Another Look at the Big Four

Now that more shows have opened (every show eligible is at least in previews) I wanted to take a look at how the big four races have shifted.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
3.) After Midnight
4.) If/Then
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5.) Beautiful
6.) The Bridges of Madison County
7.) Aladdin
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8.) Rocky
9.) Big Fish

Based on its creative team and subject matter (and spring opening), Bullets Over Broadway was the assumed frontrunner even before people saw it.  But reviews have come out and it has sharply divided critics. Perhaps more so than any show this season. Ben Brantley among many others, raked it over the coals while it received sterling reviews from the likes of the Associated Press, EW, and TimeOut.  The other kids on the block who all previously wondered if they were endangered have smelled blood in the water and have gone full throttle with campaigning. Id say Gentleman's Guide is now the one to beat (and are proudly touting their best reviewed musical of the season status). Slots 3 and 4 could really go toward any of the top 7.  After Midnight has seen a drop in attendance and voters may want to assist this well liked show, even if it is a revue. My gut says enough voters will want to reward If/Then for its originality despite a lukewarm response. But Beautiful and Bridges are nipping at its heels and could easily get the last slot instead.

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) Mothers and Sons
3.) All the Way
4.) The Realistic Joneses
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5.) Act One
6.) Outside Mullingar
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7.) The Velocity of Autumn

A fairly weak year for new plays makes the category hard to call. But it seems like Harvey's to loose at this point. Casa Valentina is his first new play in a long while and he provides ample opportunities for the outstanding ensemble cast to shine. The Tonys love men in dressed as women! Fierstein hasnt won best play since Torch Song Trilogy and he knows just how to play the Tony game. Mothers and Sons has divided critics though it has positive feedback from audiences. All the Way is a mixed bag, but in this weak year, expect the power of Bryan Cranston (and its big box office) to elevate it to the top category. The fourth slot is the wild card. Act One disappoints and bores and will only show up if voters feel obligated to vote for Moss Harts memory and/or James Lapine. Outside Mullingar was well received but came and went quickly.  Which leaves Will Eno's post-absurdist comedy which will likely have as many fans as it will haters in the nominating body.

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Violet
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4.) Cabaret

Les Mis opened with an impressive advance in sales, and impressive reviews. It seems no one will ever tire of this sweeping epic even only a short while after a film adaptation. It will receive many nominations, but will the voters really want to give it another trophy when there are new things to reward? Violet is performing well in its streamlines, one-act approach. I expect it to divide critics but there's certainly enough to love to warrant a nomination, but I dont think it'll be enough to win. And then there is Hedwig. The show that is becoming the event of the season. No other show is getting audiences roaring, clapping, cheering, singing along as much as this one. Its thrilling to watch and expertly put together. The big question is: Cabaret, will they or wont they? They arent required to nominate more than 3 productions if less than six shows qualify. And this is an identical mounting. If it is nominated, itll have to settle for fourth place.

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Twelfth Night
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
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5.) Of Mice and Men
6.) Waiting for Godot
7.) No Man's Land
8.) Machinal
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9.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
10.) Richard III
11.) The Winslow Boy

Speaking of that new "number of nominees rules", if any category is expanded to 5, it'll be this one. There's so much quality here, I wish I could easily tell you who would be the final nominees with any form of certainty, but there's too much to choose from. I feel relatively confident at my top three here. Glass Menagerie is poised to be this years "Virginia Woolf" and should perform well despite its early bow. A Raisin in the Sun has proved those skeptical about  the ages of its stars wrong.  Kenny Leon has a great track record with the Tonys and will continue it with this production. And while Shakespeare has had a hard time at the Tonys, Twelfth Night got such unanimous praise, even by those who normally cant sit still for good ole Bill, I cant imagine it not showing up here. The revival which got a ton of  press due to its stars may get shut out. I'm talking about the rep productions of Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  The reviews weren't as good as the Shakespeare double bill, and unlike Rylance and Co., both plays were performed 4 times a week (Twelfth Night got 6, Richard III 2). So do the voters unite around Beckett or Pinter? I'm guessing the split here will allow either Cripple of Inishmaan or Of Mice and Men to slip past them, claiming the last spot. I favor the former.  Americans' cultural inferiority complex to the Brits may win out over the star-bating Hollywood casting of Mr Steinbeck's work. Machinal's limited run may knock it out of this extremely competitive field. And I think Lady Day will be seen as a triumph for Audra rather than for its script or overall production.


Thoughts? Comments? Disagreements? Corrections? Let me know!