"The Sammys" 2016: If I Was an Oscar Voter

After sifting through as many movies as I could, and listening to an awards race that hasn't always represented my own personal tastes, I've whittled down my own personal picks for who should be the nominees and winners this year.

The hardest category by far was Cinematography. It has been a banner year for the craft and I could have easily filled out ten nomination slots. I'm still not happy with my lineup because I was forced to leave out stunning photography from the likes of Carol, Brooklyn, and Black Mass. But I forced myself to make some Sophie's choices and get to five nominees.

As for best picture, the year in film came down to two defining movie-going experiences. Brooklyn and Mad Max: Fury Road. It is a crime that neither has much hope at an actual Oscar win for Best Picture.

One one hand is George Miller's magnum opus. The director revisits his crown jewel franchise after nearly four decades, brings a celebrated cinematographer out of retirement, suffers an unprecedented amount of production woes and setbacks, and rockets his cast through the desert on actual tricked out rigs. The result is a nearly wordless action-opera raging with adrenaline, that has a surprising amount to say about survival, women, greed, and humanity. And it does so through wondrous visual storytelling that creates a world so fully realized, it seems to have existed even before Miller set foot there. After the dust settles on this awards season, Mad Max will be long remembered as the year's crowning achievement.

In the other hand sits Brooklyn. Detractors have jabbed the film for being too "classic" or predictable in its story. I would argue that crafting a classic romance such as this in toady's attention deficit society is a near impossible feat. The story is rather straightforward, but skillfully adapted to bring each character to life and has the audience hanging on every moment. Saoirse Ronan proves herself to be one of the most captivating actors of her generation. As Eilis, her eyes soak in as much emotion as they give back, and through subtle shifts in voice and physicality, she transforms into a new woman before our eyes.

I oscillated between these two stunning films over and over. But eventually, the emotional gut punch of Brooklyn cemented the film as my winner. I may not have traveled across the Atlantic, but the film's conception of new beginnings and "home" struck a chord. A year after graduating college, I hopped on a bus with nothing but two large bags and an address, and moved to New York. The mixed feelings of excitement and liberation, coupled with dread and anxiety, that this sort of "starting over" brings has never been so perfectly captured on film. Rarely has a film made me feel as emotionally full as Brooklyn. It deserves its spot at the top.

Now to the good stuff: The 2016 "Sammys"

Best Picture
10.) Spy
9.) Carol
8.) The Martian
7.) Room
6.) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5.) Ex Machina
4.) Spotlight
3.) Inside Out
2.) Mad Max: Fury Road
1.) Brooklyn

Best Director
John Crowley Brooklyn
Pete Docter, Inside Out
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (runner-up)

Best Actor
Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
Matt Damon, The Martian (runner-up)
Leonardo Dicaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jacob Tremblay, Room (winner)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Brie Larson, Room (runner-up)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (winner)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Supporting Actor
Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (runner-up)
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina (winner)
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
Rose Byrne, Spy
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Sarah Paulson, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (winner)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Original Screenplay
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out (runner-up)
Spotlight (winner)
Spy

Best Adapted Screenplay
45 Years
Brooklyn (winner)
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out (winner)
The Prophet
When Marnie Was There (runner-up)

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Sicario (runner-up)
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Cinematography
It Follows
The Revenant (winner)
Macbeth
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Sicario

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak (winner)
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn (winner)
Carol (runner-up)
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Carol
Macbeth (runner-up)
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Mr. Holmes

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (winner)

Best Score
The Hateful Eight
It Follows (winner)
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)

Best Sound Editing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Martian
Sicario (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing
Love and Mercy
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)
Straight Outta Compton

Best Ensemble
Dope (runner-up)
The Martian
Spotlight (winner)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

Best Breakthrough Performer
Abraham Attah
John Boyega
Daisy Ridley (runner-up)
Jacob Tremblay
Alicia Vikander (winner)

Biggest Disappointment of the Year
The Danish Girl

Entertainer of the Year
Cate Blanchett
Michael Fassbender
Harrison Ford
Domhnall Gleeson
Tom Hardy
Jennifer Lawrence
Pixar Animation Studios (winner)
Chris Pratt
Amy Schumer
Charlize Theron
Alicia Vikander


WINS
Mad Max: Fury Road - 5
Brooklyn - 4
Ex Machina - 2
Spotlight - 2
Crimson Peak  - 1
Inside Out - 1
It Follows - 1
Room - 1
The Revenant  - 1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 1

Final Predictions: Who Will Win?

