For your convenience, and office pool assistance, I have broken down each category into who will, could, and should win Broadway's highest honor. Note: I've stuck with the actual nominees for my "should win" citations. But stay tuned for this years edition of The Sammys where I right the wrongs of the Tonys and nominate/award whoever I please. There will be justice for Side Show and Honeymoon in Vegas. The North remembers...or at least I do.
Here's your fearless final Tony predictions. As always, I invite you to tell me how foolish I am. And remember to click over to the individual Contenders pages for rankings and further thoughts.
BEST MUSICAL
Will Win: Fun Home
Could Win: An American in Paris
Should Win: Fun Home
Big commercial show vs. the intimate artistic achievement. Fun Home is just plain better (sorry I'm not sorry) but Paris has built a huge swell of support. Tesori and Kron have changed the landscape of what types of stories can be told in a Broadway musical and they deserve to take home the award. I'm praying that Tony voters are savvy enough to repeat last year's pattern and realize that we need to endorse this type of creative achievement.
BEST PLAY
Will Win: Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Could Win: Hand to God
Should Win: Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
This is a lock. Hand to God or Wolf Hall could win in another year, but the ingenious adaptation from across the pond is too well done and too well liked to fail. Hand to God smartly marketed themselves as the American alternative, but it won't be enough for a win.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: The King and I
Could Win: On the Town
Should Win: On the Town
Any of the three nominees would make a worthy winner. On the 20th Century was hysterical and vibrant. On the Town has actually stayed with me the most thanks to its winning performances. It would also be a chance to reward the only "for profit" nominee. But the grand scope of The King and I will be too much to ignore.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Will Win: Skylight
Could Win: The Elephant Man
Should Win: You Can't Take it With You
Does Skylight win by default of being the only nominee still open? Not so fast. You Can't Take it With You also scored a director nod, and had very healthy run. The Elephant Man may pose more of a threat given the sheer number of producers (read: voters) involved. It also helps that it's back on the radar thanks to its London transfer. But Skylight has an air of "importance" and sophistication around it...and it's still here.
BEST SCORE
Will Win: Fun Home
Could Win: The Last Ship
Should Win: Fun Home
Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron should handily win this for the best new score of the season. There is a slight possibility that voters will feel bad for Sting and want to reward the artist for the passion and hard work he put in to his show, only to see it scuttled.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: Fun Home
Could Win: Something Rotten!
Should Win: Fun Home
Points must be rewarded for creating something out of nothing, and Something Rotten! nails its intended goals. Comedic books also tend to do well here. But Lisa Kron should pick up an additional Tony for the moving and heart-wrenching Fun Home.
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Will Win: Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Could Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
Should Win: Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!
One of the toughest races to predict. Support seems to be uniting behind ballet star turned Broadway leading man Robert Fairchild. He won the Drama Desk and OCC. He beat out Broadway vet d'Arcy James in those races, but industry favorite Michael Cerveris wasn't eligible. Cerveris turns in a remarkably nuanced performance, but he might make it look to easy. Fairchild is as charming as they come so I give him the slight edge. It's anyone's game.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Will Win: Kristin Chenoweth, On the 20th Century
Could Win: Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Should Win: Tie Please?
The race between Kelly and Kristin sparks some of the most fiery debates of the year in theatre circles. But I don't think voters sit with ballots and think "well, she's been nominated so many times...". They see everything and vote for what grabs them. Chenoweth has a role that utilizes all of her skills and prowess. It might be the role of her lifetime, so I think Kelli will sadly have to play bridesmaid again.
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Will Win: Alex Sharp, Curious Incident
Could Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God
Should Win: ...A Tie Again?
Seems like a lock for Mr. Sharp despite Boyer's stunning work. If they want to spread the wealth, this is the one category they can give to Hand to God. Not likely though, as Bradley Cooper is also there to siphon votes from the stargazers.
