Golden Globe Predictions

The Hollywood Foreign Press will reveal their choices for the 2015 Golden Globes tonight. I love watching the ceremony, because everyone seems much more relaxed (and liquored up) than the Oscars. Amy and Tina will likely provide a lot of fun too. As far as predicting these things, that's a whole other story.

The Globes seem to have more unpredictable surprises than any other awards ceremony. Jacqueline Bisset anyone? But to hell with it. Here's my thoughts on how the film races will shake out (You're on your own for the TV side. I have no clue there). Tell me if I'm right (fingers crossed) or wrong (probably) in the comments. If you get the best score at your Golden Globe party tonight, I happily accept written thank you letters, money, and wine.

Best Picture - Drama
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Selma
"Boyhood" is the odds on favorite to sweep most awards bodies this year, and the Globes are likely to step in line. They do like to try and predict the Oscars after all. But, "Selma" is quite topical and is right up their alley.

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Into the Woods
In any other year, "Into the Woods" or "Grand Budapest Hotel" would be a Globes juggernaut. But since "Birdman", one of the years most audacious and provocative films, is deemed a comedy...its hard to picture them winning. The HFPA loves musicals, and several have upset this category before ("Dreamgirls" and Sondheim's own "Sweeney Todd"), so it is probably a closer race than you think.

Best Actor - Drama
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could Win: David Oyelowo, Selma
With Michael Keaton in the comedy race, Redmayne's physical transformation into Stephen Hawking should easily carry him across the finish line. If "Selma" does indeed catch on with the group, then Oyelowo may turn up for disappearing into MLK.

Best Actress - Drama
Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Julianne Moore is all but guaranteed the Oscar. She will start her victory march tonight. I suppose this being the Globes, they might not cooperate and throw Hollywood darling Jennifer Aniston a bone. But not likely.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Could Win: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Keaton basically has this in the bag. "The Grand Budapest Hotel" did remarkably well with nominations, so Fiennes will have support, but I doubt this is where the film wins.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Could Win: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
The Globes, ideally, like every studio to go home happy. This seems the best place to give Disney and "Into the Woods" some love. Plus the Globes were a big part of jump starting Blunt's career, and she has always fared well with this group. Amy Adams is loved by the HFPA as well, but she just won last year for "American Hustle", so they might not feel the need to reward her so soon after.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Simmons has been leading the supporting race since the beginning of the season. There's no reason to think he will lose unless they decide to give "Birdman" a sweep.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could Win: Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Arquette has been sailing through the precursors for "Boyhood" so this is hers to lose. Though as always with the Globes, watch out for Meryl. It is her 29th nomination after all. I also think Jessica Chastain is a dark horse here. "A Most Violent Year" hasn't picked up much steam, but Chastain has been making the rounds and charming the pants off everyone.

Best Director
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Birdman
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood OR Ava DuVernay, Selma
Most pundits seem to be going towards Linklater. But "Birdman" to me, is a much more clear example of a directorial achievement. And if both frontrunners cancel each other out, Ava DuVernay could steal it for "Selma". She would be the first African American female director to win a Globe, and that's a prospect they might not want to pass up.

Best Screenplay
Will Win: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Remember how I said the HFPA likes to give everyone something? "The Grand Budapest Hotel" was clearly popular with voters, and the stellar script is the most likely place to reward it. Its similar to the way they awarded Spike Jonze's quirky screenplay for "Her" last year. "Boyhood" and "Birdman" will remain extremely competitive in one of the toughest races of the night, but I'm making a gutsy call with this one.

Best Animated Film
Will Win: The LEGO Movie
Could Win: Big Hero 6
"The LEGO Movie" seems too smart and likable to lose. But "Big Hero 6", with its SanFransokyo setting and visual flair, might have more appeal with the foreign voters.

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: Ida (Poland)
Could Win: Leviathan (Russia)
The black and white holocaust tale "Ida" has award winner written all over it. It really stands above the rest of the pack. "Leviathan" has a passionate fan-base though.

Best Score
Will Win: Gone Girl
Could Win: Anyone Else
This category is truly up in the air. "Gone Girl" is well liked considering it showed up in director, actress, and screenplay. So is this where they want to award it? On the other hand, Antonio Sanchez's drum score for "Birdman" was rudely deem ineligible at the Oscars. What a great big "screw you" it would be to name him the winner. Or will they reward Andre Desplat for "the Imitation Game" (also likely the only place that film will find love)? Any of the nominees could take it, but Im making a "no guts, no glory" call for Reznor and Ross' scoring of "Gone Girl".

Best Song
Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Could Win: "Big Eyes" from Big Eyes
The soulful John Legend and Common duet appears to be the safest place for "Selma" to get noticed. The group is not adverse to awarding hit pop stars however. Lana Del Rey's title song for "Big Eyes" (which also garnered two acting nominations) fits in with those sensibilities.