"Boyhood" was the clear leader of awards season, taking nearly every critics prize and the Golden Globe. Then the guilds swerved in a different direction as "Birdman" laid claim to the important SAG, PGA, and DGA. We assumed Inarritu's film was the one to beat, but the Brits slapped it down, awarding "Boyhood" with three trophies including picture and director.
What does it all mean!?
Let's start with the Directors Guild. Many assumed this would still be Linklater's to lose despite the film stumbling with guild awards. According to many reports, there were audible gasps when Alejandro G Inarritu's name was called. So the voting must have been close. The winner of this guild award has gone on to claim the corresponding Oscar trophy 90% of the time since 2004. A more impressive stat for "Birdman": the only film to claim all three top guild awards and lose Best Picture at the Oscar's was "Apollo 13" in 1995. It was unseated by "Braveheart".
Will this be a repeat of 1995? If we follow the statistics with the BAFTA awards it may be. These kudos hardly ever worked as an Oscar predictor until they changed their voting procedures six years ago. And in that time their choice for Best Picture has gone on to claim the Oscar every year. "Boyhood" won three out of five nominations at the British ceremony while, "Birdman" took just one out of a whopping ten.
It is worth noting that "Braveheart" took the Writers Guild award in 1995, so it did have one major precursor going into the Academy Awards. The WGA has not announced winners yet, but its status as an Oscar barometer is always shaky. Thanks to a slew of eligibility rules in the guild, eventual Academy nominees and winners are frequently shunned from their ceremony. This year "Birdman" failed to meet requirements, and the group placed "Whiplash" in original screenplay. That film will compete in the adapted race on Oscar night. If Richard Linklater could claim the WGA prize for "Boyhood", it would directly mirror 1995, and carve a clear path to victory. Though I think Wes Anderson will have something to say about that.
Speaking of "The Grand Budapest Hotel", the film forms an interesting trio with the two frontrunners. Wes Anderson, Inarritu, and Linklater are all nominated for Picture, Director, and Writer of their respective movies. If all three films are loved, it stands to reason the Academy could spread the wealth and reward them all. Quirky films tend to do well in Original Screenplay ("Her", "Eternal Sunshine") and Anderson is the reigning king of quirk. I can certainly see a scenario where Anderson takes Screenplay, and Linklater and Inarritu split Picture and Director. ...The problem is I cant grasp who takes which.
Personally, I think "Boyhood" should be the one to take it. It's an introspective film that finds magic in the everyday. It finds meaning in the seemingly mundane and asks the audience to contemplate its own lives. "Boyhood" will likely be remembered as a classic for a long time, versus the audacious "Birdman". Not that I wish to belittle "Birdman" in the least, but it feels like something that is hot right now, versus something that will stay hot through the ages. Come to think of it, the way Oscar voters usually vote, that means it probably will take Best Picture.
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