morricone to finally take home a competitive Oscar after scoring (literally) hundreds of films. However, composers names do not appear on the Oscar ballot, so voters who are unaware of that narrative might go for John William's pronounced work on the latest Star Wars (his 50th nomination).

BEST SONG

Will Win: 'Til it Happens to You', The Hunting Ground

Could Win: 'Earned it', Fifty Shades of Grey

Eighth time should be the charm for perennial Oscar loser Dianne Warren. With no anthemic radio hit in contention this year, the Warren/Lady Gaga collaboration creates a winner with a powerful message at its core. The Weekend could potentially rain on their parade thanks to a boost from his recent Grammy performance and wins. Ultimately, I think many voters might balk at awarding Fifty Shades of Grey an Oscar, no matter how good the song is. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant

Precedent tells us that a best picture nominee will win this category if one is in contention. But Star Wars screams visual effects more than any other film and it's an easy place for them to reward the biggest movie of the year. Mad Max might win over actual effects artists for its practical work, and The Revenant could pull of an upset for the strikingly realistic bear attack scene. 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

The corresponding guild does not announce winners until tonight, so we are a bit blind in this category. The loudest film tends to win, and it helps to be a best picture nominee. The car chases and explosions should give this to Mad Max, but don't count out the intense battle sequences of The Revenant. 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I'm dangerously picking a split in the sound categories. While this is not uncommon, it is a risky move since most voters don't know what the difference between the categories are, and you can pick the wrong split. My thought is that voters will appreciate the soundscape of the wilderness that comes together during The Revenant's many dialogue free stretches. But Mad Max could easily get checked off for both editing and mixing. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Inside Out

Don't overthink this one you guys. Nothing else stands a chance. Sorry, Anomalisa.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Amy

Could Win: Cartel Land

Amy has the perfect storm of critical and popular success. Its an excellent documentary and its also the most widely seen of the bunch. Netlfix has poured tons of money into its campaign for What Happened Miss Simone?, and if it wasn't competing against a more popular music doc, it might win. But the real spoiler is the powerful and timely Cartel Land, which has struck a chord with many Academy voters.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Son of Saul

Could Win: Mustang

If voters actually watched all the nominees, then this would be a real horse race between the two frontrunners. But many members vote without seeing them all (or any of them, sadly). So the film about the holocaust and with more name recognition will take it. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Could Win: Bear Story

Both frontrunners contain the heartwarming "aww" factor necessary to win this category. Sanjay's Super Team benefits from a wide release and an army of Pixar/Disney voters in the Academy who are bound to support it. Bear Story has made its way to Netflix and is reminiscent of the quirky art direction of past winner Mr. Hublot. I give Pixar the edge in a close race.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Could Win: Body Team 12 or Girl in the River

Remember how I mentioned that not every voters sees all the films? They may not have seen all the shorts but the older members of the Academy will know Claude Lanzmann and his film Shoah. So he may get votes via name recognition as a way to honor him. Body Team 12 and Girl in the River received more favorable reviews, and will get votes from those who have watched the films. 

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Ave Maria

Could Win: Shok

Ave Maria is the lightest film of the bunch. While critics and audiences are divided over the success of its comedy, the tone will set it apart from its heavier competition. If the Academy is willing to embrace weightier subject matter, they might lean towards Shok. The film is set in the Kosovo war and has been cited for its stellar screenplay and central performance. 

2016 Oscar Nominations Reaction

Well, we knew there would be surprises.

Despite my best efforts at predicting the shockers (like moving Alicia Vikander into Lead for The Danish Girl, oops!) I still had many a miss on my ballot. Though I got four of the nominees correct in most categories. And all eight Best Picture contenders were listed in my top ten. So where do we stand now?

The race is wide open. Perhaps even more so than before. With a whopping 12 nominations (only the 15th film in Academy history to reach that number), The Revenant is looking pretty damn good. True it missed a screenplay nod, but it isn't a particularly dialogue heavy film. It's strength lies in its stark contrast to the smaller "issue driven" front-runners (I'll get to them in a minute). The Revenant is epic film-making. This is a filmmaker's movie, one that you go to the cinema to see.

The two other films which had previous sat atop the pile were Spotlight and The Big Short. Both films give you a cause to root for them, sexual abuse in the church and the destruction of the housing market, respectively. They are well made movies with actors you love. And they scored across the important categories: director, acting, screenplay, and editing. Spotlight is slightly ahead the way I see it. After struggling to find nominations for its actors in the precursors and getting shut out of the Eddie awards, it rallied with two acting nominations and showed up in editing at the Oscars.

Trailing close behind is Mad Max: Fury Road. In second place for most nominations with an impressive 10, the film has resonated across most of the Academy branches. It has great odds to dominate the crafts categories and even wind up with the most wins of the night. One other curious revelation occurred in it's favor: The Martian director Ridley Scott was shockingly snubbed. Scott has been competing with George Miller all season for the best director trophy as a sort of de facto lifetime achievement award. Miller now has a major hurdle out of the way.

Can any of the other films take the top prize? The Martian was ranked high in many pundit's predictions, but the film may have been crippled by its snubs in director and editing. If the campaign can smartly turn Ridley Scott's absence into outrage (a la Ben Affleck and Argo) then maybe the film has a shot. But when it has to go up against Mad Max, Star Wars, and The Revenant in most of the craft categories...how many trophies can it really win?

Bridge of Spies performed well, but came up short for Spielberg and the Coen brothers. It has a shot at supporting actor and score, but not much else. Brooklyn has the fewest nominations of the best picture players, but distributor Fox Searchlight is an expert at navigating the awards field (they've won the past two years). Best Picture may not be in the cards this time, but I wouldn't be shocked if their savvy campaign can eek out best actress or adapted screenplay.