After an awards season full of surprises and shifting front-runners, we are almost at Oscar night. I have compiled a breakdown of every Oscar category (even the shorts!) and who I'm placing bets on to emerge victorious. If you want to be the envy of your Oscar viewing party or win the office pool, look no further. Of course, no one truly knows what will happen, or what goes on in the minds of Academy voters (and surprises always make the evening fun), but this is the best guess and final word on the 2016 Oscars.

I have withheld on including a "should win" citation because I am releasing my annual list of personal nominees and winners tomorrow before the ceremony. Stay tuned!

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight

The guilds have given us mixed tea leaves by going three ways: SAG (actors) chose Spotlight, PGA (producers) chose The Big Short, and the DGA (directors) chose The Revenant. The PGA uses the same preferential ballot that the Oscars use to determine Best Picture, and that alone makes me want to go with the timely The Big Short. However, The Revenant train gained steam late in the game, just after PGA voting and picked up the BAFTA along the way and leads with nominations. I can't see The Big Short winning any other category except adapted screenplay, while Leo's slog through the snow could easily net 4-5 wins. The race is the closest I've ever seen, but I have to put money on The Revenant.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Winning back to back director prizes is rare (only John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz have achieved that feat), but Inarritu looks poised to strike gold again. He has the Globes, BAFTA, and (most importantly) DGA backing his claim. George Miller helmed the other epic in contention, but he really needed the guild or the Brits to speak up for him to be more of a threat. 

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo...but not really

Leo has run the table with the Critics, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. All of Hollywood is in agreement that it is finally time to give the overdue actor his Oscar and I can't see anything slowing him down. Bryan Cranston is charming and a savvy campaigner (he was really Argo's secret Oscar weapon), but as the sole nominee from Trumbo, he will have to be content to watch from his seat.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Brie Larson is just about as locked up as Leo, similarly claiming nearly every best actress prize this season. Some have tried to throw mystery into the race by saying her absence in the film's second half makes her vulnerable. But her main challenger (Ronan) really needed the BAFTA to come to her aide...and they didnt. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Could Win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Sometimes getting the nomination is the biggest hurdle. And now that Sly has crossed it, there is no reason not to expect "the champ" on the Oscar stage. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year (he failed to win for Rocky almost four decades ago) and he has been charming his way through Oscar season. Many pundits think his challenger is Mark Rylance, but that Hollywood outsider has been working on a new play and is not one to actively campaign. The real threat to Mr. Balboa is Hardy, who stars in not one, but two best picture nominees. It's a long shot, but he stands a small chance at getting swept in with The Revenant.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Vikander benefits from having a lead performance (aka more screentime) in a supporting category, and voters will have also watched her in the twice nominated Ex Machina. Kate Winslet has taken the Globe and BAFTA for her powerful role in Steve Jobs, but only when she was not competing against Viaknder's role in The Danish Girl. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Straight Outta Compton

Spotlight has this one in the bag and it is likely the film's only win of the night. Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton would be more of a threat if either had broke into the best picture field, or amassed precursor support. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Big Short

Could Win: The Martian

Another easy call for a well liked best picture frontrunner. It's possible The Martian or Room could come out of left field for a win (they only have one credited writer, which the Academy likes), but The Big Short tackled a complicated subject well and should take this one in a landslide.  

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Big Short

The winner here is often the one with the "most" editing, or most obvious editing (see: Whiplash over Boyhood). So the immense, un-ending car chase of Mad Max should easily find votes here. Though The Big Short has been singled out for its stylish editing, and if it wins this category, look out for the film to surprise in best picture at the end of the night.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

It looks like a three-peat for Emmanuel Lubezki. His work on The Revenant has swept the awards circuit and the Oscars will follow suit. If a surprise is lurking its John Seale, who came out of retirement to shoot the beautiful chaos of Mad Max.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: Bridge of Spies

The production design in Mad Max is responsible for creating an entire world, from the tricked out death-mobiles to the cult members fortress. Unless they feel like rewarding a meticulously done period piece (and a best picture winner likely to go home empty handed) with Bridge of Spies, this is a sure bet for Mad Max. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Danish Girl...or any of them

One of the hardest categories to predict. Truly, all five have a shot at winning. I think voters will appreciate the overall look and tone of Mad Max, and voters will check this one off to go with the movie's other two design wins. The Danish Girl has further support with a production design and two acting nominations, so the period gowns could score here. Though the same can be said for Carol. It'll be close, but I'm going for a Mad Max design sweep.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Mad Max has the most makeup, and its also the boldest. As said above, the design elements are necessary aides for the film's world building. In The Revenant, everyone just looks dirty.

