Nominations Morning

Well I did alright, but like usual, the Tonys threw a few curve balls.

*I didnt think they would take 2 out of 4 Best Musical slots for shows without an original score. So we have the frontrunner Gentleman's Guide, a revue, a jukebox musical, and Disney's fun but very corporate made/on brand/middle-of-the-road feeling vehicle. Beautiful would have been my fifth but I thought they would look to Bridges of Madison County as a musical with a brilliant original score to fill a slot. Guess I was wrong. Though this really should have been the category with five nominees...

*Which brings me to Best Play. Seriously? In such a weak year there is no need for 5 of these to get kudos, but it speaks to the lack of consensus the nominators had, given that nothing particularly stuck out. Im baffled that Act One is the most nominated of the new works, though I cant begrudge Shalhoub who is doing marvelous work in the play. I still think (or at least hope) Harvey's Tony savvy will allow him to propel Casa Valentina victory. In a group where none are perfect, it is at least the one that will engage you and make you think.

*There were some great performances Im glad got remembered. In no particular order: Mary Bridget Davies, Paul Chahidi, Samuel Barnett, Lauren Worsham, Jarrod Spector, and Lena Hall. All of them were definitely "on the bubble" and Im glad they managed a spot.

*And performers who were overlooked (my god was lead actor in a play a massacre or what? It was like Red Wedding: The Play). Again in no particular order: Zachary Quinto, Denzel Washington, Ian McKellen, Daniel Radcliffe, Lisa O'Hare, Gabriel Ebert, Rebecca Hall, and the gorgeous, please-belt-in-my-face-all-day Steven Pasquale. If Bridges of Madison County decides they have to post a closing notice, he is welcome to come sing the score in my room to my every night... moving on..

*The best Director of a Play category is made up entirely of helmers of revivals. Further sending a message of the lacking quality of the new works. I thought Joe Mantello, forever present at the Tonys, would manage a nom over Grandage, but these four are a pretty solid group. And over in best Director of a Musical Im pleased that Leigh Silverman made the cut in such a male dominated year.  I feel like I was the only person for a while who considered her in there and glad I made that call.

*Im glad Machinal got remembered even if its solely in "below the line" categories. I really wish Roundabout wouldn't do such short runs, since a great many people didn't get to see it. It may be harder to sell for a long period of time, but I think it would be doable (better marquee and poster design would be a start...)

*Did ANYONE predict Stephen Fry getting a featured actor nomination? I really didnt hear any buzz about him at all, and chatter was low compared to his fellow cast members. And he managed to likely take that last slot from a Casa Valentina or All the Way actor to become the third Twelfth Night performer nominated in the featured category. Pretty impressive morning overall for Twelfth Night. Shakespeare doesn't tend do well at the Tonys, but this year seems poised to change that now. I thought Menagerie had revival in the bag but I think the two are neck and neck at this point.

Ill rank the top 4 categories as I see them now. Full predictions coming soon.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) Beautiful

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) Mothers and Sons
5.) Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables

Best Play Revival
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

Final Predictions

Ok. Here we go. Every category. My no guts, no glory predictions of who is in.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) The Bridges of Madison County
spoilers: Beautiful, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Mothers and Sons
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoiler: Act One

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables
spoiler: Cabaret

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) Twelfth Night
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Of Mice and Men, Waiting for Godot

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: Andy Karl, Rocky

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
2.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
spoiler: Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
4.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
5.) Daniel Radcliffe, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie & Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
              & Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
spoilers: Estelle Parsons, Velocity of Autumn & Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses

Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
spoilers: Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men & Patrick Page, Casa Valentina

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Anika Noni-Rose, Of Mice and Men
3.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
4.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Andrea Martin, Act One & Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful
spoiler: James Snyder, If/Then & Brooks Ashmanskas, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Adrianne Lenox, After Midnight
2.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
spoilers: Lena Hall, Hedwig & Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide
(this was the hardest to call for me, not really confident about anything here)

Best Director of a Play
1.) John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night
3.) Joe Mantello, Casa Valentina
4.) Bill Rauch, All the Way
spoilers: Anna D. Shapiro, Of Mice and Men & Sam Gold, The Realistic Joneses

Best Director of a Musical
1.) Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angy Inch
3.) Warren Carlyle, After Midnight
4.) Leigh Silverman, Violet
spoilers: Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway & Michael Grief, If/Then

Best Score
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Bridges of Madison County
3.) If/Then
4.) Aladdin
spoiler: Rocky & Big Fish

Best Book
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Aladdin
3.) Beautiful
4.) Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: If/Then  & Rocky

Best Orchestrations
1.) After Midnight
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Beautiful
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Hedwig and the Angry Inch & Les Miserables

Best Choreography
1.) After Midnight
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
4.) Rocky
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide... & Big Fish

Best Costumes Design - Play
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) Act One
3.) Casa Valentina
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Cripple of Inishmaan & Of Mice and Men

Best Costume Design - Musical
1.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
3.) After Midnight
4.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide...