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Will Win: Helen Mirren, The Audience
Could Win: LOL
Should Win: Ruth Wilson, Constellations
Do I need to convince you on this one? It's Helen. #bowdown
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Will Win: Andy Karl, On the 20th Century
Could Win: Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
Should Win: Andy Karl, On the 20th Century
Brad Oscar has the standing O's, but Borle has the awards support (and Drama Desk win). The industry loves Christian Borle and he could be the one win for Something Rotten! But many will be tempted to reward Andy Karl, another beloved New York actor. And he shows tremendous contrast from his nominated dramatic performance last year.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Could Win: Sydney Lucas, Fun Home -or- Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Should Win: Sydney Lucas, Fun Home
A tough one to call. Logic would say that Broadway veteran Judy Kuhn will finally win for her quietly devastating performance (her dedicated Times article will help), but her co-star Sydney Lucas is just so damn good. And Lucas' song "Ring of Keys" is poignant, catchy, and complex. Ruthie Ann Miles could be the benefactor of vote splitting, but I have a hard time imaging Fun Home losing this category.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Will Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Could Win: Richard McCabe, The Audience -or- Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man
Should Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Days away from the Tonys and still no one has a damn clue about this category. K. Todd Freeman surprised at the Drama Desk...but he was the only Tony nominee in contention. Micah Stock still has buzz, but will find it hard to win as the sole nominee of his show. So the Olivier winners Nathaniel Parker and Richard McCabe and "lead-hiding-in-featured" Alessandro Nivola, will battle it out for the win. Go with God, or the Kabbalah Monster, or whoever on this one.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Will Win: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take it With You
Could Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall
Should Win: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take it With You
If you were thinking that the closing of You Can't Take it With You would hurt Ms. Ashford's chances, she just gave a great showing at the Drama Desk ceremony which reminded everyone why it is time to finally reward this sought after, hard working actress. Lydia Leonard and Patricia Clarkson will provide compelling alternatives, but Ashford's chances look better every day.
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Could Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Should Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Will they think Wheeldon needs two Tonys? I'm more inclined to think Sam Gold takes it for expertly utilizing the unique space of the Circle in the Square. Fun Home fans were concerned about losing magic in the re-staging for the round, when in fact the show got more magical.
BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Will Win: Marianne Elliott, Curious Incident
Could Win: It's Hers
Should Win: Marianne Elliott, Curious Incident
Scott Ellis could be remembered, Jeremy Herrin admired, and Stephen Daldry saluted. But Ms. Elliott should handily beat them all for creating spectacle with substance in her Best Play juggernaut.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Will Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Could Win: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town
Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
How wonderful would it be if Bergasse and Wheeldon could tie in this category? It's a shame they have to compete. Bergasse is the likely runner-up given the massive surge of support for An American in Paris. It's Wheeldon's to lose.
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Will Win: An American in Paris
Could Win: Fun Home
Should Win: Fun Home
An American in Paris sounds grand and lush, and that will tip the scales in its favor. This is the category most voters know the least about, so I don't think they will appreciate Fun Home's intimate and haunting assemblage enough for it to win.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: An American in Paris
Could Win: The King and I
Should Win: An American in Paris
The King and I would be a worthy choice (that boat!), and it has a shot. But An American in Paris is the prettiest show of the year. The romantic Paris setting will seal the deal.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will Win: Curious Incident
Could Win: Wolf Hall
Should Win: Curious Incident
There's a ton of striking designs in this category, but Bunny Christie's set is so integral to the storytelling of Curious Incident it couldn't possibly lose. The team behind expertly designed Wolf Hall is cursing the gods for opening against this juggernaut.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: The King and I
Could Win: An American in Paris
Should Win: The King and I
The King and I will get revenge on the Paris design team's coup with Catherine Zuber's gorgeous costumes. It's hard to ignore that sweeping ballgown. Or the fact that she designed for a cast of 50.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will Win: Wolf Hall
Could Win: The Audience
Should Win: Wolf Hall
Christopher Oram is probably super grateful that Curious Incident isn't a period piece. The sheer amount of costumes he created for Wolf Hall is impressive enough, but the detail is astounding. The Audience has an impressive costume showcase as well. Given the costumes' importance to the Queen's aging (and all of Helen's quick changes), it won't go down without a fight.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will Win: An American in Paris
Could Win: The Visit
Should Win: The Visit
Well, The Visit should win by a landslide for Japhy Weideman's evocative, moody work. For my money, easily the best of the season. But the freight train to Paris is headed straight for this design category too.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will Win: Curious Incident
Could Win: Wolf Hall
Should Win: Wolf Hall
I actually find the lighting work in Wolf Hall a daring choice, and its use of space and shadow is essential to every scene. But voters won't be able to separate the lighting in Curious Incident from the scenic and projection design, and the play should easily win here.
