I have withheld on including a "should win" citation because I am releasing my annual list of personal nominees and winners tomorrow before the ceremony. Stay tuned!
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight
The guilds have given us mixed tea leaves by going three ways: SAG (actors) chose Spotlight, PGA (producers) chose The Big Short, and the DGA (directors) chose The Revenant. The PGA uses the same preferential ballot that the Oscars use to determine Best Picture, and that alone makes me want to go with the timely The Big Short. However, The Revenant train gained steam late in the game, just after PGA voting and picked up the BAFTA along the way and leads with nominations. I can't see The Big Short winning any other category except adapted screenplay, while Leo's slog through the snow could easily net 4-5 wins. The race is the closest I've ever seen, but I have to put money on The Revenant.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Winning back to back director prizes is rare (only John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz have achieved that feat), but Inarritu looks poised to strike gold again. He has the Globes, BAFTA, and (most importantly) DGA backing his claim. George Miller helmed the other epic in contention, but he really needed the guild or the Brits to speak up for him to be more of a threat.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo...but not really
Leo has run the table with the Critics, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. All of Hollywood is in agreement that it is finally time to give the overdue actor his Oscar and I can't see anything slowing him down. Bryan Cranston is charming and a savvy campaigner (he was really Argo's secret Oscar weapon), but as the sole nominee from Trumbo, he will have to be content to watch from his seat.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Brie Larson is just about as locked up as Leo, similarly claiming nearly every best actress prize this season. Some have tried to throw mystery into the race by saying her absence in the film's second half makes her vulnerable. But her main challenger (Ronan) really needed the BAFTA to come to her aide...and they didnt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Sometimes getting the nomination is the biggest hurdle. And now that Sly has crossed it, there is no reason not to expect "the champ" on the Oscar stage. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year (he failed to win for Rocky almost four decades ago) and he has been charming his way through Oscar season. Many pundits think his challenger is Mark Rylance, but that Hollywood outsider has been working on a new play and is not one to actively campaign. The real threat to Mr. Balboa is Hardy, who stars in not one, but two best picture nominees. It's a long shot, but he stands a small chance at getting swept in with The Revenant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Vikander benefits from having a lead performance (aka more screentime) in a supporting category, and voters will have also watched her in the twice nominated Ex Machina. Kate Winslet has taken the Globe and BAFTA for her powerful role in Steve Jobs, but only when she was not competing against Viaknder's role in The Danish Girl.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight has this one in the bag and it is likely the film's only win of the night. Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton would be more of a threat if either had broke into the best picture field, or amassed precursor support.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: The Martian
Another easy call for a well liked best picture frontrunner. It's possible The Martian or Room could come out of left field for a win (they only have one credited writer, which the Academy likes), but The Big Short tackled a complicated subject well and should take this one in a landslide.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
The winner here is often the one with the "most" editing, or most obvious editing (see: Whiplash over Boyhood). So the immense, un-ending car chase of Mad Max should easily find votes here. Though The Big Short has been singled out for its stylish editing, and if it wins this category, look out for the film to surprise in best picture at the end of the night.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
It looks like a three-peat for Emmanuel Lubezki. His work on The Revenant has swept the awards circuit and the Oscars will follow suit. If a surprise is lurking its John Seale, who came out of retirement to shoot the beautiful chaos of Mad Max.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Bridge of Spies
The production design in Mad Max is responsible for creating an entire world, from the tricked out death-mobiles to the cult members fortress. Unless they feel like rewarding a meticulously done period piece (and a best picture winner likely to go home empty handed) with Bridge of Spies, this is a sure bet for Mad Max.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Danish Girl...or any of them
One of the hardest categories to predict. Truly, all five have a shot at winning. I think voters will appreciate the overall look and tone of Mad Max, and voters will check this one off to go with the movie's other two design wins. The Danish Girl has further support with a production design and two acting nominations, so the period gowns could score here. Though the same can be said for Carol. It'll be close, but I'm going for a Mad Max design sweep.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Mad Max has the most makeup, and its also the boldest. As said above, the design elements are necessary aides for the film's world building. In The Revenant, everyone just looks dirty.
BEST SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Quentin Tarantino has been beating the drum loudly for legendary composer Ennio Morricone to finally take home a competitive Oscar after scoring (literally) hundreds of films. However, composers names do not appear on the Oscar ballot, so voters who are unaware of that narrative might go for John William's pronounced work on the latest Star Wars (his 50th nomination).
BEST SONG
Will Win: 'Til it Happens to You', The Hunting Ground
Could Win: 'Earned it', Fifty Shades of Grey
Eighth time should be the charm for perennial Oscar loser Dianne Warren. With no anthemic radio hit in contention this year, the Warren/Lady Gaga collaboration creates a winner with a powerful message at its core. The Weekend could potentially rain on their parade thanks to a boost from his recent Grammy performance and wins. Ultimately, I think many voters might balk at awarding Fifty Shades of Grey an Oscar, no matter how good the song is.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant
Precedent tells us that a best picture nominee will win this category if one is in contention. But Star Wars screams visual effects more than any other film and it's an easy place for them to reward the biggest movie of the year. Mad Max might win over actual effects artists for its practical work, and The Revenant could pull of an upset for the strikingly realistic bear attack scene.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
The corresponding guild does not announce winners until tonight, so we are a bit blind in this category. The loudest film tends to win, and it helps to be a best picture nominee. The car chases and explosions should give this to Mad Max, but don't count out the intense battle sequences of The Revenant.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I'm dangerously picking a split in the sound categories. While this is not uncommon, it is a risky move since most voters don't know what the difference between the categories are, and you can pick the wrong split. My thought is that voters will appreciate the soundscape of the wilderness that comes together during The Revenant's many dialogue free stretches. But Mad Max could easily get checked off for both editing and mixing.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Inside Out
Don't overthink this one you guys. Nothing else stands a chance. Sorry, Anomalisa.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Amy
Could Win: Cartel Land
Amy has the perfect storm of critical and popular success. Its an excellent documentary and its also the most widely seen of the bunch. Netlfix has poured tons of money into its campaign for What Happened Miss Simone?, and if it wasn't competing against a more popular music doc, it might win. But the real spoiler is the powerful and timely Cartel Land, which has struck a chord with many Academy voters.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
If voters actually watched all the nominees, then this would be a real horse race between the two frontrunners. But many members vote without seeing them all (or any of them, sadly). So the film about the holocaust and with more name recognition will take it.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Could Win: Bear Story
Both frontrunners contain the heartwarming "aww" factor necessary to win this category. Sanjay's Super Team benefits from a wide release and an army of Pixar/Disney voters in the Academy who are bound to support it. Bear Story has made its way to Netflix and is reminiscent of the quirky art direction of past winner Mr. Hublot. I give Pixar the edge in a close race.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Could Win: Body Team 12 or Girl in the River
Remember how I mentioned that not every voters sees all the films? They may not have seen all the shorts but the older members of the Academy will know Claude Lanzmann and his film Shoah. So he may get votes via name recognition as a way to honor him. Body Team 12 and Girl in the River received more favorable reviews, and will get votes from those who have watched the films.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Ave Maria
Could Win: Shok
Ave Maria is the lightest film of the bunch. While critics and audiences are divided over the success of its comedy, the tone will set it apart from its heavier competition. If the Academy is willing to embrace weightier subject matter, they might lean towards Shok. The film is set in the Kosovo war and has been cited for its stellar screenplay and central performance.
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