Tony voting closes on Friday June 6th. I'm publishing this two days early because I'm leaving town tomorrow so I doubt I will be able to do a big update on the 6th. Its been an interesting Tony season. Some races have cleared up with a definite favorite. Some races have tightened in competition. And some still remain anyone's guess. Below are my final rankings and thoughts to help you with your Tony pool.
Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
3.) Aladdin
4.) After Midnight
A Gentleman's Guide had this in the bag when nominations came out. But that was before team Beautiful stepped up their game. The Carole King musical has had a sudden ground swell of support. Everyone seems to leave the theatre in a joyous mood thanks to the catchy familiar songs, and it has ignited passion among many a voter. They have launched a strong Tony campaign and closed the gap on Guide considerably. Although some tony-ologists have switched over to proclaim it the winner, citing similarities to Jersey Boys' win over Drowsy Chaperone, I still think the Gilbert and Sullivan esque comedy has it. Gentleman's Guide has won every major precursor thus far (OCC, Drama League, Drama Desk). For comparison: Droswy Chaperone only took the Drama Desk. I also cant see Tony voters turning their back on the sole original work of the group, especially considering backlash after not using a fifth slot to honor any of the other struggling original musicals of the season. Yes, Beautiful has great tour potential. But Ms. King's name will let it thrive on tour with or without the win. Gentleman's Guide needs the stamp of "Tony Winner" to do well on tour, so why wouldnt tour producers want TWO great touring shows on their hands?
Best Play
1.) All the Way
2.) Casa Valentina
3.) Act One
4.) Mothers and Sons
5.) Outside Mullingar
Somehow, All the Way received just 2 nominations, and will probably walk away with both categories. The play has dominated the precursors even when up against formidable Off-Broadway scripts that were met with more critical acclaim. In a season where none of these works has inspired the masses, this political drama has the gravitas and importance of a winner. The only show that has a chance to overtake it is Casa Valentina. Broadway's love for Harvey Fierstein should never be underestimated. However, Harvey has been playing it a little more low-key on the campaign trail this year (compared to last years Kinky Boots assault). Thanks to Cranston, All the Way has been the hit play of the season and its going to be rewarded on Sunday.
Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables
Hedwig is one of the surest wins of the night. Its one of the biggest theatrical events of the year. Violet will have some fans who appreciate the subtleties of the production, but nothing is going to stop the speeding Hedwig freight train to Tony success.
Best Revival of a Play
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
4.) A Raisin in the Sun
This one is a coin toss between the two closed productions. And after thinking the Williams drama had it for so long, I'm making a last minute switch to the Bard. Like Hedwig, Twelfth Night took on the feeling of an "event". And there are categories I can see Twelfth Night as a lock for winning, whereas Glass Menagerie doesn't have a solid lock anymore. Twelfth Night was fun, accessible, and helped feed into our British cultural inferiority complex. Glass Menagerie is still in the running. John Tiffany deserves much acclaim for presenting the play in ways we (at least I) have never seen done before. It was not an academic exercise in socio-political themes of the times, but a beautiful memory play that focused on the relationships between the characters. Either production would be a worthy winner, but Ill go with the production that was open for longer, and seemed "bigger": Twelfth Night.
Best Director of a Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Darko Tresnjak)
2.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch (Michael Mayer)
3.) After Midnight (Warren Carlyle)
4.) Violet (Leigh Silverman)
Ah the directing awards. We have an intense battle here between the Best Musical and Musical Revival helmers. I'm sticking with Darko on this one, but not confidently. Gentleman's Guide has so many moving parts, such a specific tone, and excellent pacing that I think bodes well for his chances. But Hedwig's Michael Mayer has pulled off equally stunning work with this revival. I mean, how does one go about setting such an intimate "indie" show in a big Broadway house? He made it not only work, but sing. I think some voters will look at Hedwig as Neil Patrick Harris' success which may pave the way for the more obvious directorial effort of Gentleman's Guide.
