"The Sammys" 2016: If I Was an Oscar Voter

After sifting through as many movies as I could, and listening to an awards race that hasn't always represented my own personal tastes, I've whittled down my own personal picks for who should be the nominees and winners this year.

The hardest category by far was Cinematography. It has been a banner year for the craft and I could have easily filled out ten nomination slots. I'm still not happy with my lineup because I was forced to leave out stunning photography from the likes of Carol, Brooklyn, and Black Mass. But I forced myself to make some Sophie's choices and get to five nominees.

As for best picture, the year in film came down to two defining movie-going experiences. Brooklyn and Mad Max: Fury Road. It is a crime that neither has much hope at an actual Oscar win for Best Picture.

One one hand is George Miller's magnum opus. The director revisits his crown jewel franchise after nearly four decades, brings a celebrated cinematographer out of retirement, suffers an unprecedented amount of production woes and setbacks, and rockets his cast through the desert on actual tricked out rigs. The result is a nearly wordless action-opera raging with adrenaline, that has a surprising amount to say about survival, women, greed, and humanity. And it does so through wondrous visual storytelling that creates a world so fully realized, it seems to have existed even before Miller set foot there. After the dust settles on this awards season, Mad Max will be long remembered as the year's crowning achievement.

In the other hand sits Brooklyn. Detractors have jabbed the film for being too "classic" or predictable in its story. I would argue that crafting a classic romance such as this in toady's attention deficit society is a near impossible feat. The story is rather straightforward, but skillfully adapted to bring each character to life and has the audience hanging on every moment. Saoirse Ronan proves herself to be one of the most captivating actors of her generation. As Eilis, her eyes soak in as much emotion as they give back, and through subtle shifts in voice and physicality, she transforms into a new woman before our eyes.

I oscillated between these two stunning films over and over. But eventually, the emotional gut punch of Brooklyn cemented the film as my winner. I may not have traveled across the Atlantic, but the film's conception of new beginnings and "home" struck a chord. A year after graduating college, I hopped on a bus with nothing but two large bags and an address, and moved to New York. The mixed feelings of excitement and liberation, coupled with dread and anxiety, that this sort of "starting over" brings has never been so perfectly captured on film. Rarely has a film made me feel as emotionally full as Brooklyn. It deserves its spot at the top.

Now to the good stuff: The 2016 "Sammys"

Best Picture
10.) Spy
9.) Carol
8.) The Martian
7.) Room
6.) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5.) Ex Machina
4.) Spotlight
3.) Inside Out
2.) Mad Max: Fury Road
1.) Brooklyn

Best Director
John Crowley Brooklyn
Pete Docter, Inside Out
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (runner-up)

Best Actor
Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
Matt Damon, The Martian (runner-up)
Leonardo Dicaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jacob Tremblay, Room (winner)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Brie Larson, Room (runner-up)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (winner)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Best Supporting Actor
Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (runner-up)
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina (winner)
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
Rose Byrne, Spy
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Sarah Paulson, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (winner)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Original Screenplay
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out (runner-up)
Spotlight (winner)
Spy

Best Adapted Screenplay
45 Years
Brooklyn (winner)
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs (runner-up)

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out (winner)
The Prophet
When Marnie Was There (runner-up)

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Sicario (runner-up)
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Cinematography
It Follows
The Revenant (winner)
Macbeth
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Sicario

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak (winner)
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn (winner)
Carol (runner-up)
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Carol
Macbeth (runner-up)
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
Mr. Holmes

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Mad Max: Fury Road (runner-up)
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (winner)

Best Score
The Hateful Eight
It Follows (winner)
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)

Best Sound Editing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Martian
Sicario (runner-up)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing
Love and Mercy
Mad Max: Fury Road (winner)
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (runner-up)
Straight Outta Compton

Best Ensemble
Dope (runner-up)
The Martian
Spotlight (winner)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

Best Breakthrough Performer
Abraham Attah
John Boyega
Daisy Ridley (runner-up)
Jacob Tremblay
Alicia Vikander (winner)

Biggest Disappointment of the Year
The Danish Girl

Entertainer of the Year
Cate Blanchett
Michael Fassbender
Harrison Ford
Domhnall Gleeson
Tom Hardy
Jennifer Lawrence
Pixar Animation Studios (winner)
Chris Pratt
Amy Schumer
Charlize Theron
Alicia Vikander


WINS
Mad Max: Fury Road - 5
Brooklyn - 4
Ex Machina - 2
Spotlight - 2
Crimson Peak  - 1
Inside Out - 1
It Follows - 1
Room - 1
The Revenant  - 1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 1

Final Predictions: Who Will Win?