Sam, we only disagree on two categories! While Skylight was popular with the nominators, I have resigned myself to The Elephant Man winning that category ): (I want You Can't Take It With You). And while Judy Kuhn might win, and I could be wrong about it, I see Sydney Lucas winning. The Tonys don't think in terms of "overdue" but usually only about the performances themselves - and they like young girls in this category (it reminds me of Daisy Eagan vs. Alison Fraser for The Secret Garden in 1991).
ReplyDeleteI hope we are both right about Fun Home winning Best Musical (: Regardless of the winners, it looks like it has the potential to be a particularly great Tony Awards with great numbers and an In Memoriam this year and hopefully some great moments throughout the show. (I just told my friend Steve that the co-hosts were going to be Alan Cumming and Kristin Chenoweth - he paused and said that's an unusual pairing!) (;
True, Tonys may not think in terms of who is overdue. BUT I would wager most of the voters were either Broadway fans or voters in the 1980s. And if anyone dominated the 80s as a performer it was Judy Kuhn. And despite powerhouse performances in Les Mis and Chess, she never took home a trophy, and hasnt been back on a Broadway stage in many years. She has a lot of fans who are excited to have her back performing on Broadway again and will want to reward her. It is absolutely not a done deal, but I'm leaning towards Kuhn.
ReplyDeleteWe both got 19 out of 24 predictions correct (I switched to Christian Borle at the last minute). We agreed in our predictions almost completely; you got Skylight and I got Borle - we were both wrong about a Fun Home actress winning, which was truly the only really huge disappointment of the night for me. I wanted at least one of the two (Kuhn or Lucas) to win it. You didn't even nominate Ruthie Ann Miles in your Sammys (you preferred Ashley Park). While I didn't care for The King and I the way others did, feeling it was misdirected and went against the text, I can't be unhappy with Kelli O'Hara's win. I felt she performed the role as if she were in the late 20th or 21st century, rather than a conflicted 19th century woman as the role is written and meant to be performed. (I also didn't care for the alleged chemistry between her and Ken Watanabe's king).
ReplyDeleteThe show itself was one of the best I have ever seen - thanks to YouTube I have seen every single Tony broadcast! Last night was right up there with 1971 and 1980 for the best ever telecasts! (I could have lived without the number from Finding Neverland; I didn't mind Lisa Howard's showstopper the way others did. Otherwise, I enjoyed the medleys and the production selections. The camera person made a few small errors but it's live television and I still think overall it was wonderful!)
So many great acceptance speeches! Loved Alex Sharp, Michael Cerveris, the Fun Home producer, Annaleigh Ashford (the second time someone I have met won a Tony! The first was Robert Sean Leonard, who I was friends with a very long time ago!), Richard McCabe, Sam Gold, Marianne Elliott. I was so mad during Ruthie Ann Miles acceptance speech I stopped listening to her! (That win HURT!) I enjoyed Kristin and Alan's hosting immensely - short bits, hooray! Funny bits, hooray! Participation in musical numbers, hooray! Also: loved the graphics behind the winners, the changing pictures behind the presenters, the great way they did the Best Play category, the In Memoriam section was superb (but James Garner? huh? He never did theatre).
Hamilton next year! (: And another performer I've met in real life: Renee Elise Goldsberry!
Oh, I forgot: Dame Helen Mirren's acceptance speech was terrific too! She now has the TOE (Tony Oscar Emmy - five Emmys). I predicted 9 out of 10 play categories, getting Richard McCabe's win wrong (I thought Nathaniel Parker would win, and I was rooting for Micah Stock).
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