Surveying the Field Part 3: Play Performances

Part Three of my overview of eligible candidates for this years Tonys. Lets look at the actor's in this season's straight plays.

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones,  The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Son
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn
spoilers
6.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
7.) Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses
8.) Marissa Tomei, The Realistic Joneses
9.) Debra Messing, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Rachel Weisz, Betrayal
11.) Mary-Louise Parker, Snow Geese

Now a key spot in these predictions obviously hinges on Lady Day being considered a revival of a play rather than a musical.  My hunch is that they aim for a "play with music" billing similar to "Over the Rainbow" and get the committee to place them here. This will then lead to an epic showdown between Audra McDonald and Cherry Jones. Im truthfully not sure anyone has the power to surpass those two. Tyne Daly is a strong third place, but the part is less showy than her rivals. It was wonderful to watch but it could be a hard role to win with. Will voters like The Realistic Joneses enough to nominate either, or both, of its leading ladies? And will they still remember the far-too-limited run of Machinal to give Rebecca Hall a very deserved nomination? We will have to wait for reviews and general consensus to arise from Raisin in the Sun and Velocity of Autumn to make a better guess.

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Ian McKellen, Waiting for Godot
spoilers
6.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
7.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
8.) Patrick Page, Casa Valentina
9.) Patrick Stewart, Waiting for Godot
10.) James Franco, Of Mice and Men
long shots
11.) Tracy Letts, The Realistic Joneses
12.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
13.) Michael C. Hall, The Realisitc Joneses
14.) Stephen Spinella, The Velocity of Autumn
15.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
16.) Santino Fontana, Act One
17.) Brian F. O'Byrne, Outside Mullingar

This is undoubtedly the hardest performance category to call. It should also be noted that eligibility for Casa Valentina and Act One has not been determined. No one is billed above the title or even given separate billing lines in either production and they could theoretically have the entire cast under featured. Bryan Cranston is the only one I can safely call with any confidence, coming of rave reviews and a great year in TV. Radcliffe has been spurned before, but I have hopes that third time will be a charm (since he really was robbed last time). Washington and McKellen seem the most vulnerable and could easily be taken out by any number of candidates (which is a strange thing to write for such actors, but there are an abundance of male driven plays this year). I expect many will wholeheartedly disagree with these rankings. I think even I disagree with them. Ill probably change them 100 times until nominations are announced.

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Andrea Martin, Act One
5.) Ingrid Craigie, The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
6.) Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar
7.) Victoria Clark, The Snow Geese
8.) Leighton Meester, Of Mice and Men
9.) Anika Noni-Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
long shots
10.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
11.) Jayne Houdyshell, Romeo and Juliet
12.) Lisa Emery, Casa Valentina
13.) Tonya Pinkins, A Time to Kill

I have to say this is the thinnest acting race of the season, and Ms Keenan-Bolger may easily walk away with her first Tony award. Sarah Greene just received and Olivier nomination for Inishmaan and with little competition, both she and her frequent scene partner Ingrid Craigie could both land noms. They will likely give Andrea Martin a nomination just for being the gem that is Andrea Martin (and bringing in the few much needed comedic beats of Act One). Simply because I cant see many of the roles igniting much passion among voters, be on the look out for veterans in not so well received plays to catch fire.  If nominators don't have a lot of options they might figure, why not throw bone to Victoria Clark or Jayne Houdyshell?


Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Michael McKean, All the Way
3.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Frederick Weller, Mothers and Sons
5.) John Cullum, Casa Valentina
spoilers
6.) Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men
7.) Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons
8.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
9.) Peter Maloney, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Padraic Delaney, The Cripple of Inishmaan
11.) Shuler Hensley, Waiting for Godot
12.) Samuel Barnett, Richard III
13.) Michael Cumptsy, Machinal
14.) Billy Crudup, Waiting for Godot
15.) Pat Shortt, Cripple of Inishmaan
16. David Cromer, A Raisin in the Sun

As mentioned in the lead actor race above: Casa Valentina and Act One will remain question marks until later in April. Its possible we could see Santino Fontana, Tony Shalhoub, and Patrick Page moved to this category. Which would make a much more heated race. As it stands now, the real race seems to be Rylance vs McKean. Im giving the edge to Rylance as Viola because he's simply brilliant.  Frederick Weller is essentially a co-lead in Mothers and Sons so he has the benefit of a very large role in the featured category. And despite his small part, Brian J Smith had everyone singing his praises and could very well end up as the first actor to ever get a nomination for the Gentleman Caller. At this early stage (assuming eligibility remains as Ive outlined it) the fifth slot is basically up for grabs.