We are just days away from the Academy Awards. Ballots are in and being counted. Potential winners are holding their breath until Sunday.
This is a final breakdown of my thoughts on the season. Every category is included, even those pesky shorts which throw off everyone's Oscar pools. I have pretended to be smart and insightful to those races, but as is the case every year: no one knows what the hell is going to happen with them.
On a personal note, last night I completed my work in a new play (performing to a sold out house!) called "Submission" with Rapidfire Bootleg Theatre. This was the reason I didn't have quite as many postings in February as I would have liked. Though the Contenders section stayed mostly updated, and you can click over there for final rankings and more in depth thoughts on each category. (And in a personal plug: if you wan to know more about "Submission" and the work your favorite blogger has been doing, head to: http://www.rapidfirebootleg.com/)
Without further ado: Who will, could, and should win this years Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "Boyhood"
Should Win: "Boyhood"
The most confounding Oscar duel in recent memory. Both "Birdman" and "Boyhood" have strong claims to the throne. There is a lot of sentiment in "Boyhood" and industry respect for its achievements...but will they award its director for that instead? The PGA is what is pushing "Birdman" out front for me. It won using the same preferential ballot the Oscars now use to determine Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
Should Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
I'm definitely predicting a split for Picture/Director. With my luck it will probably go opposite the way I predicted it, which is the tricky part of predicting a split. If you are voting in an office pool or a friends Oscar party, you should put down the same film for Picture and Director in case you guess the opposite split. But I'm being silly and stubborn. I just can't see filmmakers looking at Richard Linklater's 12 years of dedication and not awarding him for it.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, "Theory of Everything"
Could Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman" (Bradley Cooper?)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
The only acting race with any suspense. Redmayne has picked up the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. That almost always spells Oscar. Keaton has Critics Choice and Globe (comedy) wins, and the film serves as a capstone to his career. He could eek out a win on sentiment. Bradley Cooper is a late entry wild card who threatens to upend the whole thing.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Could Win: One of the others could win best dressed?
Should Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Ms. Moore finally gets her Oscar moment. Four other actresses get to rest easy and enjoy the evening knowing they aren't coming anywhere near the podium.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
Could Win: Edward Norton...if J.K. Simmons wasn't nominated
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
This is as locked up as Best Actress is. Nothing to see here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Could Win: she's got this
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Arquette has won every supporting actress trophy under the sun. No reason to think she won't be on stage this Sunday.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "Nightcrawler"
Seems like an easy place to reward "Grand Budapest" in a major category. But if "Birdman" is indeed loved enough to win Best Picture, they may check it off here as well.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game" or "Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Whiplash"
Anything could win this one (except "Inherent Vice"). They may even choose this as a place to reward "American Sniper". Put the four films on the wall and throw a dart, and you'll know just as much about this category as anybody.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Whiplash"
Should Win: "Whiplash"
"Boyhood" seems like the clear winner here, but "Whiplash" gave everyone pause when it took the BAFTA. Both have passionate fanbases and very different styles of editing. In the end Sandra Adair's monumental 12 year task puts "Boyhood" in the lead.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Should Win: "Birdman"
"Birdman" has one guaranteed win of the night here. Lubezki will win his second consecutive Oscar for his dizzying long shots.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game"
Should Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Production design is a key element of any Wes Anderson film and the iconic pink and purple motif should score an easy win. "The Imitation Game" has potential for an upset with similar period decorations as "Lincoln" did, but I don't think team "Budapest" needs to worry.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"
Should Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"
The race is always close in a three-nominee category. But I see no reason why the voters won't stop "Grand Budapest's" domination of the crafts categories stop here. The intricate body makeup of "Guardians of the Galaxy" does provide an opportunity to reward a popular film, so a surprise here is certainly possible.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Into the Woods"
Should Win: "Into the Woods"
"Into the Woods" has under-performed in this category all season long, in what should have been a locked in win for beloved designer Colleen Atwood. So, the stylized garb from "Grand Budapest" steals the gold.
