Surveying the Field

Most of the shows that will debut this season are at least in previews, with the few late bloomers beginning performances this coming week. So here's a look at some current standings for the Big Four:

Best Musical

1.) Bullets Over Broadway

2.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

3.) If/Then

4.) Beautiful

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5.) Rocky

6.) Bridges of Madison County

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7.) Aladdin

8.) After Midnight

It seems like a 3 horse race for best musical between 3 very different productions. 

*Bullets has the power of Stroman plus the feel good vibe of a glitzy golden-age-of-Broadway story. Plus a very talented ensemble that all get a chance to shine. What could hold it back: Tony voters have recently sent very strong messages that they like musicals with new scores (see: Memphis' win) and Bullets borrows all its numbers from the American Songbook. 

*Genlteman's Guide is an incredibly smart musical that has managed success without any big name stars attached to its cast or creators. Its funny, the lyrics witty, the presentation impressive, and the cast gives stellar performances. What could hold it back: Will the voters embrace the new kids on the block when there are so many veterans they could reward? And will the show be able to keep business going once all the new shows have opened?

*If/Then. Idina. Adele Dazeem. It girl of the moment is bringing in people like never before (they were just shy of the $1million a week club in grosses....for a week of previews). She is also given a great deal of material to cover and belts face for essentially the entire time, only briefly leaving the stage. Kitt and Yorkey had great success with Next to Normal and look to innovate again with this show. What could hold it back: Many people are confused by the dual story-line, and multiple re-writes of specific songs to make things clearer are reportedly not clicking yet. Will they fix the book problems by opening?

Best Play 

1.) Mothers and Sons

2.) Casa Valentina

3.) All the Way

4.) Act One

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5.) The Realistic Joneses

6.) The Velocity of Autumn

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7.) Outside Mullingar 

This is the race where no clear frontrunner(s) have emerged. Mothers and Sons is the return of well respected Terrence McNally and Tyne Daly, though reviews seem a bit mixed (I loved it). Could Harvey capture the gold two years in a row with his new play? It certainly offers a lot of promise, with each of the male players getting to don drag and play an alternate persona (which worked well for Kinky Boots). All the Way and Act One have aspects that could snag votes (Bryan Cranston's performance and Moss Harts' legacy), but they are not all around praised as a whole. Be on the look out for Eric Coble or Will Eno to pounce on one of those slots.

Best Revival of a Musical

1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch

2.) Les Miserables

3.) Violet

4.) Cabaret

It remains a mystery if Cabaret will be deemed eligible to compete here (otherwise it will just be shooting for 3 acting bids). But even if its eligible: why would voters want to give the same production yet another Tony? Les Mis is getting wonderful notices for its new staging. It seems no one ever really tires of that show. Though I sense a PR blitz from the Hedwig team coming on full steam ahead. Expect a Harvey Fierstein level of campaigning from them, and NPH's face to be everywhere you turn.

Best Revival of a Play 

1.) The Glass Menagerie

2.) Twelfth Night

3.) A Raisin in the Sun

4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

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5.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill 

6.) Of Mice and Men

7.) Waiting for Godot

8.) Machinal

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9.) Richard III

10.) No Man's Land

If any category is expanded to 5 nominees, I expect it to be this one. There is a tremendous amount of quality productions to choose from. Glass Menagerie could easily do what Virginia Woolf did last year. Though its success is not entirely guaranteed. Twelfth Night was basically heralded as the "definitive" version of the play, and turned into a full on "event". And if audiences at the first few previews of Lady Day are to be trusted: they have somehow whipped together a remarkable production. From Audra's performance to some stunning set design. I will eagerly await the reviews for Of Mice and Men. Will the theatre folk be able to warmly embrace this troupe of Hollywood actors? And will the voters be able to look past Denzel Washington's age in A Raisin in the Sun? I think the true victims of this category will be the McKellen/Stewart productions. With each being performed an equal amount of times per week, and each considered a separate entry...they may cancel each other out once the votes are tallied.