Best Director of a Play
1.) Twelfth Night (Tim Carroll)
2.) The Glass Menagerie (John Tiffany)
3.) The Cripple of Inishmaan (Michael Grandage)
4.) A Raisin in the Sun (Kenny Leon)
Here again we have the same to shows fighting it out for the win. The OCC's had a director/play split when Tim Carroll took directing and Glass Menagerie took Best Revival. While that could very well repeat itself at the Tonys, but I think Twelfth Night stands a good chance at taking both awards. Tim Carroll has taken the lion-share of precursor awards. Many voters will be drawn to the unique stamp John Tiffany was able to put on The Glass Menagerie, and rightly so. But it seems the wild comic genius that was Twelfth Night is standing out more in people's minds. It was expertly crafted in the classic performance style of Shakespeare, and that factor may go a long way for Carroll.
Best Actor in a Pay
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
3.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
4.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
5.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Bryan Cranston. Do I need to say more? One of the biggest locks of the night. Tony Shalhoub is likely in second for his mesmerizing George Kaufman, but it is a distant second place.
Best Actress in a Play
1.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
3.) LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn
Audra is giving a performance like no other, and if there wasn't some perceived hesitancy about her breaking the all time Tony record and being the first performer to win in all acting categories, we would be having a discussion about who the winner will be. If voters think its too early in her career for such a landmark victory, they may likely go to the other theatre legend in the group: Cherry Jones. Though I would say the person who has been campaigning the most is Jackson. She has the best narrative of the bunch (taking over for Diahann Carroll three weeks into rehearsal and having no time to prepare, yet giving a stunning performance regardless) and sometimes a good narrative helps. Though her many appearances and interviews still may not be enough to topple Audra's complete transformation into Billie.
Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Andy Karl, Rocky
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
5.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
It seems this race is closer than I previously thought. Harris and Mays just tied for the Drama Desk, Mays took the OCC, and Harris got the prestigious Drama League. Clearly people love Mays' madcap antics while adorning multiple doomed characters. But NPH has revitalized not only the Tonys, but the Broadway scene in generally over the past several years. He is loved by everyone in the community and his energetic one man show (with no understudy) is hard to argue with. Its closer than we thought, but Im still sticking with Hedwig. If those two should somehow cancel each other out, Andy Karl would reap the benefits. He has been campaigning a ton and voters will appreciate his physical transformation (and the real punches he takes), but its unlikely he can claim victory here.
Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
2.) Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Mary Bridget Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
Is Kelli going to be a bridesmaid yet again? She seems to really want this one, making every appearance possible whether its performing or interviewing, to keep herself (and the show) in voters minds. And if Jessie Mueller wasn't around this year, Id say O'Hara could finally land a slam dunk win. But Mueller has the aura of the new "it girl" around town. She gives an astonishing performance as Carole King, her show is still open, and she has not stopped working since making her Broadway debut. A hot commodity in a well liked show is hard to beat. I'll be thrilled for Kelli O'Hara if she finally hears her name called, but I'm sticking with Mueller on this one.
Best Score
1.) The Bridges of Madison County (Jason Robert Brown)
2.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Steven Lutvak & Robert L Freeman)
3.) Aladdin (Alan Menken, Howard Ashman, Tim Rice, & Chad Beguelin)
4.) If/Then (Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey)
Yes, Bridges of Madison County is closed. Yes, I'm going out on a limb here. But Jason Robert Brown has a lot of support in the community and there is a sense to do right by him. That the Tony nominators "wronged" his show and doomed it to close. He also did create the best music this season. If this award was split into music and lyrics categories it would be simple to call. A Gentleman's Guide certainly has the best lyric work. But are people as in love with the score overall? I dont think the majority of songs stay in your mind after leaving the show the way they do with Bridges. So I'm giving JRB the edge here.