Room is the true dark horse candidate this year. After performing terribly with the guilds, it made a comeback taking a best director slot for Lenny Abrahamson. I would have loved to see young Jacob Tremblay nominated as well, but he didn't stand a chance in the crowded supporting actor field.

Speaking of which: get ready for Sly Stallone. His biggest hurdle was just getting the nomination, and he managed that. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year. He is campaigning, being humble and charming and saying all the right things. Everyone wants to see him on stage, finally taking home a trophy decades after creating Rocky. His closest competition is Mark Rylance. The theatre legend will certainly take the BAFTA in his native UK and has the love for Bridge of Spies on his side, but he is still relatively unknown in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress is the most difficult to predict. Kate Winslet recently took home the Golden Globe, but she didn't have to compete with Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara. The Oscar voters listened to the category fraud and said "eh, we don't care" and threw both ladies in supporting. As recent winners indicate, a beefy lead role in supporting tends to take home the gold. Vikander is the "it girl" of the season and portrays a more dominant character, so she has a slight edge. But that category is anyone's game.

Over in animated feature we saw my GKIDS prediction come true, though not necessarily the way I thought. I'm angry for not sticking with my gut, which told me The Good Dinosaur was out and When Marnie Was There was in...alas. I am surprised The Prophet didn't make the cut, but it seems the branch preferred the more inventive art style of Boy and the World. In any case, Inside Out has this one in the bag. Sorry, Anomalisa.

Now that the entire Academy can vote on the winners of best foreign film and documentary, the widely seen entries are far out in front. So, Son of Saul and Amy should feel comfy in their respective categories. Their closest competitors are the only female directed nominees in any category: Mustang and What Happened Miss Simone?. Though I don't think either of them have the campaign or awards presence to take down their bigger rivals.

As for disappointments on nomination morning, I will again bang the drum to going back to a set number of ten nominees. Academy members are annoyed Star Wars didn't make the cut to boost their ratings. More dire is the absence of Straight Outta Compton from the best picture lineup and the reintroduction of #OscarsSoWhite. I normally don't go in on the Academy for the lack of diversity since they are so often a symptom and not the root problem. By and large it is the industry itself that needs to change. But, when you have a film like Compton that did well with audiences, critics, and the box office? Frankly, it looks ridiculous to not include it among the year's best. Idris Elba's snub stings too. This should have been the year when an actor who continually puts out exceptional work (seriously, has he ever been bad in anything??) finally gets his due. If the Academy went back to a guaranteed ten best picture nominees, look at the bubble films that may have made the cut: Straight Outta Compton and Creed (two excellent films from black filmmakers), Carol (a film from a female perspective so desperately needed), and Inside Out (how does the most inventive film of the year not break out of its ghettoized category?). Any of those films would have made the Best Picture lineup more diverse, more interesting, more emblematic of the wonderful year in film that was 2015.

The Oscar ceremony will air Sunday February 28th. The race can (and probably will) shift a number of ways until then, as studios shovel cash into heavy campaigning in this wide open season. One thing is for certain: as the only black man guaranteed to take the Oscar stage, Chris Rock is going to have a field day.

DGA Nominees Solidify Oscar Hopefuls

The 2016 Directors Guild of America announced their annual nominees today. This is an important precursor in the Oscar race since it is a guild of around 1,600 members (much larger than the 377 strong directors branch of The Academy). In fact, this guild award is often more significant in terms of predicting Best Picture nominees than Best Director at the Oscars, because of the large voting body. So while the directors in the Academy sometimes have a slot for a dark horse, quirky candidate, the DGA shows who is leading the pack. And today's nominations reflect the presumed front-runners of this awards season:

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

In addition, the DGA announced nominees for the inaugural "best directorial achievement for a first time feature film director". Eligible films must be released in New York and Los Angeles within 2015. Foreign films and non-DGA members are eligible for this award.

Best First Feature Film Director
Fernando Coimbra, A Wolf at the Door
Joel Edgerton, The Gift
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Marielle Heller, Diary of a Teenage Girl
Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

So are the five DGA picks our Oscar nominees as well? Likely. But the smaller number of voters at the Academy makes room for more distinctive choices. McCarthy, McKay and Miller would all be first time Oscar nominees (they are first time DGA nominees as well) and one does wonder if the Academy has room for 3 "new" faces. Especially with old guard types like Spielberg and Haynes are waiting in the wings. While one of the three Academy newcomers may be unexpectedly snubbed, the DGA shows that all five films have serious widespread appeal. They are all but certain to show up in Best Picture.

PGA Nominations Shake Up Oscar Race

Hello all!

I have been slacking a bit and not posting thoughts about the Oscar race thus far (though as usual, I have kept the contenders pages pretty up to date with my predictions/thoughts). Perhaps slacking isn't the best word: in addition to my day job, I have been lucky enough to do a good deal of traveling and performing. But now I'm back, and today is the make or break day for many Oscar hopeful films.

Below are the just announced 2016 PGA Nominees:

Motion Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Animated Motion Picture
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Minions
The Peanuts Movie

The PGA is the most important of the guild awards in terms of Oscar prognosticators, because it uses the same preferential ballot as the Academy to decide its Best Picture nominees. Last year, the PGA nominees foresaw 7 our of 8 Oscar nominees (The PGA guarantees 10 slots, while the Academy has anywhere from 5-10). So scoring with the producers is a very good omen.