Best Scenic Design - Play
1.) Act One
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) No Man's Land
4.) Mothers and Sons
spoilers: Twelfth Night & The Snow Geese

Best Scenic Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Aladdin
spoilers: A Gentleman's Guide... & If/Then

Best Lighting Design - Play
1.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Act One
3.) The Realistic Joneses
4.) Machinal
spoilers: The Glass Menagerie

Best Lighting Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Aladdin

Best Sound Design - Play
1.) Machinal
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Casa Valentina

Best Sound Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) The Bridges of Madison County
4.) Beautiful
spoilers: Bullets Over Broadway

Another Look at the Big Four

Now that more shows have opened (every show eligible is at least in previews) I wanted to take a look at how the big four races have shifted.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
3.) After Midnight
4.) If/Then
spoilers
5.) Beautiful
6.) The Bridges of Madison County
7.) Aladdin
long shots
8.) Rocky
9.) Big Fish

Based on its creative team and subject matter (and spring opening), Bullets Over Broadway was the assumed frontrunner even before people saw it.  But reviews have come out and it has sharply divided critics. Perhaps more so than any show this season. Ben Brantley among many others, raked it over the coals while it received sterling reviews from the likes of the Associated Press, EW, and TimeOut.  The other kids on the block who all previously wondered if they were endangered have smelled blood in the water and have gone full throttle with campaigning. Id say Gentleman's Guide is now the one to beat (and are proudly touting their best reviewed musical of the season status). Slots 3 and 4 could really go toward any of the top 7.  After Midnight has seen a drop in attendance and voters may want to assist this well liked show, even if it is a revue. My gut says enough voters will want to reward If/Then for its originality despite a lukewarm response. But Beautiful and Bridges are nipping at its heels and could easily get the last slot instead.

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) Mothers and Sons
3.) All the Way
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoilers
5.) Act One
6.) Outside Mullingar
long shots
7.) The Velocity of Autumn

A fairly weak year for new plays makes the category hard to call. But it seems like Harvey's to loose at this point. Casa Valentina is his first new play in a long while and he provides ample opportunities for the outstanding ensemble cast to shine. The Tonys love men in dressed as women! Fierstein hasnt won best play since Torch Song Trilogy and he knows just how to play the Tony game. Mothers and Sons has divided critics though it has positive feedback from audiences. All the Way is a mixed bag, but in this weak year, expect the power of Bryan Cranston (and its big box office) to elevate it to the top category. The fourth slot is the wild card. Act One disappoints and bores and will only show up if voters feel obligated to vote for Moss Harts memory and/or James Lapine. Outside Mullingar was well received but came and went quickly.  Which leaves Will Eno's post-absurdist comedy which will likely have as many fans as it will haters in the nominating body.

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Violet
spoilers
4.) Cabaret

Les Mis opened with an impressive advance in sales, and impressive reviews. It seems no one will ever tire of this sweeping epic even only a short while after a film adaptation. It will receive many nominations, but will the voters really want to give it another trophy when there are new things to reward? Violet is performing well in its streamlines, one-act approach. I expect it to divide critics but there's certainly enough to love to warrant a nomination, but I dont think it'll be enough to win. And then there is Hedwig. The show that is becoming the event of the season. No other show is getting audiences roaring, clapping, cheering, singing along as much as this one. Its thrilling to watch and expertly put together. The big question is: Cabaret, will they or wont they? They arent required to nominate more than 3 productions if less than six shows qualify. And this is an identical mounting. If it is nominated, itll have to settle for fourth place.

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Twelfth Night
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
5.) Of Mice and Men
6.) Waiting for Godot
7.) No Man's Land
8.) Machinal
long shots
9.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
10.) Richard III
11.) The Winslow Boy

Speaking of that new "number of nominees rules", if any category is expanded to 5, it'll be this one. There's so much quality here, I wish I could easily tell you who would be the final nominees with any form of certainty, but there's too much to choose from. I feel relatively confident at my top three here. Glass Menagerie is poised to be this years "Virginia Woolf" and should perform well despite its early bow. A Raisin in the Sun has proved those skeptical about  the ages of its stars wrong.  Kenny Leon has a great track record with the Tonys and will continue it with this production. And while Shakespeare has had a hard time at the Tonys, Twelfth Night got such unanimous praise, even by those who normally cant sit still for good ole Bill, I cant imagine it not showing up here. The revival which got a ton of  press due to its stars may get shut out. I'm talking about the rep productions of Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  The reviews weren't as good as the Shakespeare double bill, and unlike Rylance and Co., both plays were performed 4 times a week (Twelfth Night got 6, Richard III 2). So do the voters unite around Beckett or Pinter? I'm guessing the split here will allow either Cripple of Inishmaan or Of Mice and Men to slip past them, claiming the last spot. I favor the former.  Americans' cultural inferiority complex to the Brits may win out over the star-bating Hollywood casting of Mr Steinbeck's work. Machinal's limited run may knock it out of this extremely competitive field. And I think Lady Day will be seen as a triumph for Audra rather than for its script or overall production.


Thoughts? Comments? Disagreements? Corrections? Let me know!