Best Book
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Robert L. Freedman)
2.) Beautiful (Douglas McGrath)
3.) Aladdin (Chad Beguelin)
4.) Bullets Over Broadway (Woody Allen)
There may be a battle for score, but Book is all sewn up. It would be very surprising if anyone other than Gentleman's Guide took this category. If the surge for Beautiful is strong enough to make voters start checking off boxes, then they could have a chance here. But in terms of writing craft and sheer wit, it doesn't compare to GGLAM.
Best Choreography
1.) After Midnight (Warren Carlyle)
2.) Bullets Over Broadway (Susan Stroman)
3.) Rocky (Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine)
4.) Aladdin (Casey Nicholaw)
After Midnight has the benefit of half the show being centered on dance. The choreography is given the full spotlight here and its excellently put together. Susan Stroman will always be formidable in the category, and the energetic dance numbers are the best part of Bullets Over Broadway. Rocky offers a very unique moment with the end fight scene, but may not rack up enough votes for a win since its not choreography in the "traditional" sense. Expect Warren Carlyle to win his first Tony for this well liked best musical nominee.
Best Orchestrations
1.) The Bridges of Madison County (Jason Robert Brown)
2.) Beautiful (Steve Sidwell)
3.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Jonathan Tunik)
4.) Bullets Over Broadway (Doug Besterman)
I dont really know what is going to happen here. Is it crazy of me to think Jason Robert Brown can take home two awards for a closed show? Probably. Im certain Bullets Over Broadway wont win, but any of the other 3 could. Beautiful and Gentleman's Guide have best musical nominations in their corners. But I think the inventiveness and unique sound of Bridges will push it over the top.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night
The Tony voters seem to have a kind of fetish for Mark Rylance. See: his double nomination this year. While he is likely to lose the lead race, he should be able to take the featured actor prize. Brian J. smith and Reed Birney are two enticing alternatives: the younger star of the moment and the older theatre veteran. Both of them have claimed precursor prizes and (Smith especially) have been making the campaign rounds. But Rylance is the rare actor who doesnt need to campaign. If he had just one challenger (instead of votes being split among two of them) then perhaps one of the other gentlemen would overtake him. As it stands, he will likely claim his third victory.
Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
3.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
One of the toughest races of the night to call. I'm going with my original choice and recent Drama Desk winner Celia Keenan-Bolger. On her third nomination, this beloved Broadway mainstay gives us her best work to date, in a show considered outside her comfort zone. Hot on her heels is OCC winner (tied with Andrea Martin) Mare Winningham who gives a sublime nuanced performance in Casa Valentina. She may be the most sympathetic character of the play, but I wonder if it is too subtle a role to pull of a win here. Many pundits are looking to the ladies of A Raisin in the Sun to manage a win...the problem is: which one? Rose was the critical darling upon opening, but Okonedo has risen in the ranks garnering more precursor nominations. Unlike other shows with double (or triple) nominations in a category, I don't think support has united behind one of them. Furthermore, if voters go for Audra McDonald and Mark Rylance, this category is the only place they'd have to reward an actor from the well like Glass Menagerie.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful
This one has been locked up since audiences first saw "Friend Like Me" on opening night. They could basically re-title the musical to "Genie". Iglehart is a tour de force that steals the entire show. Danny Burstein has his supporters, but will likely have to join Kelli O'Hara in the bridesmaids club yet again. Nick Cordero has won over many audiences, but the passion for his show doesn't seem to be there. Prepare your speech James!
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
3.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
4.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
5.) Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Remember when I said featured actress in a play was one of the toughest calls of the night? This one is worse. Precursors have provided essentially zilch in this race as far as clarity is concerned. The only one I can count out is Adriane Lenox (but she already has a Tony so don't feel too bad for her). Worsham and Larsen recently tied at the Drama Desks, which bodes well for my original pick of Lauren Worsham. Linda Emond has a tremendous amount of respect in the community. And Anika Larsen's showing in the precursors is pretty impressive for a show all about Jessie Mueller. If her name is called on Sunday night it will definitely be a sign of a Beautiful surge. But I think the race is still between Worsham and Hall. The producers have been doing right by her and snagging a bunch of interviews and articles to elevate her presence. And I was thinking she would clinch the award, as crazy as it sounds for an actor not playing Hedwig to win something for being in Hedwig. But I have the feeling that her press and campaigning peaked a little earlier. So I'm sticking with my crazy assertion that Lauren Worsham is winning this category. But, go with whoever you feel. Read tea leaves, ask the gods. Because if someone tells you with certainty they know how this category is going to go down: they're full of shit.