Last year, the three darkest PGA contenders (Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher) were the ones to miss at the Oscars. With that in mind, the picture most likely left out of the Academy lineup would be the android thriller Ex Machina (though I will jump for joy if it makes the cut). It also means The Hateful Eight is likely dead in the water in terms of Best Picture odds. Room was also left out of the PGA field, but the intimate nature of the film is more in line with Academy tastes, so don't lose hope on it yet.

The most notable snubs are Carol and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. After dominating many a critic award, Carol also failed to net a Art Directors Guild nomination this morning (the equivalent of Best Production Design at the Oscars). Not great tea leaves for the lesbian period drama. Is it perhaps just an "actor's movie" rather than an all around player? It's also bad news for Star Wars' Best Picture hopes. The movie is essentially tailor made for this guild, and the miss here certainly stings. Though the film is dominating the zeitgeist and easily surpassing Avatar's box office record with no signs of showing. The Force Awakens hasn't played by awards season rules so far, and it could still be "too big to ignore" for the Academy.

The Big Short is looking great. It has been scoring across the board and has me thinking it is the real challenger to Spotlight's frontrunner status. The producers have also revived Straight Outta Compton (showing up on a preferential ballot pairs nicely with its SAG ensemble nomination) and Brooklyn (many pundits fretted about the Globes shunning it from their drama category). And is Sicario is emerging as a real threat in the race, despite being a long shot in most major categories? Watch out.

So how does the Oscar race look now? Based on the guilds it's The Big Short vs. Spotlight for Best Picture. With Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian as potential spoilers. Academy Award nominations are announced on January 14th and voting is underway. Expect campaigns to be in high gear this week. "What a lovely day".

2015 Oscars Wrap Up

^The only moment that matters from last night

"Birdman" soars away with the Oscar and so ends another long award season. My final predictions tally came in at 17/24, or 71%. As expected, I got best director wrong. But I told you I would be glad to be wrong on that one. You did predict Inarritu, didn't you?

Most of the awards went according to plan. The biggest surprise is probably "Big Hero 6" stealing the Animated Feature trophy. After failing to win the animated race since the category's inception, Disney now has two in a row. Perhaps we all should have put more stock in the film. Given that there was no clear frontrunner with "The LEGO Movie" absent, Disney's brightly colored Marvel toon was probably the most widely seen.

I'm also kicking myself for not going with my gut on wins for Tom Cross in Editing and "Crisis Hotline" for Documentary Short. I should have seen both of them coming. Flashy editing has an increasing habit of taking the award, and the editing is showy and essential to "Whiplash". Invisible editing fights an uphill battle when the entire Academy is voting instead of individual branches. Thus, Sandra Adair stayed in her seat and "Boyhood" was represented with just a single (deserving) win for Patricia Arquette.

"Birdman" upped its expected award tally by claiming the Best Original Screenplay prize. I guess the thought of the academy splitting Picture, Director, and Writing among its three beloved auteurs (Inarritu, Linklater, and Anderson) was just wishful thinking on my part. I had a feeling the film would pick up an extra win somewhere, but I guessed that sound mixing was a more likely place for it to surprise. Having multiple writers on the ballot usually makes winning unlikely, but it didn't matter this year. "Birdman" put artists and the changing nature of Hollywood as the center of the universe. Its an irresistible setup for the Academy.

In case you somehow missed it, here is the complete list of winners for the 2015 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE: "Birdman"
DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
LEAD ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything
LEAD ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Inarritu et al, "Birdman"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore, "The Imitation Game"
FILM EDITING: Tom Cross, "Whiplash"
CINEMATOGRAPHY:Emmanuel Lubezki, "Birdman"
PRODUCTION DESIGN: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
COSTUME DESIGN: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
ORIGINAL SCORE: Alexandre Desplat, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
ORIGINAL SONG: Common and John Legend, 'Glory' from "Selma"
SOUND EDITING: "American Sniper"
SOUND MIXING: "Whiplash"
VISUAL EFFECTS: "Interstellar"
ANIMATED FEATURE: "Big Hero 6"
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "Citizenfour"
FOREIGN FILM: "Ida"
LIVE ACTION SHORT: "The Phone Call"
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
ANIMATED SHORT: "Feast"

Biggest Winners
"Birdman" - 4
"Grand Budapest Hotel" - 4
"Whiplash" - 3

I will point out that in each category I got incorrect, the film I placed in second took the award. So I didn't lead anyone too far astray if you copied my picks. No angry emails y'all!

Final Thoughts

• "The LEGO Movie was perfectly represented with 'Everything is Awesome'. Will Arnet's Batman even took the stage. The Lego Oscars going out to the nominees in the crowd was a great touch

• How good was Gaga? Maybe it was just the straightforward style of performance that we arent used to seeing from her which had everyone surprised, but she nailed it. Flawless vocals. And thankfully left the gloves off the stage. 

• John Travolta was up there trying to make a moment happen. And Idina was all "please stop touching me now, Im trying my best to smile through this". It was awkward.

• It was a night of great speeches. Graham Moore (who is apparently NOT gay?) gave the most moving one for my money. Patricia Arquette killed it while demanding equal pay/rights for women (and more importantly gave us the best reaction shot/meme of the night from Meryl and JLo). JK Simmons was heartfelt and touching. Eddie Redmayne's excitement was fun to watch. And Julianne Moore was so classy. Good job people, thank you for coming prepared. 

• Except you Mr Inarritu. You knew you were going to win at least one trophy: write something down! 

• I think this is the most beautifully designed Oscars I've ever watched. The set looked gorgeous decorated with all those light bulbs. The animations on the opening number backdrop looked great. The title cards of each category were done in a cool and classy way. And the watercolor look to the In Memoriam segment made it somehow even more heartbraking to see those names up there.