After an awards season full of surprises and shifting front-runners, we are almost at Oscar night. I have compiled a breakdown of every Oscar category (even the shorts!) and who I'm placing bets on to emerge victorious. If you want to be the envy of your Oscar viewing party or win the office pool, look no further. Of course, no one truly knows what will happen, or what goes on in the minds of Academy voters (and surprises always make the evening fun), but this is the best guess and final word on the 2016 Oscars.

I have withheld on including a "should win" citation because I am releasing my annual list of personal nominees and winners tomorrow before the ceremony. Stay tuned!

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight

The guilds have given us mixed tea leaves by going three ways: SAG (actors) chose Spotlight, PGA (producers) chose The Big Short, and the DGA (directors) chose The Revenant. The PGA uses the same preferential ballot that the Oscars use to determine Best Picture, and that alone makes me want to go with the timely The Big Short. However, The Revenant train gained steam late in the game, just after PGA voting and picked up the BAFTA along the way and leads with nominations. I can't see The Big Short winning any other category except adapted screenplay, while Leo's slog through the snow could easily net 4-5 wins. The race is the closest I've ever seen, but I have to put money on The Revenant.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Winning back to back director prizes is rare (only John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz have achieved that feat), but Inarritu looks poised to strike gold again. He has the Globes, BAFTA, and (most importantly) DGA backing his claim. George Miller helmed the other epic in contention, but he really needed the guild or the Brits to speak up for him to be more of a threat. 

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo...but not really

Leo has run the table with the Critics, Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. All of Hollywood is in agreement that it is finally time to give the overdue actor his Oscar and I can't see anything slowing him down. Bryan Cranston is charming and a savvy campaigner (he was really Argo's secret Oscar weapon), but as the sole nominee from Trumbo, he will have to be content to watch from his seat.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Brie Larson, Room

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Brie Larson is just about as locked up as Leo, similarly claiming nearly every best actress prize this season. Some have tried to throw mystery into the race by saying her absence in the film's second half makes her vulnerable. But her main challenger (Ronan) really needed the BAFTA to come to her aide...and they didnt. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Could Win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Sometimes getting the nomination is the biggest hurdle. And now that Sly has crossed it, there is no reason not to expect "the champ" on the Oscar stage. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year (he failed to win for Rocky almost four decades ago) and he has been charming his way through Oscar season. Many pundits think his challenger is Mark Rylance, but that Hollywood outsider has been working on a new play and is not one to actively campaign. The real threat to Mr. Balboa is Hardy, who stars in not one, but two best picture nominees. It's a long shot, but he stands a small chance at getting swept in with The Revenant.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Vikander benefits from having a lead performance (aka more screentime) in a supporting category, and voters will have also watched her in the twice nominated Ex Machina. Kate Winslet has taken the Globe and BAFTA for her powerful role in Steve Jobs, but only when she was not competing against Viaknder's role in The Danish Girl. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Straight Outta Compton

Spotlight has this one in the bag and it is likely the film's only win of the night. Inside Out or Straight Outta Compton would be more of a threat if either had broke into the best picture field, or amassed precursor support. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Big Short

Could Win: The Martian

Another easy call for a well liked best picture frontrunner. It's possible The Martian or Room could come out of left field for a win (they only have one credited writer, which the Academy likes), but The Big Short tackled a complicated subject well and should take this one in a landslide.  