Best Scenic Design of a Play
1.) Act One
2.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Machinal
4.) The Glass Menagerie
The gargantuan three story, spinning set from Beowulf Borritt is going to easily seal the deal here. The other three are very impressive in design which leaves me unsure of how to rank them, but they're fighting for second place. Had Machinal been blessed with a longer run it could probably have won here.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) A Gentleman's guide to Love and Murder
3.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
4.) Bullets Over Broadway
From a production value standpoint, Rocky is really the marvel of the season. The effects and moving boxing ring that come into play for the climactic fight are likely going to be rewarded here. Gentleman's Guide is elegant and effective, Hedwig's design is very clever, Bullets is lush and grand. But Rocky gets points for being original.
Best Lighting Design of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) Machinal
3.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
4.) Of Mice and Men
The gorgeous lighting in The Glass Menagerie was paramount in creating the dream-like landscape. Cripple of Inishmaan is the "still-open" production with the best shot at winning here, but it the production hasn't ignited much passion with other awards bodies and there seems to be a relative lack of campaigning fromt hat camp. Again, Machinal would put up more of a fight had it stayed open longer.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Rocky
3.) The Bridges of Madison County
4.) After Midnight
It is slightly scary to bet against rocky in a tech category, but I'm doing it. There are some stunning uses of lighting in Hedwig, from the powerful moment of darkness illuminated by a single green spot effect, to the "scrim job", to the chaotic strobe finale. Rocky is very much in the running still, but I think voters may be more taken with the set.
Best Costume Design of a Play
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) Casa Valentina
3.) Act One
4.) Machinal
One thing is for certain: the winner of this category will be for costuming men as women. Both Twelfth Night and Casa Valentina showcase impressive attention to detail. I think the more elaborate period work of Twelfth Night will allow it to sneak by the hetero cross dressers.
Best Costume Design of a Musical
1.) After Midnight
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
3.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
4.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
This one is a bit of a puzzle. Will they let Bullets costume designer William Ivey Long win back to back awards? Considering his position and clout, they just might. He already picked up the Drama Desk and OCC. But the Tonys seem less smitten with Bullets Over Broadway in general. If they want to mix it up this year, After Midnight is most likely where the votes will land. Isabel Toledo does a wonderful job creating rich and vibrant pieces. And given the bare bones nature of this revue, the costumes are allowed to take center stage and pull focus. Hedwig has some wonderful work, but only two characters to dress, which could hurt it overall. On the flipside, Gentleman's Guide has its sheer overwhelming number of outfits on its side. That also means they may not stand out as well as what Toledo or Long have on display.
Best Sound Design of a Play
1.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Machinal
3.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
4.) Act One
Perhaps it isn't fair, but the music involved in Lady Day gives it a huge leg up in this race. Not only must they design for music (including a standing microphone and body mic for Audra), but they also had to do design for Circle in the Square who's unique seating setup poses many special sound challenges. As for its challengers, Ill say it for a third time: Machinal could have won here had it been open for more than a hot second. Too bad Roundabout, you could have had the juggernaut of the tech awards. There's just no way enough out of town voters saw a show that only was around for 52 performances. Lady Day goes 2 for 2.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Beautiful
3.) After Midnight
4.) Les Miserables
Hedwig poses the challenge of presenting rock music inside a Broadway house. With the band on stage, no less. I think that will be enough to boost the German rocker over the top. Though watch out for Beautiful which has accrued strong support and also boasts some onstage instruments. In an award where many voters likely dont know the ins and outs of the craft behind the work, they will probably tic off whichever show they liked best.
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