BEST SCORE
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Birdman" (stupidly deemed ineligible)
I'm less confident about "Grand Budapest" here. Johann Johannsson's sweeping score to "Theory of Everything" has won over a great many viewers. But, it seems time for veteran composer Alexandre Desplat to finally win an Oscar, and he's contributed a score to the presumed tech/craft juggernaut of the awards season.
BEST SONG
Will Win: 'Glory' from "Selma"
Could Win: 'I'm Not Gonna Miss You' from "Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me"
Should Win: 'Everything is Awesome' from "The LEGO Movie"
Common and John Legend have been pushing "Glory" hard. And in a year without a mega hit like "Let it Go" or "Skyfall", it allows the Academy to say "see, we gave 'Selma' something!". Though the opportunity to award the Alzheimer afflicted Glenn Campbell a final trophy could give him the sentiment vote.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Should Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"
"Interstellar" would appear to have more support given its multiple nominations tally. But it has proven to be a divisive film. And the team on "Apes" has taken home multiple guild awards and pushed the boundaries of visual effects.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: "American Sniper"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies"
Most voters have no idea what good sound design entails, so usually the loudest film wins. War films do very well, and they will want to give the highest grossing best picture nominee something. It should be an easy get for "American Sniper".
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "American Sniper" or "Birdman"
Should Win: "Whiplash"
Those who don't know the difference between editing and mixing might be tempted to check off "American Sniper" for both categories. But they have the opportunity to vote for "Whiplash" in this one, and there is more passionate support for that movie in the Academy. And the drums are, you know, loud.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will Win: "Ida"
Could Win: "Wild Tales"
Should Win: "Ida"
"Ida" has a cinematography nomination, and many voters probably saw this on Netflix before they even received screeners. It has a powerful story and wide enough reach to take home the trophy. But, if voters aren't in the mood for a depressing film about the Holocaust, the stylish and fun "Wild Tales" will pick up their vote.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2"
Could Win: "Big Hero 6"
Should Win: "The LEGO Movie" (not nominated for reasons beyond comprehension)
Animation professionals might vote for the hand drawn "The Tale of Princess Kaguya", but "How to Train Your Dragon 2" looks gorgeous and works on basically every level. Unless voters simply check off the Disney title, "Dragon" should repeat its Globe win this Sunday.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: "CitizenFour"
Could Win: "Virunga"
Should Win: "Finding Vivian Maier"
"Citizenfour" has been picking up basically every documentary prize. I don't think the heart wrenching tale of the mountain gorillas in "Virguna" can surpass it, as hard as Netflix has been campaigning.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Will Win: "The Phone Call"
Could Win: "Boogaloo and Graham" or "Parvaneh"
Should Win: "The Phone Call"
"The Phone Call" features Academy award nominee Sally Hawkins as a crisis hotline operator who tries to talk a widower (Jim Broadbent) out of committing suicide. She gives a powerful performance that anchors the film. Its competitor is the upbeat and ridiculous "Boogaloo and Graham" about two young brothers whose chickens face euthanasia amidst a war in Ireland...hard to describe, just watch it. The adorable film will stand out for its upbeat tempo, but will it be enough to overcome the emotional gut punch of "The Phone Call"?
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: "Johanna"
Could Win: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
Should Win: "Our Curse"
A tough race to call between a worthy crop of nominees. "Johanna" follows a dying Polish women trying to pass on wisdom to her 5 year old son in her last months before she dies. "Crisis Hotline" follows a crisis phone room where responders attempt to talk down suicidal veterans. I expect the vote will be very close. "Crisis Hotline" feels more important, and successful suicide interventions stir powerful emotions. But the story of Joanna is so deeply personal, and her strength in facing death leaves too deep an impact to ignore.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: "Feast"
Could Win: "The Dam Keeper"
Should Win: "The Dam Keeper"
"Feast" has the Disney touch and played before "Big Hero 6", so it will be the most widely seen nominee. "The Dam Keeper" features gorgeous animation and a poignant (though dark) story of a bullied pig who runs a windmill that protects his anthropomorphic town from pollution. Its probably the better film than the cutesy Disney fare, but with the entire Academy now voting on the short categories, Disney has the edge.
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