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Big Short

The winner here is often the one with the "most" editing, or most obvious editing (see: Whiplash over Boyhood). So the immense, un-ending car chase of Mad Max should easily find votes here. Though The Big Short has been singled out for its stylish editing, and if it wins this category, look out for the film to surprise in best picture at the end of the night.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

It looks like a three-peat for Emmanuel Lubezki. His work on The Revenant has swept the awards circuit and the Oscars will follow suit. If a surprise is lurking its John Seale, who came out of retirement to shoot the beautiful chaos of Mad Max.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: Bridge of Spies

The production design in Mad Max is responsible for creating an entire world, from the tricked out death-mobiles to the cult members fortress. Unless they feel like rewarding a meticulously done period piece (and a best picture winner likely to go home empty handed) with Bridge of Spies, this is a sure bet for Mad Max. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Danish Girl...or any of them

One of the hardest categories to predict. Truly, all five have a shot at winning. I think voters will appreciate the overall look and tone of Mad Max, and voters will check this one off to go with the movie's other two design wins. The Danish Girl has further support with a production design and two acting nominations, so the period gowns could score here. Though the same can be said for Carol. It'll be close, but I'm going for a Mad Max design sweep.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Mad Max has the most makeup, and its also the boldest. As said above, the design elements are necessary aides for the film's world building. In The Revenant, everyone just looks dirty.

BEST SCORE

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Quentin Tarantino has been beating the drum loudly for legendary composer Ennio Morricone to finally take home a competitive Oscar after scoring (literally) hundreds of films. However, composers names do not appear on the Oscar ballot, so voters who are unaware of that narrative might go for John William's pronounced work on the latest Star Wars (his 50th nomination).

BEST SONG

Will Win: 'Til it Happens to You', The Hunting Ground

Could Win: 'Earned it', Fifty Shades of Grey

Eighth time should be the charm for perennial Oscar loser Dianne Warren. With no anthemic radio hit in contention this year, the Warren/Lady Gaga collaboration creates a winner with a powerful message at its core. The Weekend could potentially rain on their parade thanks to a boost from his recent Grammy performance and wins. Ultimately, I think many voters might balk at awarding Fifty Shades of Grey an Oscar, no matter how good the song is. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant

Precedent tells us that a best picture nominee will win this category if one is in contention. But Star Wars screams visual effects more than any other film and it's an easy place for them to reward the biggest movie of the year. Mad Max might win over actual effects artists for its practical work, and The Revenant could pull of an upset for the strikingly realistic bear attack scene. 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

The corresponding guild does not announce winners until tonight, so we are a bit blind in this category. The loudest film tends to win, and it helps to be a best picture nominee. The car chases and explosions should give this to Mad Max, but don't count out the intense battle sequences of The Revenant. 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I'm dangerously picking a split in the sound categories. While this is not uncommon, it is a risky move since most voters don't know what the difference between the categories are, and you can pick the wrong split. My thought is that voters will appreciate the soundscape of the wilderness that comes together during The Revenant's many dialogue free stretches. But Mad Max could easily get checked off for both editing and mixing. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Inside Out

Don't overthink this one you guys. Nothing else stands a chance. Sorry, Anomalisa.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Amy

Could Win: Cartel Land

Amy has the perfect storm of critical and popular success. Its an excellent documentary and its also the most widely seen of the bunch. Netlfix has poured tons of money into its campaign for What Happened Miss Simone?, and if it wasn't competing against a more popular music doc, it might win. But the real spoiler is the powerful and timely Cartel Land, which has struck a chord with many Academy voters.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Son of Saul

Could Win: Mustang

If voters actually watched all the nominees, then this would be a real horse race between the two frontrunners. But many members vote without seeing them all (or any of them, sadly). So the film about the holocaust and with more name recognition will take it. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Could Win: Bear Story

Both frontrunners contain the heartwarming "aww" factor necessary to win this category. Sanjay's Super Team benefits from a wide release and an army of Pixar/Disney voters in the Academy who are bound to support it. Bear Story has made its way to Netflix and is reminiscent of the quirky art direction of past winner Mr. Hublot. I give Pixar the edge in a close race.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Could Win: Body Team 12 or Girl in the River

Remember how I mentioned that not every voters sees all the films? They may not have seen all the shorts but the older members of the Academy will know Claude Lanzmann and his film Shoah. So he may get votes via name recognition as a way to honor him. Body Team 12 and Girl in the River received more favorable reviews, and will get votes from those who have watched the films. 

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Ave Maria

Could Win: Shok

Ave Maria is the lightest film of the bunch. While critics and audiences are divided over the success of its comedy, the tone will set it apart from its heavier competition. If the Academy is willing to embrace weightier subject matter, they might lean towards Shok. The film is set in the Kosovo war and has been cited for its stellar screenplay and central performance. 