• Speaking of: where the hell were Joan Rivers, Elaine Stritch, and Harold Ramis? Either have a definite set of rules dictating what qualifies a person to be included, or just include everyone. These omissions are occurring way too often. 

• Fun trivia: this is the first time since the Best Picture nominees expanded to more than 5 that each film up for Picture took home a trophy. Perhaps this is why we should have seen Graham Moore winning over Damien Chazelle in screenplay? Everyone got lovin' somewhere.

• NPH did a mostly good job as host. I liked the opening number, even if he did let Jack Black steal it from him. Some jabs such as "Hollywood's whitest...I mean brightest" were great. Others ("you could eat her with a spoon"...seriously who wrote that?) not so much. He knows how to infuse the night with energy, and though I already saw him in his skivvies at Hedwig I certainly wasn't saying no to seconds during that "Birdman" skit. Ultimately though, the music performances and classy speeches had more of an impact than his hosting. 

Til next year, dear awards nerds. 

The Sammys (If I Was an Oscar Voter)

We all know The Oscars get things wrong. That's why I am making my own list of nominees and winners: The Sammys. These awards have no bias against genre movies and aren't swayed by campaigning or screeners. And based on The Hollywood Reporters' Anonymous Oscar Ballot series, I think I've seen more films this year than most Academy members.

The list is just for fun, and I tried to stick with the Academy's rulings on placement. I managed this except in two areas.  1.) "Whiplash" is an original screenplay. If we are going to knock filmmakers for making shorts to get producers interested (often a necessity in today's filmmaking world) then the definition of "adapted" will change dramatically. 2.) "Birdman" is eligible for Score. It's the best score of the year and the music branch was foolish to reject it. 3.) Sadly, I've only seen two foreign films this year so I omitted a Foreign Feature category.

Out of everything I've seen this year, the top three movies in my Best Picture lineup registered the most. I waffled back and forth on which would win my personal award. In a previous post I mentioned that "The LEGO Movie" would take the honor. And while I will probably re-watch that joyous film more than any of the others, I can't shake my experience with "Boyhood". It has seeped into my psyche and thoughts and resonates long after the viewing experience is finished. Its the most stunning accomplishment in film this year, in this blogger's humble opinion. It deserves its place at the top.

Best Picture
10. Wild
9. The Grand Budapest Hotel
8. Guardians of the Galaxy
7. Nightcrawler
6. Snowpiercer
5. Gone Girl
4. Birdman
3. Whiplash
2. The LEGO Movie
1. Boyhood

Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman (runner-up)
Bong Joon-ho, Snowpiercer
Richard Linklater, Boyhood (winner)

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman (winner)
David Oyelowo, Selma (runner-up)
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
GuGu Mbatha-Raw, Belle (runner-up)
Julianne Moore, Still Alice (winner)
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (runner-up)
Edward Norton, Birdman
Chris Pine, Into the Woods
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (winner)

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (winner)
Laura Dern, Wild
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer (runner-up)

Best Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood (runner-up)
Edge of Tomorrow
Gone Girl
Whiplash (winner)

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The LEGO Movie (winner)
Nightcrawler (runner-up)
Whiplash

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl (winner)
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Wild (runner-up)

Best Cinematography
Birdman (winner)
Gone Girl
Mr. Turner (runner-up)
Nightcrawler
Unbroken

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel (runner-up)
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Snowpiercer (winner)

Best Costume Design
Belle
The Grand Budapest Hotel (winner-tie)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
Into the Woods (winner-tie)
Maleficent

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Belle
Guardians of the Galaxy (winner)
Into the Woods (runner-up)
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Best Score
Birdman (winner)
Gone Girl (runner up)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Imitation Game

Best Song
'Everything is Awesome' from "The LEGO Movie" (winner)
'Glory' from "Selma"
'Grateful' from "Beyond the Lights" (runner-up)
'Mercy Is' from "Noah"
'The Last Goodbye' from "The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies"

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (winner)
Edge of Tomorrow
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar (runner-up)
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper (runner-up)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Edge of Tomorrow (winner)
Godzilla
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Guardians of the Galaxy (runner up)
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Whiplash (winner)

Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8 (runner up)
Citizenfour
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga (winner)

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (runner up)
The LEGO Movie (winner)
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

WINS
Boyhood: 3
The LEGO Movie: 3
Whiplash: 3
Birdman: 2
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 1
Edge of Tomorrow: 1
Gone Girl: 1
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 1
Guardians of the Galaxy: 1
Into the Woods: 1
Snowpiercer: 1
Still Alice: 1
Virunga: 1

MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS
Birdman - 8
Boyhood - 6
Gone Girl - 6
Into the Woods - 6
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 5
Nightcrawler - 5
Whiplash - 5
The LEGO Movie - 4
Guardians of the Galaxy - 4
Snowpiercer - 4
Wild - 4
American Sniper - 3
Belle - 3
Edge of Tomorrow - 3
The Imitation Game - 3
Mr. Turner - 3
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies - 2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2
Interstellar - 2
Maleficent - 2
Selma - 2
Unbroken - 2

Your Complete Guide to the Oscars...Even the Shorts

Hello Oscar Watchers

We are just days away from the Academy Awards. Ballots are in and being counted. Potential winners are holding their breath until Sunday.

This is a final breakdown of my thoughts on the season. Every category is included, even those pesky shorts which throw off everyone's Oscar pools. I have pretended to be smart and insightful to those races, but as is the case every year: no one knows what the hell is going to happen with them.

