The nominations for the two screenplay categories can be tough to predict correctly. Unlike most other top categories, where we can look to the coming guild nominations as a guide, the Writer's Guild often leaves us flying blind. Many eligibility rules of the WGA run contradictory to the Oscars and always leaves several contenders out of the running. So, without any help from precursor nominations, lets look at the contenders for Best Original Screenplay.
The race for Original Screenplay appears to be the most competitive its been in years. The scripts which I will say are safe for nominations are "Boyhood" and "Birdman". The twelve year process for Richard Linklater's coming of age drama will allow it to find tons of support here. It's a compelling narrative and a solo undertaking. If we look at screenplay winners from year's past, nominees with a single writer tend to have a leg up over efforts with multiple scribes.
That being said, "Birdman" will assuredly find a nomination here even with it's team of four writers. The script is an enormous aide in the overall dreamlike, surreal quality of the film. And voters in the branch worshipping well crafted wordplay will likely be drawn to the way the symbolic dialogue threads the many themes of the story together from scene to scene.
The other two which I feel relatively confident about, but not enough to call them locks are "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and "Whiplash". Wes Anderson isn't always able to find broad Academy appeal for his quirky films, but he has absolutely won over the writer's branch. Even films that weren't major Oscar players have found success in this category. Anderson has a singular voice and they dig it. "Whiplash" has proven to have staying power even if it hasn't lit up the box office. And the writer/director Damien Chazelle has worked his way into the conversation in for both Original Screenplay and Director. He's new to the Oscar game, but could become a new favorite face with this thrillingly paced story.
What gets the last slot? As of right now, I'm tempted to say the love being poured onto Selma will pull it along into several top categories, including this one. But writers Ava DuVernay and Paul Webb have lots of people nipping at their heels. Past nominees Mike Leigh and J.C. Chandor have projects that could make a splash. But, the Academy might think of "Mr. Turner" as merely a showcase for great design. "A Most Violent Year" needs to get past the dark and brooding vibe it gives off to attain some passionate fans.
Beyond that are all films that will need to find a larger well of support. "Foxcatcher" could come off as too cold and unflinching. "Interstellar" wins points for originality of concept, but will also fly over man voter's heads. "Dear White People" would be a wonderful choice, but this is the only race it has a decent chance at, and the campaign isn't as strong as other films in its way. "The LEGO Movie" is certainly going after a nomination here like gangbusters, but they are an animated film that wasn't made by Pixar. Unfortunately, that's tough prejudice to overcome.
Disagree with what I've said? Do you think perhaps something like "Annabelle" has this one locked down instead? Let me know in the comments, and head over to The Contenders to check out my rankings for Best Original Screenplay and other categories.
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