NERDS Full Cast Announced!

The latest musical to make a last minute announcement for this season was the long gestating NERDS. The new musical comedy chronicles the rivalry of Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, and will being previews at the Longacre Theatre on April 1st, with an opening night set for April 24th.

Today, the creative team announced Tony nominee Rory O'Malley (Book of Mormon) and Bryan Fenkart (Memphis) will lead the company as Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, respectively. The cast will also feature Lindsay Mendez as Myrtle, Patti Murin as Sally, Benny Elledge as Steve Wozniak, Rob Morrison as Paul Allen, and Kevin Pariseau as Tom Watson.

NERDS features book and lyrics by Jordan Allen-Dutton & Erik Weiner, music by Hal Goldberg, direction by Casey Hushion, and choreography by Joshua Bergasse. Additional choreography from Denis Jones.

Contenders pages will be updated to reflect this new set of Nerds!

2016 Oscar Nominations Reaction

Well, we knew there would be surprises.

Despite my best efforts at predicting the shockers (like moving Alicia Vikander into Lead for The Danish Girl, oops!) I still had many a miss on my ballot. Though I got four of the nominees correct in most categories. And all eight Best Picture contenders were listed in my top ten. So where do we stand now?

The race is wide open. Perhaps even more so than before. With a whopping 12 nominations (only the 15th film in Academy history to reach that number), The Revenant is looking pretty damn good. True it missed a screenplay nod, but it isn't a particularly dialogue heavy film. It's strength lies in its stark contrast to the smaller "issue driven" front-runners (I'll get to them in a minute). The Revenant is epic film-making. This is a filmmaker's movie, one that you go to the cinema to see.

The two other films which had previous sat atop the pile were Spotlight and The Big Short. Both films give you a cause to root for them, sexual abuse in the church and the destruction of the housing market, respectively. They are well made movies with actors you love. And they scored across the important categories: director, acting, screenplay, and editing. Spotlight is slightly ahead the way I see it. After struggling to find nominations for its actors in the precursors and getting shut out of the Eddie awards, it rallied with two acting nominations and showed up in editing at the Oscars.

Trailing close behind is Mad Max: Fury Road. In second place for most nominations with an impressive 10, the film has resonated across most of the Academy branches. It has great odds to dominate the crafts categories and even wind up with the most wins of the night. One other curious revelation occurred in it's favor: The Martian director Ridley Scott was shockingly snubbed. Scott has been competing with George Miller all season for the best director trophy as a sort of de facto lifetime achievement award. Miller now has a major hurdle out of the way.

Can any of the other films take the top prize? The Martian was ranked high in many pundit's predictions, but the film may have been crippled by its snubs in director and editing. If the campaign can smartly turn Ridley Scott's absence into outrage (a la Ben Affleck and Argo) then maybe the film has a shot. But when it has to go up against Mad Max, Star Wars, and The Revenant in most of the craft categories...how many trophies can it really win?

Bridge of Spies performed well, but came up short for Spielberg and the Coen brothers. It has a shot at supporting actor and score, but not much else. Brooklyn has the fewest nominations of the best picture players, but distributor Fox Searchlight is an expert at navigating the awards field (they've won the past two years). Best Picture may not be in the cards this time, but I wouldn't be shocked if their savvy campaign can eek out best actress or adapted screenplay.

Room is the true dark horse candidate this year. After performing terribly with the guilds, it made a comeback taking a best director slot for Lenny Abrahamson. I would have loved to see young Jacob Tremblay nominated as well, but he didn't stand a chance in the crowded supporting actor field.

Speaking of which: get ready for Sly Stallone. His biggest hurdle was just getting the nomination, and he managed that. He has the best narrative of any nominee this year. He is campaigning, being humble and charming and saying all the right things. Everyone wants to see him on stage, finally taking home a trophy decades after creating Rocky. His closest competition is Mark Rylance. The theatre legend will certainly take the BAFTA in his native UK and has the love for Bridge of Spies on his side, but he is still relatively unknown in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress is the most difficult to predict. Kate Winslet recently took home the Golden Globe, but she didn't have to compete with Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara. The Oscar voters listened to the category fraud and said "eh, we don't care" and threw both ladies in supporting. As recent winners indicate, a beefy lead role in supporting tends to take home the gold. Vikander is the "it girl" of the season and portrays a more dominant character, so she has a slight edge. But that category is anyone's game.

