Surveying the Field Part 3: Play Performances

Part Three of my overview of eligible candidates for this years Tonys. Lets look at the actor's in this season's straight plays.

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones,  The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Son
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn
spoilers
6.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
7.) Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses
8.) Marissa Tomei, The Realistic Joneses
9.) Debra Messing, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Rachel Weisz, Betrayal
11.) Mary-Louise Parker, Snow Geese

Now a key spot in these predictions obviously hinges on Lady Day being considered a revival of a play rather than a musical.  My hunch is that they aim for a "play with music" billing similar to "Over the Rainbow" and get the committee to place them here. This will then lead to an epic showdown between Audra McDonald and Cherry Jones. Im truthfully not sure anyone has the power to surpass those two. Tyne Daly is a strong third place, but the part is less showy than her rivals. It was wonderful to watch but it could be a hard role to win with. Will voters like The Realistic Joneses enough to nominate either, or both, of its leading ladies? And will they still remember the far-too-limited run of Machinal to give Rebecca Hall a very deserved nomination? We will have to wait for reviews and general consensus to arise from Raisin in the Sun and Velocity of Autumn to make a better guess.

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Ian McKellen, Waiting for Godot
spoilers
6.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
7.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
8.) Patrick Page, Casa Valentina
9.) Patrick Stewart, Waiting for Godot
10.) James Franco, Of Mice and Men
long shots
11.) Tracy Letts, The Realistic Joneses
12.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
13.) Michael C. Hall, The Realisitc Joneses
14.) Stephen Spinella, The Velocity of Autumn
15.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
16.) Santino Fontana, Act One
17.) Brian F. O'Byrne, Outside Mullingar

This is undoubtedly the hardest performance category to call. It should also be noted that eligibility for Casa Valentina and Act One has not been determined. No one is billed above the title or even given separate billing lines in either production and they could theoretically have the entire cast under featured. Bryan Cranston is the only one I can safely call with any confidence, coming of rave reviews and a great year in TV. Radcliffe has been spurned before, but I have hopes that third time will be a charm (since he really was robbed last time). Washington and McKellen seem the most vulnerable and could easily be taken out by any number of candidates (which is a strange thing to write for such actors, but there are an abundance of male driven plays this year). I expect many will wholeheartedly disagree with these rankings. I think even I disagree with them. Ill probably change them 100 times until nominations are announced.

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Andrea Martin, Act One
5.) Ingrid Craigie, The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
6.) Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar
7.) Victoria Clark, The Snow Geese
8.) Leighton Meester, Of Mice and Men
9.) Anika Noni-Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
long shots
10.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
11.) Jayne Houdyshell, Romeo and Juliet
12.) Lisa Emery, Casa Valentina
13.) Tonya Pinkins, A Time to Kill

I have to say this is the thinnest acting race of the season, and Ms Keenan-Bolger may easily walk away with her first Tony award. Sarah Greene just received and Olivier nomination for Inishmaan and with little competition, both she and her frequent scene partner Ingrid Craigie could both land noms. They will likely give Andrea Martin a nomination just for being the gem that is Andrea Martin (and bringing in the few much needed comedic beats of Act One). Simply because I cant see many of the roles igniting much passion among voters, be on the look out for veterans in not so well received plays to catch fire.  If nominators don't have a lot of options they might figure, why not throw bone to Victoria Clark or Jayne Houdyshell?


Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Michael McKean, All the Way
3.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Frederick Weller, Mothers and Sons
5.) John Cullum, Casa Valentina
spoilers
6.) Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men
7.) Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons
8.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
9.) Peter Maloney, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Padraic Delaney, The Cripple of Inishmaan
11.) Shuler Hensley, Waiting for Godot
12.) Samuel Barnett, Richard III
13.) Michael Cumptsy, Machinal
14.) Billy Crudup, Waiting for Godot
15.) Pat Shortt, Cripple of Inishmaan
16. David Cromer, A Raisin in the Sun

As mentioned in the lead actor race above: Casa Valentina and Act One will remain question marks until later in April. Its possible we could see Santino Fontana, Tony Shalhoub, and Patrick Page moved to this category. Which would make a much more heated race. As it stands now, the real race seems to be Rylance vs McKean. Im giving the edge to Rylance as Viola because he's simply brilliant.  Frederick Weller is essentially a co-lead in Mothers and Sons so he has the benefit of a very large role in the featured category. And despite his small part, Brian J Smith had everyone singing his praises and could very well end up as the first actor to ever get a nomination for the Gentleman Caller. At this early stage (assuming eligibility remains as Ive outlined it) the fifth slot is basically up for grabs.

