Surveying the Field: Best Play Nominees 2015

It's no secret that last season wasn't a banner year for new plays on Broadway. It made predicting the Best Play category quite difficult. This year, the top category is up in the air for a different reason: we actually have a number of deserving candidates.

With eleven eligible new plays, the number of nominees has the potential to expand from four to five. This will occur if the fifth place finisher comes within three votes of the play in fourth place. When this new rule went into place last year, "Best Play" was the one top category where the expansion took place. Could we see the same thing happen again? Lots of producers are certainly hoping so.

Who won't be competing for those coveted slots? We can rule out The Country House and Living on Love right away. MTC's Blythe Danner vehicle failed to ignite much conversation and premiered ages ago at this point. Renee Fleming's Broadway debut is likely too light of a comedy to compete in such a stacked year. It may show up in a couple other categories, but not the big one. Past nominee Jez Butterworth probably won't score for his divisive play The River starring Hugh Jackman.  In a less competitive year, Larry David should easily slide into a victory lap for his mega hit Fish in the Dark. But drama is more widely embraced in the Best Play category (as opposed to musicals, where everyone wants to laugh and have a good time). But don't cry for David and Co., they will have piles of money to comfort them after the play misses with the Tonys.

There are seven strong contenders jockeying for position as nominees: Airline Highway, The Audience, Constellations, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Disgraced, Hand to God, and Wolf Hall.

The one lock to bet on is British import Curious Incident. It has played to huge houses since its premiere in the fall. Like past winner War Horse, the show is a theatrical tour de force, marrying heartfelt performances with evocative stagecraft. Unless something goes wrong post nominations, the play is in a perfect position to win.

The biggest threats are Wolf Hall and Hand to God. Tony voters can't seem to resist epics (i.e. Coast of Utopia), and the double-header historical drama Wolf Hall fits the bill. The play's producer, Royal Shakespeare Company, stirred up some drama two seasons ago when they refused to partner with American producers on Matilda. Some think the ill will cost them the Tony. Are voters still holding a grudge?

There is certainly no grudge with Hand to God playwright Robert Askins, who makes his Broadway debut with this irreverent play about a boy and his demonic puppet. Previously seen off-Broadway, it opened to some of the best reviews this season. It also gives Tony nominators a chance to embrace an American play. A play they know needs a little support from the Tonys to increase ticket sales.

With the top three in place, a bloodbath ensues for the one (or possibly two) remaining slots. Right now, I'm leaning towards The Audience. Helen Mirren's latest transformation into Queen Elizabeth is playing to packed houses every night, making her the front-runner for Best Actress. The critics were won over by the acting, but not the script as a whole. If it falters, Ayad Akhtar's Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced would likely take its place. It would be incredibly rare for a Pulitzer winner to miss a Best Play nomination. But the play made less of a splash this go around than when it premiered Off-Broadway. But, the script's timely subject matter on race relations may provide incentive to voters.

The remaining entrants both come from Manhattan Theatre Club. The non-profit is usually able to push at least one of its production into the top field, so there is still chance for Constellations or Airline Highway to breakthrough. Constellations was an enjoyable and utterly unique Broadway offering. I think the simplistic staging and two character set-up (combined with the competitiveness of the category) will put the focus on the actors instead of the play as a whole. Jake Gyllenhaal and Ruth Wilson maintain great odds for acting nominations, but those may be the play's only rewards. Airline Highway is unseen by many, but is said to provide meaty dramatic moments for the large ensemble cast. The real ace up its sleeve is, like Disgraced and Hand to God, it is written by an American in a British dominated field. When predicting Tony nominations, you can never discount the importance of the hometown advantage.  So Pulitzer Prize finalist (Detroit) Lisa D'Amour is a strong dark horse contender.


I personally hope a fifth nominee is used this year.  Broadway has become a tougher place for new plays to get produced and financed. It often leaves Tony voters struggling to come up with four plays worthy of theatre's highest honor. This season bucks that trend with a number of well crafted plays in the race.

Here's where they stand:

1. Curious Incident
2. Wolf Hall
3. Hand to God
4. The Audience

if there's a fifth
5. Disgraced

spoilers
6. Airline Highway
7. Constellations
long shots
8. Fish in the Dark
9. The River
10. Living on Love
11. The Country House