Over in animated feature we saw my GKIDS prediction come true, though not necessarily the way I thought. I'm angry for not sticking with my gut, which told me The Good Dinosaur was out and When Marnie Was There was in...alas. I am surprised The Prophet didn't make the cut, but it seems the branch preferred the more inventive art style of Boy and the World. In any case, Inside Out has this one in the bag. Sorry, Anomalisa.

Now that the entire Academy can vote on the winners of best foreign film and documentary, the widely seen entries are far out in front. So, Son of Saul and Amy should feel comfy in their respective categories. Their closest competitors are the only female directed nominees in any category: Mustang and What Happened Miss Simone?. Though I don't think either of them have the campaign or awards presence to take down their bigger rivals.

As for disappointments on nomination morning, I will again bang the drum to going back to a set number of ten nominees. Academy members are annoyed Star Wars didn't make the cut to boost their ratings. More dire is the absence of Straight Outta Compton from the best picture lineup and the reintroduction of #OscarsSoWhite. I normally don't go in on the Academy for the lack of diversity since they are so often a symptom and not the root problem. By and large it is the industry itself that needs to change. But, when you have a film like Compton that did well with audiences, critics, and the box office? Frankly, it looks ridiculous to not include it among the year's best. Idris Elba's snub stings too. This should have been the year when an actor who continually puts out exceptional work (seriously, has he ever been bad in anything??) finally gets his due. If the Academy went back to a guaranteed ten best picture nominees, look at the bubble films that may have made the cut: Straight Outta Compton and Creed (two excellent films from black filmmakers), Carol (a film from a female perspective so desperately needed), and Inside Out (how does the most inventive film of the year not break out of its ghettoized category?). Any of those films would have made the Best Picture lineup more diverse, more interesting, more emblematic of the wonderful year in film that was 2015.

The Oscar ceremony will air Sunday February 28th. The race can (and probably will) shift a number of ways until then, as studios shovel cash into heavy campaigning in this wide open season. One thing is for certain: as the only black man guaranteed to take the Oscar stage, Chris Rock is going to have a field day.

DGA Nominees Solidify Oscar Hopefuls

The 2016 Directors Guild of America announced their annual nominees today. This is an important precursor in the Oscar race since it is a guild of around 1,600 members (much larger than the 377 strong directors branch of The Academy). In fact, this guild award is often more significant in terms of predicting Best Picture nominees than Best Director at the Oscars, because of the large voting body. So while the directors in the Academy sometimes have a slot for a dark horse, quirky candidate, the DGA shows who is leading the pack. And today's nominations reflect the presumed front-runners of this awards season:

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

In addition, the DGA announced nominees for the inaugural "best directorial achievement for a first time feature film director". Eligible films must be released in New York and Los Angeles within 2015. Foreign films and non-DGA members are eligible for this award.

Best First Feature Film Director
Fernando Coimbra, A Wolf at the Door
Joel Edgerton, The Gift
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Marielle Heller, Diary of a Teenage Girl
Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

So are the five DGA picks our Oscar nominees as well? Likely. But the smaller number of voters at the Academy makes room for more distinctive choices. McCarthy, McKay and Miller would all be first time Oscar nominees (they are first time DGA nominees as well) and one does wonder if the Academy has room for 3 "new" faces. Especially with old guard types like Spielberg and Haynes are waiting in the wings. While one of the three Academy newcomers may be unexpectedly snubbed, the DGA shows that all five films have serious widespread appeal. They are all but certain to show up in Best Picture.

PGA Nominations Shake Up Oscar Race

Hello all!

I have been slacking a bit and not posting thoughts about the Oscar race thus far (though as usual, I have kept the contenders pages pretty up to date with my predictions/thoughts). Perhaps slacking isn't the best word: in addition to my day job, I have been lucky enough to do a good deal of traveling and performing. But now I'm back, and today is the make or break day for many Oscar hopeful films.

Below are the just announced 2016 PGA Nominees:

Motion Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Animated Motion Picture
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Minions
The Peanuts Movie

The PGA is the most important of the guild awards in terms of Oscar prognosticators, because it uses the same preferential ballot as the Academy to decide its Best Picture nominees. Last year, the PGA nominees foresaw 7 our of 8 Oscar nominees (The PGA guarantees 10 slots, while the Academy has anywhere from 5-10). So scoring with the producers is a very good omen.

