The Academy Awards will reveal their nominees tomorrow morning. I'll be like a little kid at Christmas who's too excited to sleep. And despite the consensus around most of the acting winners, many nomination slots are still completely up in the air.
I'm having having the most difficulty nailing down Best Director. The Director's Guild released their nominees yesterday. Richard Linklater ("Boyhood") and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu ("Birdman") got their expected nominations. Joining them was Morten Tyldum ("The Imitation Game"), Wes Anderson ("The Grand Budapest Hotel"), and Clint Eastwood (American Sniper"). It's important to keep in mind that, while an important industry precursor with Academy crossover, the DGA has hundreds more members that the Academy's Directors Branch. So the DGA tends to pick contenders that play well to a wide audience, versus the Academy's tendency to select more singular work. This is how someone like Ben Zeitlin ("Beasts of the Southern Wild") makes it into the Oscars best director lineup.
Linklater and Innaritu are guaranteed their slots. It will be one of the biggest showdowns of the night. But who joins them? Well, its sort of like throwing a dart. After the insane comeback the "Grand Budapest" is having, I think Wes Anderson is going to get his first citation as a director. He seems perfectly positioned to follow up the Golden Globe and DGA nominations. Many are skeptical about Morten Tyldum, which I suppose is natural. He isn't a familiar face in Hollywood and his spot could go to someone with more narrative or clout. But "The Imitation Game" has been a huge player this awards season. Plus he has the power of Harvey Weinstein behind him. My gut tells me not to underestimate Harvey.
The last slot is really up for the taking. Clint Eastwood could repeat his DGA bid, though the Oscars usually differ their lineup by one or two nominees. I think its more likely that his nomination here, plus the PGA citing firmly puts "American Sniper" in the Best Picture race. Instead the Oscars may opt for Damien Chazelle or Ava DuVernay. Chazelle is also the writer of "Whiplash" which helps elevate his reputation as an auteur. The movie certainly has a passionate following in Hollywood. But will the Academy really not jump at the chance to nominate their first ever black female director? True "Selma" has botched their campaign a bit, having not sent screeners to most of the guilds. But, the Academy did get DVDs in the mail, and the film seems too socially important to shun altogether. I think DuVernay and her star Oyelowo sneak into the races, even if the film isn't quite the juggernaut we perceived it to be early on.
What would really be impressive is for Dan Gilroy to show up for helming "Nightcrawler", perhaps the biggest breakout success of awards season. Or if David Fincher managed a nomination for "Gone Girl" despite not campaigning.
Check out the Contenders pages to see my final predictions for Best Director and other categories. Let me know how right or wrong you think I am. One thing is for certain: with so much competition, there will be plenty of shocking omissions and upset people tomorrow morning. And they said it was a "weak year"...
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