Who Will Win: Play Performances

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
3.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
4.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
5.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men

Since All the Way opened, Bryan Cranston has been the frontrunner in this category and still remains in that spot. In arguably the most competitive category of the year, where even Denzel Washington couldn't break through, Cranston still looms large over the whole race. Even those who aren't loving the play itself are still singing the Breaking Bad star's praises. And his transformation into LBJ puts him far out ahead of his peers. The closest to him may be Tony Shalhoub in Act One. He gives a terrific performance as George S. Kaufman, complete with his signature eccentricities the actor perfected on so many seasons of Monk.  Shalhoub is also saddled with playing Moss Harts' father and an older version of Hart who narrates his past.  Many find issue with the multiple narrators motif and it may be what holds Shalhoub back from a win.

Spoiler: Samuel Barnett. Tim Carroll's Twelfth Night came out swinging with nominators and the production is clearly beloved. Leading that pack is an impressive performance Barnett. The actor dons drag (which seems to help with Tonys these days) in this traditional style performance as Viola. Many critics singled him out for his sensitive and convincingly feminine performance. Some prognosticators are going with Rylance's Richard III as a possible upset.  However, Tony voters are not required to attend all productions like the nominators are, and I think too few will have viewed its 2-show-a-week run.


Best Actress in a Play
1.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
3.) LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn.

This category should be called "Clash of the Titans". McDonald and Jones, theatre royalty, are up against each other and no one can be sure who will ultimately win. Both performers received rapturous praise from audiences and critics alike. Many thought Ms. Jones had this in the bag when Glass Menagerie opened. But then along came Audra. In Lady Day, her transformation into Billie Holiday defies logic as she goes against type to play the drug addicted jazz singer. When she opens her mouth for the first time, the audience gasps at the sound coming out. Although this race is as close as flipping a coin, the fact that Mcdonald's show is still open, and that she carries that whole thing by herself, I have a feeling Audra will take the win. May some voters want to reward Jones with a third Tony before Audra breaks the all time record with 6? Of course. But, when youre this good it's sort of hard to argue.

Spoiler: LaTanya Richardson Jackson. Now, if anyone other than the two aforementioned actresses has their name called on June 8th...I'll probably have a heart attack. But if by some miracle it happens: Jackson would be the one to do it. She is in a show with multiple nominations that draws great audience response. Plus, her decision to accept the role last minute after Diahann Carroll dropped out (mid rehearsal process) gives her a great narrative of which theatre legends are born.


Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

The Tonys just love Mark Rylance. A double nominee this year, his gender-bending performance as Olivia in Twelfth Night is the one that will likely score him another trophy. Voters cant get enough of him and neither could audiences earlier this season. Can anyone compete with such a talked about role? I have a hunch Brian J. Smith is the man to do it. His "Gentleman Caller" scene was one of the highlights of The Glass Menagerie revival. The consensus from many a theatre devotee was he was that Smith gave the scene new meaning. Though he has had previous roles in plays such as "The Columnist", this became his breakout. Oh, and everybody also loves staring at his abs. If anyone can take down an awards favorite its the guy who's the new talk of the town.

Spoiler: Reed Birney. Another gender defying role (Im sensing a trend here) that everyone is talking about. Though the entire cast of Casa Valentina is sublime, longtime theatre vet Birney has a viper of a part. As the villainous Charlotte, the actor wastes not a single gesture or vocal inflection. His presence is felt the moment he steps on stage, and he uses his voice like a blade to calmly and coolly cut the legs out from under his adversaries.  Its a searing transformation that doesn't leave you when the play is finished. Mr. Birney has been on the scene a long while, and voters may feel its finally time to reward him.


Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
3.) Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan

This may be the most up for grabs of all the acting races. Celia Keenan-Bolger is loved in the Broadway community, and though she missed out on some precursor nods, I think she is the favorite to win. If only by a hair.  Her performance as Laura in The Glass Menagerie showed the actress, primarily known for musicals, could flex her dramatic chops alongside one of the greatest living stage actors. There is love for the play, love for her, and in a year without a clear frontrunner that kind of affection can push you over the edge. Mare Winningham is coming off a win (albeit a tie) from the Outer Critics Circle. She gives a lovely subtle performance in Casa Valentina. But the subtlety could be what holds her back, as the featured category often (though not always) rewards flashier roles. She does get to deliver the last line of the play, and is one of the most sympathetic figures in the piece.

Spoiler: Anika Noni Rose. The two A Raisin in the Sun actresses form an interesting conundrum. Sophie Okonedo plays the role which usually garners more awards recognition, being the slightly larger and more central character. But audiences fell for Anika Noni Rose's portrayal of Beneatha. The praise was unanimous and she often walks off with most of the scenes in which she appears. Ms. Rose has had a wonderful career in the theatre thus far and the only reason she isn't ranked higher is because she must compete against a formidable co-star.