Yesterday, January 8th, was the deadline for Oscar nomination voting. All ballots have been turned in. And more importantly, most of the guilds and the BAFTAs have voiced their opinions.
Eight Guilds have released nominations thus far. They are the Producers Guild (PGA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writer's Guild (WGA), American Cinema Editors (ACE), Art Directors (ADG), American Society of cinematographers (ACE), Costume Designers (CDG), and Makeup and Hairstyling (MHG). The Directors Guild will announce on Tuesday, with Sound Editors and the Visual Effects Society on Wednesday.
Surprisingly, "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is the only film to get noticed in all eight. It should be noted that the Writers Guild has different eligibility rules than the Academy, and as a result "Birdman", "The Theory of Everything","Selma", and "Mr. Turner" were not eligible for consideration. "Birdman", "The Imitation Game", and "Gone Girl" were all recognized at seven guilds and "Nightcrawler" at six. "Boyhood", "Foxcatcher", "Guardians of the Galaxy", "Into the Woods", and "The Theory of Everything" are feted by five.
Who is in trouble after all is said an done? By all accounts: "Selma". Screeners were not sent out to most guild members, but the complete shut out at the BAFTA is not a good sign. The only momentum the film has is the Golden Globes. A group that has zero overlap with Oscar voters, and a ceremony where its entirely likely they will only walk away with Best Song. The Academy is always socially conscious, so I don't think all hope is lost (it helps that they actually received screeners). In any case, this isn't going to be the slam dunk we thought it was.
Also fighting an uphill battle are "Into the Woods" and "Unbroken". Missing the PGA nominations was a big blow. The two films were tailor made for that group and were ignored in favor of darker and smaller fare like "Foxcatcher", "Nightcrawler", and "Whiplash". Further complicating things is a shut out at the BAFTA. The Sondheim musical showed up in Makeup/Hair and Costume Design, but no major categories...not even for Meryl. Unbroken fared even worse with zero nominations, though Jack O'Connell did get a Rising Star nomination. Disney and Universal are hardly laying down to die, and below the line nominations seem certain. But Best Picture chances just worsened.
Kris Tapley at InContention made an interesting point about "Gone Girl" and how it is this season's "Girl With the Dragon Tattoo". He may be on to something. For those who don't remember (or don't watch as ludicrously close as I do), "Dragon Tattoo" did very well in the precursor awards. It wasn't typical awards fare. A blockbuster type movie that did well with critics and audiences, yet was still stylish and unique. It made the AFI top ten, then found nominations with the ACE, ADG, ASC, WGA, DGA, and finally the PGA. It seemed like it couldnt be ignored, and the Academy would finally embrace a "cool" movie.
Nope. Despite major nominations (Actress, Editing, Cinematography), it failed to get a Best Picture nomination. David Fincher may suffer the same fate this year. Look at its Globe nominations: Actress, Director, Screenplay, and Score...but loses out on a Best Picture nomination to "Foxcatcher". I think the film is one of the best offerings of the year, but it may likely be another Fincher film that is recognized for its parts but not the whole.
So with the Academy votes in, and nominees revealed on January 15th, where do we stand? "Boyhood", "Birdman", "The Imitation Game", "The Theory of Everything", and "Grand Budapest Hotel" lead the pack with the most broad support. Then the wildcard "Selma". The remaining slots go to some arrangement of "Whiplash", "Nightcrawler", "American Sniper", and "Foxcatcher"...and "Gone Girl" if the Academy is feeling hip.
Other calls I'm making:
*"American Sniper" plays well. Could Clint Eastwood break into Best Director? Maybe. The film has done great in the industry awards. I think it becomes a nominee for Best Picture and finds its way into the screenplay race.
*"Mr. Turner" doesn't go far. If the Brits couldn't get behind that movie (not even in Best British film!) I cant see the Academy showing support either. Production Design and Cinematography are possibilities, but it gets dicey beyond that. "Interstellar" likely joins is as a strictly below-the-line movie.
*We underestimated "Nightcrawler" all along. At this point I cant see how it DOESN'T make the top category. Jake Gyllenhaal has a distinct possibility of pushing out Steve Carrell or David Oyelowo for Best Actor. I also think we should watch out for Rene Russo to repeat her BAFTA nomination with the Oscars. I mean, how many Academy members do you think watched "A Most Violent Year"? (Sorry Jessica, I love you too).
Who do you think gets nominated for Best Picture? Will the Academy be stuffy as usual, or does "Gone Girl" get a shot? And in a perfect world, wouldn't "Guardians of the Galaxy" be there too? (a nerd can dream, ya know).
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