The nominations are out, and its time to look at how the race stands. First up Ill be attempting to sift through the performances in this season's musicals.
Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Genlteman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Andy Karl, Rocky
4.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
5.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
The frontrunner here, without a doubt, is Neil Patrick Harris. Hedwig is a role built for awards. He gets to transform himself, playing completely against type, carrying the entire show. It doesn't hurt that he is also giving the most energetic performance I've ever seen on Broadway, with impeccable timing and a stellar voice. His closest competition is Jefferson Mays. A previous Tony winner for "I Am My Own Wife", Mays gets to create 8 different personas in "A Gentleman's Guide...", giving a tour de force comedic performance full of slapstick, expert delivery, and more quick changes than you can count. Unless Mays' show has enough love to start a big Tonys sweep, it will be hard for anyone to compete with NPH.
Spoiler: Andy Karl. While the show isn't loved by many, I've been seeing an overwhelming amount of goodwill toward Karl. Sometimes voters like to try and crown a new Broadway leading man with this award (see: Steve Kazee) and I have a feeling Andy Karl is going to get a lot of votes for his intensely physical performance. He has also gotten a Broadway.com vlog to boost his profile and the producers have made a push for him with numerous interviews and articles. If ever there was a dark horse, the guy playing Rocky Balboa is it.
Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Mary Bridget Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
This race has been seen as Mueller vs. O'Hara for a long time, and it likely still is. O'Hara has a lot of juicy material and soaring ballads to pour her heart out in during Bridges of Madison County. And though I give a lot of credit to the producers for keeping the show open long enough for voters to see it (many will be in town for the final week since they will be here for the Spring Road Conference), the shows' early closing and relative lack of Tony love do hurt her chances. Which leaves a door open for the newcomer Jessie Mueller. Beautiful really serves as a stellar showcase for this actress, who since making her Tony nominated Broadway debut (in a flop), has worked non-stop to consistent praise. People love her, she's the new "it-girl", and she is likely going to win a Tony. O'hara is certainly not out of the running though. She has her fans in the theatre community, who are certainly just as tired as she is of coming in second place.
Spoiler: Sutton Foster. Yes: She won this category very recently. Yes: She has two Tonys already. But in Violet, Foster gets to play against type. This is a wild departure from her more frothy song-and-dance musicals like Millie or Anything Goes. Here she is at her most emotionally raw and vulnerable, and received love letters in the form of reviews from essentially every outlet. As we have seen in the past from the likes of Audra Goddess McDonald: if they like you, then they really really like you. And many a voter might just really really like Foster.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Joshua Henry, Violet
4.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful
Whether reviewers liked or disliked Aladdin, they all had one thing in common to say: This is the Genie's show. Iglehart lights up the stage whenever he appears, and better yet, makes you miss him when he disappears. Its a scene stealing performance full of immense energy, physicality, and zingers. And I dare say "Friend Like Me" will go down as one of the great showstoppers of this past decade. Hot on his heels is Danny Burstein. Like Ms. O'Hara, he has gotten good at playing the Tony bridesmaid despite a slew of wonderful performances. As the sympathetic Schultz in Cabaret, he wins over the audience without any flashy gimmicks or provocative dancing. He just gives an incredibly nuanced, lived in performance. Like always. In a play, this could be enough for him to win, but voters tend to reward flashier featured roles in the musical categories. The powerhouse Iglehart fits that bill perfectly.
Spoiler: Joshua Henry. A previous nominee for The Scottsboro Boys, Henry provides one of the musical highlights of the season in Violet with the song "Let it Sing". He has a powerful and robust voice, and the song will stay with you long after you've left the theatre. He also plays the most sympathetic man during Violets stage journey, and his chemistry with Sutton Foster is a joy to watch.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
3.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
4.) Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
Without a doubt the most open race of these four acting categories. I'm not really confident at naming it a two horse race at this stage of the game...but since that's the format I've set myself up with, I suppose Ill have to make a call. This is a category where an unknown or seeming dark horse can break through. Nikki M James and Karen Olivo come to mind. So I have a hunch newcomer Lauren Worsham is out in front, even if just by a nose. She is in the Best Musical frontrunner (and likely winner), she gets to play a mix of ingenue and comedy, and she showcases her lovely legit soprano (which is quite a rarity on Broadway these days). With both leading men from "A Gentleman's Guide..." potentially being shut out, this could be the one place to reward the show's stellar cast. Also extremely competitive is Hedwig's Lena Hall. Performing in convincing male drag, Hall adds tremendous depth to a a thinly written character. At the risk of being attacked by die-hard HedHeads, I think she may be the best Yitzhak we've ever seen. She gives a soaring version of "And I Will Always Love You" ala Whitney, and showcases ridiculous vocal precision on her solo number. It also helps that the producers are arguably campaigning just as hard for her as they are for NPH.
Spoiler: Linda Emond. Emond is a beloved theatre veteran who gives a charming and tragic performance as Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret. Many thought she should have won for her last nomination on Death of a Salesman, so that could strike empathy in voters to reward her this go around. Of course, the other two in this category can also be called spoilers given the lack of clear frontrunner. I think that despite her stealing the show with just a few songs, the lack of a "character" will hold back Adriane Lenox from a win for the revue After Midnight. I could also be underestimating Anika Larsen, but Beautiful by and large, seems to be Jessie Mueller's show by consensus. Hopefully the race will clear up as the ceremony draws closer.
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