PGA Nominations Shake Up Oscar Race

Hello all!

I have been slacking a bit and not posting thoughts about the Oscar race thus far (though as usual, I have kept the contenders pages pretty up to date with my predictions/thoughts). Perhaps slacking isn't the best word: in addition to my day job, I have been lucky enough to do a good deal of traveling and performing. But now I'm back, and today is the make or break day for many Oscar hopeful films.

Below are the just announced 2016 PGA Nominees:

Motion Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Animated Motion Picture
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Minions
The Peanuts Movie

The PGA is the most important of the guild awards in terms of Oscar prognosticators, because it uses the same preferential ballot as the Academy to decide its Best Picture nominees. Last year, the PGA nominees foresaw 7 our of 8 Oscar nominees (The PGA guarantees 10 slots, while the Academy has anywhere from 5-10). So scoring with the producers is a very good omen.

Last year, the three darkest PGA contenders (Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher) were the ones to miss at the Oscars. With that in mind, the picture most likely left out of the Academy lineup would be the android thriller Ex Machina (though I will jump for joy if it makes the cut). It also means The Hateful Eight is likely dead in the water in terms of Best Picture odds. Room was also left out of the PGA field, but the intimate nature of the film is more in line with Academy tastes, so don't lose hope on it yet.

The most notable snubs are Carol and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. After dominating many a critic award, Carol also failed to net a Art Directors Guild nomination this morning (the equivalent of Best Production Design at the Oscars). Not great tea leaves for the lesbian period drama. Is it perhaps just an "actor's movie" rather than an all around player? It's also bad news for Star Wars' Best Picture hopes. The movie is essentially tailor made for this guild, and the miss here certainly stings. Though the film is dominating the zeitgeist and easily surpassing Avatar's box office record with no signs of showing. The Force Awakens hasn't played by awards season rules so far, and it could still be "too big to ignore" for the Academy.

The Big Short is looking great. It has been scoring across the board and has me thinking it is the real challenger to Spotlight's frontrunner status. The producers have also revived Straight Outta Compton (showing up on a preferential ballot pairs nicely with its SAG ensemble nomination) and Brooklyn (many pundits fretted about the Globes shunning it from their drama category). And is Sicario is emerging as a real threat in the race, despite being a long shot in most major categories? Watch out.

So how does the Oscar race look now? Based on the guilds it's The Big Short vs. Spotlight for Best Picture. With Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian as potential spoilers. Academy Award nominations are announced on January 14th and voting is underway. Expect campaigns to be in high gear this week. "What a lovely day".