On a personal note, last night I completed my work in a new play (performing to a sold out house!) called "Submission" with Rapidfire Bootleg Theatre. This was the reason I didn't have quite as many postings in February as I would have liked. Though the Contenders section stayed mostly updated, and you can click over there for final rankings and more in depth thoughts on each category. (And in a personal plug: if you wan to know more about "Submission" and the work your favorite blogger has been doing, head to: http://www.rapidfirebootleg.com/)

Without further ado: Who will, could, and should win this years Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "Boyhood"
Should Win: "Boyhood"

The most confounding Oscar duel in recent memory. Both "Birdman" and "Boyhood" have strong claims to the throne. There is a lot of sentiment in "Boyhood" and industry respect for its achievements...but will they award its director for that instead? The PGA is what is pushing "Birdman" out front for me. It won using the same preferential ballot the Oscars now use to determine Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
Should Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"

I'm definitely predicting a split for Picture/Director. With my luck it will probably go opposite the way I predicted it, which is the tricky part of predicting a split. If you are voting in an office pool or a friends Oscar party, you should put down the same film for Picture and Director in case you guess the opposite split. But I'm being silly and stubborn. I just can't see filmmakers looking at Richard Linklater's 12 years of dedication and not awarding him for it.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, "Theory of Everything"
Could Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman" (Bradley Cooper?)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman"

The only acting race with any suspense. Redmayne has picked up the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. That almost always spells Oscar. Keaton has Critics Choice and Globe (comedy) wins, and the film serves as a capstone to his career. He could eek out a win on sentiment. Bradley Cooper is a late entry wild card who threatens to upend the whole thing.

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Could Win: One of the others could win best dressed?
Should Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"

Ms. Moore finally gets her Oscar moment. Four other actresses get to rest easy and enjoy the evening knowing they aren't coming anywhere near the podium.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
Could Win: Edward Norton...if J.K. Simmons wasn't nominated
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

This is as locked up as Best Actress is. Nothing to see here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Could Win: she's got this
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

Arquette has won every supporting actress trophy under the sun. No reason to think she won't be on stage this Sunday.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "Nightcrawler"

Seems like an easy place to reward "Grand Budapest" in a major category. But if "Birdman" is indeed loved enough to win Best Picture, they may check it off here as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game" or "Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

Anything could win this one (except "Inherent Vice"). They may even choose this as a place to reward "American Sniper". Put the four films on the wall and throw a dart, and you'll know just as much about this category as anybody.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Whiplash"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

"Boyhood" seems like the clear winner here, but "Whiplash" gave everyone pause when it took the BAFTA. Both have passionate fanbases and very different styles of editing. In the end Sandra Adair's monumental 12 year task puts "Boyhood" in the lead.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Should Win: "Birdman"

"Birdman" has one guaranteed win of the night here. Lubezki will win his second consecutive Oscar for his dizzying long shots.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game"
Should Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Production design is a key element of any Wes Anderson film and the iconic pink and purple motif should score an easy win. "The Imitation Game" has potential for an upset with similar period decorations as "Lincoln" did, but I don't think team "Budapest" needs to worry.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"
Should Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"

The race is always close in a three-nominee category. But I see no reason why the voters won't stop "Grand Budapest's" domination of the crafts categories stop here. The intricate body makeup of "Guardians of the Galaxy" does provide an opportunity to reward a popular film, so a surprise here is certainly possible.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Into the Woods"
Should Win: "Into the Woods"

"Into the Woods" has under-performed in this category all season long, in what should have been a locked in win for beloved designer Colleen Atwood. So, the stylized garb from "Grand Budapest" steals the gold.

BEST SCORE
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Birdman" (stupidly deemed ineligible)

I'm less confident about "Grand Budapest" here. Johann Johannsson's sweeping score to "Theory of Everything" has won over a great many viewers. But, it seems time for veteran composer Alexandre Desplat to finally win an Oscar, and he's contributed a score to the presumed tech/craft juggernaut of the awards season.

BEST SONG
Will Win: 'Glory' from "Selma"
Could Win: 'I'm Not Gonna Miss You' from "Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me"
Should Win: 'Everything is Awesome' from "The LEGO Movie"

Common and John Legend have been pushing "Glory" hard. And in a year without a mega hit like "Let it Go" or "Skyfall", it allows the Academy to say "see, we gave 'Selma' something!". Though the opportunity to award the Alzheimer afflicted Glenn Campbell a final trophy could give him the sentiment vote.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Should Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"

"Interstellar" would appear to have more support given its multiple nominations tally. But it has proven to be a divisive film. And the team on "Apes" has taken home multiple guild awards and pushed the boundaries of visual effects.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: "American Sniper"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies"

Most voters have no idea what good sound design entails, so usually the loudest film wins. War films do very well, and they will want to give the highest grossing best picture nominee something. It should be an easy get for "American Sniper".