BEST SCORE

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Quentin Tarantino has been beating the drum loudly for legendary composer Ennio Morricone to finally take home a competitive Oscar after scoring (literally) hundreds of films. However, composers names do not appear on the Oscar ballot, so voters who are unaware of that narrative might go for John William's pronounced work on the latest Star Wars (his 50th nomination).

BEST SONG

Will Win: 'Til it Happens to You', The Hunting Ground

Could Win: 'Earned it', Fifty Shades of Grey

Eighth time should be the charm for perennial Oscar loser Dianne Warren. With no anthemic radio hit in contention this year, the Warren/Lady Gaga collaboration creates a winner with a powerful message at its core. The Weekend could potentially rain on their parade thanks to a boost from his recent Grammy performance and wins. Ultimately, I think many voters might balk at awarding Fifty Shades of Grey an Oscar, no matter how good the song is. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant

Precedent tells us that a best picture nominee will win this category if one is in contention. But Star Wars screams visual effects more than any other film and it's an easy place for them to reward the biggest movie of the year. Mad Max might win over actual effects artists for its practical work, and The Revenant could pull of an upset for the strikingly realistic bear attack scene. 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

The corresponding guild does not announce winners until tonight, so we are a bit blind in this category. The loudest film tends to win, and it helps to be a best picture nominee. The car chases and explosions should give this to Mad Max, but don't count out the intense battle sequences of The Revenant. 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I'm dangerously picking a split in the sound categories. While this is not uncommon, it is a risky move since most voters don't know what the difference between the categories are, and you can pick the wrong split. My thought is that voters will appreciate the soundscape of the wilderness that comes together during The Revenant's many dialogue free stretches. But Mad Max could easily get checked off for both editing and mixing. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Inside Out

Don't overthink this one you guys. Nothing else stands a chance. Sorry, Anomalisa.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Amy

Could Win: Cartel Land

Amy has the perfect storm of critical and popular success. Its an excellent documentary and its also the most widely seen of the bunch. Netlfix has poured tons of money into its campaign for What Happened Miss Simone?, and if it wasn't competing against a more popular music doc, it might win. But the real spoiler is the powerful and timely Cartel Land, which has struck a chord with many Academy voters.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Son of Saul

Could Win: Mustang

If voters actually watched all the nominees, then this would be a real horse race between the two frontrunners. But many members vote without seeing them all (or any of them, sadly). So the film about the holocaust and with more name recognition will take it. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Could Win: Bear Story

Both frontrunners contain the heartwarming "aww" factor necessary to win this category. Sanjay's Super Team benefits from a wide release and an army of Pixar/Disney voters in the Academy who are bound to support it. Bear Story has made its way to Netflix and is reminiscent of the quirky art direction of past winner Mr. Hublot. I give Pixar the edge in a close race.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Could Win: Body Team 12 or Girl in the River

Remember how I mentioned that not every voters sees all the films? They may not have seen all the shorts but the older members of the Academy will know Claude Lanzmann and his film Shoah. So he may get votes via name recognition as a way to honor him. Body Team 12 and Girl in the River received more favorable reviews, and will get votes from those who have watched the films. 

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Ave Maria

Could Win: Shok

Ave Maria is the lightest film of the bunch. While critics and audiences are divided over the success of its comedy, the tone will set it apart from its heavier competition. If the Academy is willing to embrace weightier subject matter, they might lean towards Shok. The film is set in the Kosovo war and has been cited for its stellar screenplay and central performance. 

NERDS Full Cast Announced!

The latest musical to make a last minute announcement for this season was the long gestating NERDS. The new musical comedy chronicles the rivalry of Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, and will being previews at the Longacre Theatre on April 1st, with an opening night set for April 24th.

Today, the creative team announced Tony nominee Rory O'Malley (Book of Mormon) and Bryan Fenkart (Memphis) will lead the company as Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, respectively. The cast will also feature Lindsay Mendez as Myrtle, Patti Murin as Sally, Benny Elledge as Steve Wozniak, Rob Morrison as Paul Allen, and Kevin Pariseau as Tom Watson.

NERDS features book and lyrics by Jordan Allen-Dutton & Erik Weiner, music by Hal Goldberg, direction by Casey Hushion, and choreography by Joshua Bergasse. Additional choreography from Denis Jones.

Contenders pages will be updated to reflect this new set of Nerds!