Surveying the Field Part 2: Musical Performances

I last covered the big four awards, and now its time to look at where things stand for the actors.

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrik Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
5.) Andy Karl, Rocky
spoilers
6.) Zach Braff, Bullets Over Broadway
7.) Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
8.) Steven Pasquale, Bridges of Madison County
long shots
9.) Will Swenson, Les Miserables
10.) Adam Jacobs, Aladdin
11.) Zachary Levi, First Date

The first 3 seem like locks to me.  Although NPH is obviously sight unseen, I highly doubt they wont throw the former Tony host a bone for this trans-formative performance (which requires him to essentially carry the whole thing). And while double nominations can be difficult to pull off, the two leads in Gentleman's Guide are simply too good not to show up here. The fifth slot seems most up for grabs. Andy Karl is getting great reviews...its too bad he's stuck in a show that isnt. Zach Braff, who is generating great word of mouth with his Bway debut could swoop in and nab one Bullets likely numerous tony nominations. And though the show closed early: never underestimate the power of the Butz. If there is a surprise nomination anywhere, he is the most likely to land a successful sneak attack.

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Sutton Foster, Violet
5.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
spoilers
6.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
7.) Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
Possible?
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill

Best Actress in a Musical, otherwise known as Bloodbath Battle Royale: Broadway Edition. In any other year, any one of these 7 ladies would be the clear frontrunner to win. So who gets left out? Will the perceived money-grabbing tactics from the Cabaret revival be enough to oust Michelle Williams in her Broadway debut? Idina Menzel has never been more popular (her cover issue of Billboard Magazine is the first issue to sell out in 2014) and its hard to imagine a world where she doesn't ride this wave to another nomination and likely win. Of course with so many past winners in contention, will the voters finally reward perennial bridesmaid O'Hara? Then there's Audra. There is much debate over whether Lady Day will be eligible under play or musical. My gut says it will be categorized as a play for the Tonys...but if its not, things just got even more complicated.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) James Snyder, If/Then
spoilers
6.) Cliff Saunders, Les Miserables
7.) Brooks Ashmankas, Bullets Over Broadway
8.) Vincent Pastore, Bullets Over Broadway
long shots
9.) Dule Hill, After Midnight
10.) Colin Donnell, Violet
11.) Anthony Rapp, If/Then
12.) Terrence Archie, Rocky
13.) Jonathan Freeman, Aladdin

Featured categories are notoriously hard to predict at the Tonys. But, as of right now this is Iglehart's to lose. The acting in Aladdin has taken some hits in reviews, but they've had nothing but love letters for the resident Genie. He walks away with this show, and "Friend Like Me" will be a number people will be talking about til this time next year. The somehow still Tony-less Burstein should prove a strong challenger though (he and Kelli O'Hara should do an act together). Its difficult to predict which of the featured Bullets men has the muscle to unite enough voters for a nomination, but Cordero seems to have the most praise out of the 3. The question is if they can achieve a double nomination here.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
2.) Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
4.) Caissie Levy, Les Miserables
5.) La Chanze, If/Then
spoilers
6.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
7.) Keala Settle, Les Miserables
8.) Andiranne Lenox, After Midnight
9.) Betsy Wolfe, Bullets Over Broadway
long shots
10.) Kate Baldwin, Big Fish
11.) Margo Seibert, Rocky
12.) Cass Morgan, Bridges of Madison County
13.) Jane Carr, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
14.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
15.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
16.) Fantasia Barrino, After Midnight
17.) Amber Iman, Soul Doctor

There's a ton of talent to choose from in this category, and things could shake out many different ways between now and the end of April. This could be another battle between Cabaret and Bullets like the male featured race. All three Gentleman's Guide ladies are terrific, but O'Hare has the most to work with, and gets the most comedic elements (which this category frequently rewards). There are several shows that will attempt to make a double nomination happen here (After Midnight is even bringing Fantasia back during the Tony voting period). However, with all this competition I'm not sure anyone can manage more than one nominee here. LaChanze sits it the vulnerable spot because voters could view If/Then as "the Idina show" making it harder for the featured players to find enough love.