If you need any confirmation as to why it really is too soon to be analyzing who takes home trophies in June, look no further than NERDS: the musical. The Bill Gates/Steve Jobs musical comedy was the most recently announced addition to the season. It was slated to begin previews on April 1st, and open on the last day of Tony eligibility. That is, until the cast had the rug pulled out from under them and producers announced the run was "postponed" (read: canceled). I hadn't heard a great deal about how the show was coming along, but was excited at the prospect of having Rory O'Malley and Lindsay Mendez back on the boards. I hope they find other work fast.
With the cancellation of NERDS and the abrupt shuttering of Forest Whitaker vehicle Hughie after some poisonous word-of-mouth, that leaves two prime Broadway theatres vacant for Tony season. It is technically possible for a show to swoop in at the last minute, but it would already need every element set and ready to go, given the time crunch to open by April 28th. As it stands, odds are the Booth and Longacre will lay dormant for a few months.
So, what WILL be open and racking up those nominations? There's this little show about a founding father, maybe you've heard of it, which my instinct says will take, among other categories, Best Musical. but at the risk of a boring awards season, lets take a look at shows that aren't Hamilton and can actually make a big splash.
Shuffle Along (Or, the musical with the really long subtitle) has the all-star cast and historical significance to become a Broadway hit. It stars Audra McDonald, Brian Stokes Mitchell, Billy Porter, Brandon Victor Dixon, and Joshua Henry. Maybe you've heard of them. Celebrated Broadway performers Brooks Ashmanskas, Amber Iman, and Darius de Haas also fill out the cast. Couple this lineup with direction and book from George C. Wolfe, and choreography by Savion Glover and its safe to say its going to be a hot ticket. The only issue is figuring out where it will compete. Much of the original material from the musical Shuffle Along will be performed, so it does not feature an original score. But the new book, detailing the behind the scenes drama does make it a "new" show. For the time being, I'm including this in the best musical lineup, but don't be surprised if the Tony administration declares it a revival.
In terms of musicals that have already opened, don't expect to see much Tony love for the long forgotten Amazing Grace, or the departed Allegiance, or the frothy spoof Disaster! (no matter how much you love Rachel York and Adam Pascal). The Gloria and Emilio Estefan bio-musical On Your Feet has been packing them in at the Marquis theatre. I think it will be competitive for choreography and well-reviewed newcomer Ana Villafane could be a dark horse best actress contender. but, the musical will ultimately be too light to break into the top race. Possibly faring better is Andrew Lloyd Weber's latest outing, School of Rock. The show has cornered the coveted family demographic and pleasantly surprised critics who mostly to put away their knives and had an great time.
I'm putting myself out on a limb and predicting a good showing for the Sara Bareilles scored Waitress. Based on the film of the same name, it garnered positive word of mouth at its tryout in Boston, and the songs are already racking up plays on Spotify. I expect its all-female creative team and Tony winning star to make a play for some Tony hardware. One should also never count out a Casey Nicholaw musical in the awards race. The man knows how to build a showstopper and Tuck Everlasting could introduce him to a more family-friendly audience. It also provides hardworking actor and blogger Andrew Keenan-Bolger with the best shot of his career thus far at scoring a Tony nomination.
Two other shows on the horizon are Bright Star and American Psycho. The former could win points from its famous composing duo of Steven Martin and Edie Brickell. The bluegrass infused music has the potential to set itself apart from the rest of the contenders. The show also boasts the Broadway debut of powerhouse singer Carmen Cusak who is already getting great publicity and buzz in her leading role. American Psycho has music from Tony winner (and 90s pop guru) Duncan Sheik. The dark nature of the show could prove divisive, so I'm not predicting a nomination in the top category until I see it, but the talented cast (Benjamin Walker, Alice Ripley, Jennifer Damiano, Helene York) will certainly draw interest.
And then we have the revivals. This one is going to get ugly. It has been a tremendous season for this category, as all the contenders are/were truly stellar. Of the five eligible, Dames at Sea is the most likely to be left in the dust due to its early closure and lack of buzz. But after that its anyone's guess. How is one to choose between these awesome productions of The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, and Spring Awakening? There will be three nomination slots unless there is a tie (within 3 votes) for third place. I'm not one to advocate for voter fraud, but I would be perfectly happy if the nominating committee planning out their votes so this scenario plays out. Otherwise, something truly worthy will get left off the list no matter what. I have a feeling that they may opt to give Deaf West/Spring Awakening a Special Tony Award (as they did with their last Broadway outing, Big River). That way they can reward the closed production and find space for the other three which are still playing.
Stay tuned and check the Contender pages for up to date listings and personal rankings.
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