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "American Sniper" or "Birdman"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

Those who don't know the difference between editing and mixing might be tempted to check off "American Sniper" for both categories. But they have the opportunity to vote for "Whiplash" in this one, and there is more passionate support for that movie in the Academy. And the drums are, you know, loud.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will Win: "Ida"
Could Win: "Wild Tales"
Should Win: "Ida"

"Ida" has a cinematography nomination, and many voters probably saw this on Netflix before they even received screeners. It has a powerful story and wide enough reach to take home the trophy. But, if voters aren't in the mood for a depressing film about the Holocaust, the stylish and fun "Wild Tales" will pick up their vote.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2"
Could Win: "Big Hero 6"
Should Win: "The LEGO Movie" (not nominated for reasons beyond comprehension)

Animation professionals might vote for the hand drawn "The Tale of Princess Kaguya", but "How to Train Your Dragon 2" looks gorgeous and works on basically every level. Unless voters simply check off the Disney title, "Dragon" should repeat its Globe win this Sunday.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: "CitizenFour"
Could Win: "Virunga"
Should Win: "Finding Vivian Maier"

"Citizenfour" has been picking up basically every documentary prize. I don't think the heart wrenching tale of the mountain gorillas in "Virguna" can surpass it, as hard as Netflix has been campaigning.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Will Win: "The Phone Call"
Could Win: "Boogaloo and Graham" or "Parvaneh"
Should Win: "The Phone Call"

"The Phone Call" features Academy award nominee Sally Hawkins as a crisis hotline operator who tries to talk a widower (Jim Broadbent) out of committing suicide. She gives a powerful performance that anchors the film. Its competitor is the upbeat and ridiculous "Boogaloo and Graham" about two young brothers whose chickens face euthanasia amidst a war in Ireland...hard to describe, just watch it. The adorable film will stand out for its upbeat tempo, but will it be enough to overcome the emotional gut punch of "The Phone Call"?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: "Johanna"
Could Win: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
Should Win: "Our Curse"

A tough race to call between a worthy crop of nominees. "Johanna" follows a dying Polish women trying to pass on wisdom to her 5 year old son in her last months before she dies. "Crisis Hotline" follows a crisis phone room where responders attempt to talk down suicidal veterans. I expect the vote will be very close. "Crisis Hotline" feels more important, and successful suicide interventions stir powerful emotions. But the story of Joanna is so deeply personal, and her strength in facing death leaves too deep an impact to ignore.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: "Feast"
Could Win: "The Dam Keeper"
Should Win: "The Dam Keeper"

"Feast" has the Disney touch and played before "Big Hero 6", so it will be the most widely seen nominee. "The Dam Keeper" features gorgeous animation and a poignant (though dark) story of a bullied pig who runs a windmill that protects his anthropomorphic town from pollution. Its probably the better film than the cutesy Disney fare, but with the entire Academy now voting on the short categories, Disney has the edge.

The Oscar is Officially Up for Grabs

Raise your hand if you're confused.

"Boyhood" was the clear leader of awards season, taking nearly every critics prize and the Golden Globe. Then the guilds swerved in a different direction as "Birdman" laid claim to the important SAG, PGA, and DGA. We assumed Inarritu's film was the one to beat, but the Brits slapped it down, awarding "Boyhood" with three trophies including picture and director.

What does it all mean!?

Let's start with the Directors Guild. Many assumed this would still be Linklater's to lose despite the film stumbling with guild awards. According to many reports, there were audible gasps when Alejandro G Inarritu's name was called. So the voting must have been close. The winner of this guild award has gone on to claim the corresponding Oscar trophy 90% of the time since 2004. A more impressive stat for "Birdman": the only film to claim all three top guild awards and lose Best Picture at the Oscar's was "Apollo 13" in 1995. It was unseated by "Braveheart".

Will this be a repeat of 1995? If we follow the statistics with the BAFTA awards it may be. These kudos hardly ever worked as an Oscar predictor until they changed their voting procedures six years ago. And in that time their choice for Best Picture has gone on to claim the Oscar every year. "Boyhood" won three out of five nominations at the British ceremony while, "Birdman" took just one out of a whopping ten.

It is worth noting that "Braveheart" took the Writers Guild award in 1995, so it did have one major precursor going into the Academy Awards. The WGA has not announced winners yet, but its status as an Oscar barometer is always shaky. Thanks to a slew of eligibility rules in the guild, eventual Academy nominees and winners are frequently shunned from their ceremony. This year "Birdman" failed to meet requirements, and the group placed "Whiplash" in original screenplay. That film will compete in the adapted race on Oscar night. If Richard Linklater could claim the WGA prize for "Boyhood", it would directly mirror 1995, and carve a clear path to victory. Though I think Wes Anderson will have something to say about that.

Speaking of "The Grand Budapest Hotel", the film forms an interesting trio with the two frontrunners. Wes Anderson, Inarritu, and Linklater are all nominated for Picture, Director, and Writer of their respective movies. If all three films are loved, it stands to reason the Academy could spread the wealth and reward them all. Quirky films tend to do well in Original Screenplay ("Her", "Eternal Sunshine") and Anderson is the reigning king of quirk. I can certainly see a scenario where Anderson takes Screenplay, and Linklater and Inarritu split Picture and Director. ...The problem is I cant grasp who takes which.

Personally, I think "Boyhood" should be the one to take it. It's an introspective film that finds magic in the everyday. It finds meaning in the seemingly mundane and asks the audience to contemplate its own lives. "Boyhood" will likely be remembered as a classic for a long time, versus the audacious "Birdman". Not that I wish to belittle "Birdman" in the least, but it feels like something that is hot right now, versus something that will stay hot through the ages. Come to think of it, the way Oscar voters usually vote, that means it probably will take Best Picture.

BAFTA Awards: Complete Winners List

The 67th Annual BAFTA Awards Ceremony has just begun. BBC American wont be airing the ceremony until later tonight at 8pm EST. If you simply cannot wait until then, have no fear! I will be updating the winners as they are announced on this page. Can "Boyhood" get a much needed final wind over "Birdman's" domination of the guild awards? Complete winners listed below.