Last year, the three darkest PGA contenders (Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher) were the ones to miss at the Oscars. With that in mind, the picture most likely left out of the Academy lineup would be the android thriller Ex Machina (though I will jump for joy if it makes the cut). It also means The Hateful Eight is likely dead in the water in terms of Best Picture odds. Room was also left out of the PGA field, but the intimate nature of the film is more in line with Academy tastes, so don't lose hope on it yet.

The most notable snubs are Carol and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. After dominating many a critic award, Carol also failed to net a Art Directors Guild nomination this morning (the equivalent of Best Production Design at the Oscars). Not great tea leaves for the lesbian period drama. Is it perhaps just an "actor's movie" rather than an all around player? It's also bad news for Star Wars' Best Picture hopes. The movie is essentially tailor made for this guild, and the miss here certainly stings. Though the film is dominating the zeitgeist and easily surpassing Avatar's box office record with no signs of showing. The Force Awakens hasn't played by awards season rules so far, and it could still be "too big to ignore" for the Academy.

The Big Short is looking great. It has been scoring across the board and has me thinking it is the real challenger to Spotlight's frontrunner status. The producers have also revived Straight Outta Compton (showing up on a preferential ballot pairs nicely with its SAG ensemble nomination) and Brooklyn (many pundits fretted about the Globes shunning it from their drama category). And is Sicario is emerging as a real threat in the race, despite being a long shot in most major categories? Watch out.

So how does the Oscar race look now? Based on the guilds it's The Big Short vs. Spotlight for Best Picture. With Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian as potential spoilers. Academy Award nominations are announced on January 14th and voting is underway. Expect campaigns to be in high gear this week. "What a lovely day".

First Tony Administration Meeting for 2016 Awards!

The Tony Administration Committee met for the first time this season on November 12th. They discussed eligibility for the 2015/2016 season, as it pertained to the following productions: An Act of God, Amazing Grace, Hamilton, Spring Awakening, Old Times, Fool for Love, The Gin Game, Sylvia, Dames at Sea, and Therese Raquin.

The following determinations were made:

Lin Manuel Miranda, Leslie Odom Jr., and Phillipa Soo will all be considered eligible under Best Lead Actor/Actress in a Musical for their respective performances in Hamilton.

Austin P. Mackenzie and Sandra Mae Frank will be considered eligible under Best Lead Actor/Actress in a Musical for their respective performances in Spring Awakening. (Note: Frank portrays Wendla, while Katie Boeck provides her singing voice).

Dane Laffrey and Lucy Mackinnon will be considered jointly eligible for Best Scenic Design of a Musical for Spring Awakening. Laffrey is credited as Scenic Designer while Mackinnon is Projections Designer.

Sam Rockwell and Nina Arianda will be considered eligible under Best Lead Actor/Actress in a Play for their respective performances in Fool for Love (it is standard practice for MTC to bill all of their actors below the title in alphabetical order).

Robert Sella and Julie White will be considered eligible under Best Featured Actor/Actress for their respective performances in Sylvia.

Cary Tedder and Eloise Kropp will be considered eligible under Best Lead Actor/Actress in a Musical for their respective performances in Dames at Sea.

Gabriel Ebert and Judith Light will be considered eligible under Best Featured Actor/Actress for their respective performances in Therese Raquin.

No special distinction was made regarding Therese Raquin's prior incarnations, so this new adaptation is eligible under Best Play per Tony Awards rules.

All other eligibility rulings were consistent with opening night billing.


The biggest ruling outcomes center around Hamilton and Spring Awakening. For the latter, there was some speculation over joint nominations for characters portrayed by both a hearing and non-hearing actor (namely, Wendla and Moritz). But per the Tony rulings, each actor will be eligible separately.

As for Hamilton, I always assumed Odom Jr. would fall under lead. It is actually for the show's benefit, since they now have an additional spot open for the talented featured cast. For those of you worrying about the talented Mr. Odom Jr.'s chances: I think he can handily take down his co-star Miranda (they have two other opportunities to reward him in Score and Book). It's Danny Burstein who will pose the real threat for Best Actor.