Surveying the Field Part 2: Musical Performances

I last covered the big four awards, and now its time to look at where things stand for the actors.

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrik Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
5.) Andy Karl, Rocky
spoilers
6.) Zach Braff, Bullets Over Broadway
7.) Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
8.) Steven Pasquale, Bridges of Madison County
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9.) Will Swenson, Les Miserables
10.) Adam Jacobs, Aladdin
11.) Zachary Levi, First Date

The first 3 seem like locks to me.  Although NPH is obviously sight unseen, I highly doubt they wont throw the former Tony host a bone for this trans-formative performance (which requires him to essentially carry the whole thing). And while double nominations can be difficult to pull off, the two leads in Gentleman's Guide are simply too good not to show up here. The fifth slot seems most up for grabs. Andy Karl is getting great reviews...its too bad he's stuck in a show that isnt. Zach Braff, who is generating great word of mouth with his Bway debut could swoop in and nab one Bullets likely numerous tony nominations. And though the show closed early: never underestimate the power of the Butz. If there is a surprise nomination anywhere, he is the most likely to land a successful sneak attack.

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Sutton Foster, Violet
5.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
spoilers
6.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
7.) Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
Possible?
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill

Best Actress in a Musical, otherwise known as Bloodbath Battle Royale: Broadway Edition. In any other year, any one of these 7 ladies would be the clear frontrunner to win. So who gets left out? Will the perceived money-grabbing tactics from the Cabaret revival be enough to oust Michelle Williams in her Broadway debut? Idina Menzel has never been more popular (her cover issue of Billboard Magazine is the first issue to sell out in 2014) and its hard to imagine a world where she doesn't ride this wave to another nomination and likely win. Of course with so many past winners in contention, will the voters finally reward perennial bridesmaid O'Hara? Then there's Audra. There is much debate over whether Lady Day will be eligible under play or musical. My gut says it will be categorized as a play for the Tonys...but if its not, things just got even more complicated.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) James Snyder, If/Then
spoilers
6.) Cliff Saunders, Les Miserables
7.) Brooks Ashmankas, Bullets Over Broadway
8.) Vincent Pastore, Bullets Over Broadway
long shots
9.) Dule Hill, After Midnight
10.) Colin Donnell, Violet
11.) Anthony Rapp, If/Then
12.) Terrence Archie, Rocky
13.) Jonathan Freeman, Aladdin

Featured categories are notoriously hard to predict at the Tonys. But, as of right now this is Iglehart's to lose. The acting in Aladdin has taken some hits in reviews, but they've had nothing but love letters for the resident Genie. He walks away with this show, and "Friend Like Me" will be a number people will be talking about til this time next year. The somehow still Tony-less Burstein should prove a strong challenger though (he and Kelli O'Hara should do an act together). Its difficult to predict which of the featured Bullets men has the muscle to unite enough voters for a nomination, but Cordero seems to have the most praise out of the 3. The question is if they can achieve a double nomination here.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
2.) Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
4.) Caissie Levy, Les Miserables
5.) La Chanze, If/Then
spoilers
6.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
7.) Keala Settle, Les Miserables
8.) Andiranne Lenox, After Midnight
9.) Betsy Wolfe, Bullets Over Broadway
long shots
10.) Kate Baldwin, Big Fish
11.) Margo Seibert, Rocky
12.) Cass Morgan, Bridges of Madison County
13.) Jane Carr, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
14.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
15.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
16.) Fantasia Barrino, After Midnight
17.) Amber Iman, Soul Doctor

There's a ton of talent to choose from in this category, and things could shake out many different ways between now and the end of April. This could be another battle between Cabaret and Bullets like the male featured race. All three Gentleman's Guide ladies are terrific, but O'Hare has the most to work with, and gets the most comedic elements (which this category frequently rewards). There are several shows that will attempt to make a double nomination happen here (After Midnight is even bringing Fantasia back during the Tony voting period). However, with all this competition I'm not sure anyone can manage more than one nominee here. LaChanze sits it the vulnerable spot because voters could view If/Then as "the Idina show" making it harder for the featured players to find enough love.