BEST PICTURE
"Boyhood"

BEST DIRECTOR
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"

BEST ACTOR
Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Anthony McCarten, "The Theory of Everything"

BEST EDITING
Tom Cross, "Whiplash"

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, "Birdman"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Milena Canonero, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR-STYLING
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC
Alexandre Desplat, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

BEST SOUND DESIGN
"Whiplash"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"Interstellar"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Ida"

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Citizenfour"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
"The LEGO Movie"

RISING STAR AWARD
Jack O'Connell

BEST BRITISH FILM
"The Theory of Everything"

OUTSTANDING BRITISH DEBUT
Stephen Beresford and David Livingstone, "Pride"

BEST BRITISH SHORT
"Boogaloo and Graham"

BEST BRITISH ANIMATED SHORT
"The Bigger Picture"

OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTION TO BRITISH CINEMA
BBC Films

The Guilds Create a Close Oscar Race with "Birdman" vs "Boyhood"

So to everyone who complained and yammered that this year's Oscars were too predictable: are you happy now? The PGA and SAG have doled out their annual kudos and things did not go as planned. "Birdman" has emerged as a likely upset to Richard Linklater's 12 year spanning "Boyhood". I personally had "Birdman" in second place for quite sometime, but other pundits and bloggers seemed less convinced. "Boyhood" was always a bit of an underdog (low budget, won't appeal to the below the line branches, etc) and has had a target on its back for a while. Inarritu's stunning display of filmmaking is almost the polar opposite film, and the clear alternative for those not interested in the front-runner. In fact, it just became the front-runner.

If you weren't paying attention, the guild winners were the following:

PGA
Best Picture: "Birdman"

SAG
Best Ensemble: "Birdman"
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

While the SAG ensemble win was expected, the citation from the Producers guild is huge. "Boyhood" was the expected winner, but it isn't the typical type of movie that appeals to producers. Had they not gone with it, I expected them to opt for one of the well received blockbusters ("American Sniper" or "Gone Girl"), or the polished bio-pic ("The Imitation Game"). The producers guild also utilizes the same preferential balloting system that the Academy uses. Not to mention many members of this guild are also Academy members.

In the blink of an eye, "Birdman" just became the new leader of the pack. Can it actually win the Oscar? A great deal of fuss has been made over its lack of an editing nomination. And awards geeks will be quick to tell you that a film has not won Best Picture at the Oscars without an editing nomination since "Ordinary People", over three decades ago in 1980. But since the Oscars moved to the "anywhere-from-5-to-10-nominees" era, rules have been consistently broken, and the old stats add up to nothing. "Birdman" has support in  the important directing, acting, and writing branches; as well as cinematography and sound. Can it win? Absolutely.

It can win because of the actors. The Actor's branch is the largest branch of the Academy with over one thousand members. "Birdman" speaks directly to them. The narrative of a performer trying to stay relevant with meaningful work, and find his place in a world overrun with loud superhero movies, is likely to resonate with the voting body. Consider past winners like "Shakespeare in Love", "The Artist", "Chicago", and "Argo". They are all about performers triumphing.

"Boyhood" isn't down for the count, but the race just got a whole lot tougher for the little movie that could. I have heard many complain that if you remove the "gimmick" of filming for 12 years, then you are left with nothing. To which I say: you are fools. The so called "gimmick" of telling a story over time is the entire point, and aides the films reflective, introspective effect. One could also say the "continuous shot" effect in "Birdman" is a gimmick. Without it, the movie would read as a stage play captured on film. Speaking in such terms devalues the accomplishments of each film, and I'm growing tired of hearing it on every website that mentions the Oscar race. Since when is using a narrative device a "gimmick"?

All awards season grievances aside, we may have to look to the DGA as the final glimmer in our crystal balls.  The ACE Eddie awards will be handed out on Sunday. However, they split the best editing award into two categories for drama and comedy. Both "Birdman" and "Boyhood" are likely to be the winners in their respective categories, so that won't clear anything up. Though should one of them lose (to say "Grand Budapest" or "Whiplash"), that would be a major red flag. The director's could be a big piece of the puzzle this year.

Over in the acting categories, SAG has proved there is only one category with any competition. Eddie Redmayne's win there is a big deal for him. It is entirely likely he can take the BAFTA as well and turn the conversation away from Michael Keaton. I would argue Keaton has the standout behind the scenes narrative this year, which is often more important that the onscreen narrative when it comes to winning awards. Just ask last year's champ Matthew McConaughey. I think this will be a nail biter until the envelope is opened. But I'm glad for the suspense. I mean, Best Actress might as well be called "Julianne Moore and the Four Women Who Will Lose to Her".

Our quiet little awards race just got a big shakeup. And there's still room for more maneuvering. Can you imagine if the DGA gave their best director prize to Wes Anderson?

Multiple Oscar Nominees by the Numbers

For your convenience, all multiple Oscar nominees listed by number of nominations. (Single nominees excluded...or else this list would go one for too long for anyone to pay attention).

Birdman - 9
Picture
Director
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 9
Picture
Director
Original Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design
Makeup/Hairstyling
Score

The Imitation Game - 8
Picture
Director
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Production Design
Score

American Sniper - 6
Picture
Lead Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

Boyhood - 6
Picture
Director
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Editing

The Theory of Everything - 5
Picture
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Adapted Screenpaly
Score

Whiplash - 5
Picture
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Sound Mixing

Foxcatcher - 5
Director
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Makeup/Hairstyling

Interstellar - 5
Production Design
Score
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects

Mr. Turner - 4
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design
Score

Into the Woods - 3
Supporting Actress
Production Design
Costume Design

Unbroken - 3
Cinematography
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

Selma - 2
Picture
Song

Inherent Vice - 2
Adapted Screenplay
Costume Design

Guardians of the Galaxy - 2
Makeup/Hairstyling
Visual Effects

Wild - 2
Lead Actress
Supporting Actress

Everything is Not Awesome with the Oscars

As is usually the case come nomination morning, I am a bundle of mixed emotions. The confusing and befuddling Oscar season resulted in a head scratching list of snubs and surprises. I have lots of thoughts on them all, but need to get a big one off my chest or I wont be able to continue.

