Nominations for the 2018 Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning. How we have gotten to this point without a crystal clear frontrunner as in most years is an incredible mystery. But we need to talk about Three Billboards.
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri claimed SAG Ensemble last night. Couple that with it's previous Golden Globe (Drama) win, and it's a formidable contender for Best Picture. But the problem with emerging as the leader of the pack, is that it paints a giant target on your back. And boy have people been waiting to take this film down. There has been plenty of think pieces about this film, and whether it accurately depicts the climate in middle America, or if it can successfully redeem racist characters, and should it redeem racist characters, and does the movie have a serious problem in the way it depicts (or doesn't depict) black people?
That's a lot of questions to sift through and I'm not here to answer them. But if your're looking at what can win Best Picture, the important takeaway here is: Three Billboards could prove divisive. Divisive films have a heel of a time winning on the preferential ballot. Just ask The Revenant or La La Land. A contingent of voters who hate a nominee can rank it last, or not at all, and sink the films chances in favor a a film that everyone can agree on. A film that everyone has ranked at 1, or 2, or 3.
It makes sense why Three Billboards would be a frontrunner when you know how the Academy works. First and foremost, it's an acting showcase. It's a cast of performers that everyone loves who get to chew the scenery with big memorable sequences. Actors rule the Academy, and they often decide how this thing goes. Second: We are living in a time of cultural division and fire and anger and rage. Whether you agree with the manner in which this movie depicts those things, it taps into an element of this post election America. Complete with Frances McDormand at the center, whose character literally wants to burn the world down. The question becomes, will the Academy voters feed their anger or fear controversy and go with something else?
Well, the tricky part is there are 3 other films they could go with. The Shape of Water is the next obvious choice. It won the PGA (also decided with a preferential ballot) and Critics Choice, and it is highly likely that del Toro takes the DGA. And yet, it failed to make SAG's Ensemble category. They also snubbed Octavia Spencer in Supporting Actress. So I have doubts as to whether the actors will firmly unite behind this one. But it's beautiful, and unique, and has a nice message about acceptance. So it's absolutely possible.
Actors DID nominate Lady Bird and Get Out for Ensemble. And that's why I can't count them out for Best Picture quite yet. Lady Bird not only won the Globe (Comedy), but that entire ceremony was almost a PSA as for why Hollywood should rally behind Greta Gerwig. Powerful women like Natalie Portman are doing Q&A's with her to bolster the film's chances. And in the era of the #metoo movement and our "Year of Women," Lady Bird becomes an obvious choice. Only it doesnt REALLY have a strong message about those things. It's a beautiful film about a young woman finding her way and discovering what is important to her. Plenty of voters have already groaned that they are trying to make too much out of a movie that is created by a woman, but doesnt have a strong female cause at its center.
Then there's Get Out. I'm frankly shocked it didn't win the PGA. A movie that makes 50x its budget and became THE story of the year should have won over a group of producers in a cakewalk. but it didn't. If Three Billboard detractors are split as to which film they should support instead, Get Out might be the hardest for them to back. It's a horror film, and they hardly ever like those. It will probably make the old white voters uncomfortable. There are few categories it can win besides Picture, probably just Original Screenplay. Yet, in a year where so many in Hollywood fretted over the piss poor overall box office, won't they sort of look foolish for NOT giving the most talked about film the Oscar?
Dunkirk, Call me by Your Name, and The Post have been fighting it out, trying to establish some sort of narrative to usurp the above four films. They will all be nominated, but unless the Academy does something truly unexpected with nominations, I can't see any of these taking the top prize.
Time will tell if Three Billboards can hold its frontrunner status or if backlash takes it down. In any case, here are my final Oscar predictions. Full rankings for each category can be found in the "Contenders" section.
Best Picture
1. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. I, Tonya
9. The Big Sick
10. The Florida Project
alternate: Darkest Hour - or- Molly's Game
Director
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Joran Peele, Get Out
alternate: Luca Guadagnino, Call me by Your Name
Lead Actor
1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chamalet, Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
alternate: Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel, Esq.
Lead Actress
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
alternate: Chastain, or Bening, or Dench
Supporting Actor
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
alternate: Woody Harrelson or Michael Stuhlbarg
Supporting Actress
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing
alternate: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Original Screenplay
1. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
2. Jordan Peele, Get Out
3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebiing, Missouri
4. Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
5. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani, The Big Sick
alternate: I, Tonya
Adapted Screenplay
1. James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
2. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
3. Scott Neustadtler and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
4. Dee Rees & Virgil Williams, Mudbound
5. James Mangold & Scott Frank, Logan
alternate: James Gray, The Lost City of ZFilm Editing
1. Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
2. The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinski)
3. Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
4. Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
alternate: Blade Runner 2049 or The Post
Cinematogaphy
1. Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
2. Dunkirk (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
3. The Shape of Water (Dan Lausten)
4. Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
5. Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
alternate: Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
Animated Feature
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. Mary and the Witch's Flower
alternate: Despicable Me 3
Foreign Film
1. In the Fade (Germany)
2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
3. The Square (Sweden)
4. Foxtrot (Israel)
5. Loveless (Russia)
alternate: The Insult (Lebanon)
Documentary Feature
1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. City of Ghosts
4. Icarus
5. Strong Island
alternate: Last Men in Aleppo
Visual Effects
1. War of the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Okja
alternate: The Shape of Water
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