Surveying the Field

Most of the shows that will debut this season are at least in previews, with the few late bloomers beginning performances this coming week. So here's a look at some current standings for the Big Four:

Best Musical

1.) Bullets Over Broadway

2.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

3.) If/Then

4.) Beautiful

spoilers

5.) Rocky

6.) Bridges of Madison County

long shots

7.) Aladdin

8.) After Midnight

It seems like a 3 horse race for best musical between 3 very different productions. 

*Bullets has the power of Stroman plus the feel good vibe of a glitzy golden-age-of-Broadway story. Plus a very talented ensemble that all get a chance to shine. What could hold it back: Tony voters have recently sent very strong messages that they like musicals with new scores (see: Memphis' win) and Bullets borrows all its numbers from the American Songbook. 

*Genlteman's Guide is an incredibly smart musical that has managed success without any big name stars attached to its cast or creators. Its funny, the lyrics witty, the presentation impressive, and the cast gives stellar performances. What could hold it back: Will the voters embrace the new kids on the block when there are so many veterans they could reward? And will the show be able to keep business going once all the new shows have opened?

*If/Then. Idina. Adele Dazeem. It girl of the moment is bringing in people like never before (they were just shy of the $1million a week club in grosses....for a week of previews). She is also given a great deal of material to cover and belts face for essentially the entire time, only briefly leaving the stage. Kitt and Yorkey had great success with Next to Normal and look to innovate again with this show. What could hold it back: Many people are confused by the dual story-line, and multiple re-writes of specific songs to make things clearer are reportedly not clicking yet. Will they fix the book problems by opening?

Best Play 

1.) Mothers and Sons

2.) Casa Valentina

3.) All the Way

4.) Act One

spoilers

5.) The Realistic Joneses

6.) The Velocity of Autumn

long shots

7.) Outside Mullingar 

This is the race where no clear frontrunner(s) have emerged. Mothers and Sons is the return of well respected Terrence McNally and Tyne Daly, though reviews seem a bit mixed (I loved it). Could Harvey capture the gold two years in a row with his new play? It certainly offers a lot of promise, with each of the male players getting to don drag and play an alternate persona (which worked well for Kinky Boots). All the Way and Act One have aspects that could snag votes (Bryan Cranston's performance and Moss Harts' legacy), but they are not all around praised as a whole. Be on the look out for Eric Coble or Will Eno to pounce on one of those slots.

Best Revival of a Musical

1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch

2.) Les Miserables

3.) Violet

4.) Cabaret

It remains a mystery if Cabaret will be deemed eligible to compete here (otherwise it will just be shooting for 3 acting bids). But even if its eligible: why would voters want to give the same production yet another Tony? Les Mis is getting wonderful notices for its new staging. It seems no one ever really tires of that show. Though I sense a PR blitz from the Hedwig team coming on full steam ahead. Expect a Harvey Fierstein level of campaigning from them, and NPH's face to be everywhere you turn.

Best Revival of a Play 

1.) The Glass Menagerie

2.) Twelfth Night

3.) A Raisin in the Sun

4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

spoilers

5.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill 

6.) Of Mice and Men

7.) Waiting for Godot

8.) Machinal

long shots

9.) Richard III

10.) No Man's Land

If any category is expanded to 5 nominees, I expect it to be this one. There is a tremendous amount of quality productions to choose from. Glass Menagerie could easily do what Virginia Woolf did last year. Though its success is not entirely guaranteed. Twelfth Night was basically heralded as the "definitive" version of the play, and turned into a full on "event". And if audiences at the first few previews of Lady Day are to be trusted: they have somehow whipped together a remarkable production. From Audra's performance to some stunning set design. I will eagerly await the reviews for Of Mice and Men. Will the theatre folk be able to warmly embrace this troupe of Hollywood actors? And will the voters be able to look past Denzel Washington's age in A Raisin in the Sun? I think the true victims of this category will be the McKellen/Stewart productions. With each being performed an equal amount of times per week, and each considered a separate entry...they may cancel each other out once the votes are tallied.