Where the hell is "The LEGO Movie"!?! I mean seriously you guys, WHAT FRESH HELL IS THIS? I was asked to contribute a top ten films list for SmashCut and I'm going to spoil my number 1 for you: It was the "The LEGO Movie" (Sorry Karl, I'm angry). If the stuffy old guys of the Academy can watch that film and not be won over by the sheer joy it exudes, I just don't know how to take it all seriously. The film managed a nomination for Best Song, but its exclusion in the animated race baffles me. At least writer/director Phil Lord is taking it all in stride and posted a great picture of his own LEGO-constructed Oscar statuette.

Dumbledore best sums up my thoughts on the matter:

The disheartening reality I was confronted with as I sifted through the list: campaigns matter. Besides the shafted minifigs, everyone is going to be talking about "Selma" and "Gone Girl" today. Their absence in the Best Picture race is an example of just how white/straight/old/male the voting body is. For the first time since 1999, there are no actors of color nominated. The directors branch could have nominated their first ever black female director. A woman could have won Best Original Screenplay. But the thing both films have in common is their failure in campaigning.

David Fincher famously doesn't campaign for awards. As a result Fox wasn't able to run the show the way they would have liked with "Gone Girl". I knew Fincher essentially took himself out of the running for director, and I knew the brilliant score would go above the music branch's head. But its absence in Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography is alarming. Its sole nod is in the form of Rosamund Pike. I would argue that her citation is thanks to "Gone Girl" producer Reese Witherspoon. Reese has been working the field hard for her film "Wild", and has been championing her good friend Pike all season. It is one of the most unique offerings of the year and more deserving of just one nomination.

"Selma" on the other hand campaigned in the "wrong" way. It had a serious lack of support in the precursor awards because screeners were not sent to most of the guilds.  True, they did get DVDs to Academy members, but Academy voters have a stack of screeners a mile high and they probably don't have time to watch them all. And many are inclined to use nominees/winners of the precursor awards as a way to move a film to the top of their pile. If a member hadn't seen "Grand Budapest" by last week, you can bet they watched it after it took that surprise Globe win. My hunch is that "Selma" was too thematically important to ignore, and even those who didn't watch it ranked it somewhere on their Best Picture ballot. But since the film didn't play by the preordained rules of getting Oscar nominations, it was slapped out of every other category, save Best Song.

Other Reactions, in no particular order:

*"Nightcrawler" failed to make use of its late booming surge. Its sole nomination came from Best Original Screenplay. Perhaps the mostly LA based voters didn't want to closely examine their own values (which is what the film kind of forces you to do). Jake Gyllenhaal gets the boot in favor of Oscars apparent new golden boy: Bradley Cooper. This is Cooper's third nomination in three years.

*Speaking of Cooper, "American Sniper" really caught fire at just the right moment. It surprised with six nominations and is a true testament to how a film can overcome rather lukewarm reception in terms of reviews and box office.

*I'm SO HAPPY for Laura Dern. I'm bummed there wasn't also room for Rene Russo and Tilda Swinton, but Dern gives a beautiful understated performance.

*"Birdman's" lack of editing nomination is just bizarre. Is it because there are less cuts in the movie? Lemme break it down for you: The fact that the whole thing looks like one take and you can't tell where the cuts are? THAT'S GREAT EDITING PEOPLE.

*Glad I stuck to my guns on several choices people told me I was crazy for. First being "X-Men" for Best Visual Effects. This marks the first Oscar nomination for any X-Men film, and the team deserves it. Though who knew they would shun "The Hobbit" in favor of "Captain America"?

*Other wild card I got behind: "Beyond the Lights" best song bid 'Grateful'. The movie didn't get much attention, but the original songs were amazing. And if Gugu Mbatha-Raw couldn't get traction for this (or "Belle") I'm glad it managed something. Give it a listen. Bow down to Dianne Warren. Fall in love with Rita Ora. You're welcome.

*Best Score is pissing me off. "Theory of Everything" is going to win that isn't it? I still can't recall any aspect of the scoring to that film. Besides the stellar performances, the whole thing was a big let down for me. Again, the music of "Gone Girl" is haunting my nightmares and should absolutely be here.

*Who would have thought Best Actress could find room for a foreign language performance that barely found any traction with precursors? "Two Days, One Night" didn't even make the Foreign Language film shortlist. Marion Cotillard won over the Boston and New York critics...and that's about it. But obviously, the Academy held Jennifer Aniston's past work in comedy against her (comedy is the bastard child of drama you see #TemptedToRepostDumbledoreGIF) and past winner Marion was able to slide in. Rough morning for Jennifer Aniston, but I can't deny that I literally jumped up and down in bed when Cotillard's name was announced.

The Contenders pages currently feature all the nominees highlighted in gold...so you can see exactly how right or wrong I was at every step. Mostly I had one wrong per category, though I correctly predicted Best Picture, Makeup/Hair, and Supporting Actor with perfect accuracy. Soon I will switch each page over to rankings of just the nominees and their likelihood of winning.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: In my haste at posting this article, I forgot the most entertaining moment of the nominations announcement. Cheryl Boone Isaacs read Best Cinematography nominee Dick Pope ("Mr. Turner") as: "Dick Poop". I. DIED. Dick Poop > Adele Dazeem.

And just because why not: