It's been a busy few days for Oscar watchers. The NYFCC, Gotham Awards, and National Board of Review have all chimed in with their early thoughts on the year's best. But what does it all mean?
Well, nothing. At least for the moment. As per usual with the early awards, the voters are inclined to go for a few out there choices. Sometimes the wins and/or nominations with these groups can create a real Oscar contender out of a long shot. Other times, the name may never be called again.
The NYFCC gave a real boost to Timothy Spall ("Mr. Turner") and Marion Cotillard ("Two Days, One Night" and " The Immigrant") just when they need it most. Spall will need a few more kudos like this to raise his profile, and show that "Mr. Turner" is more than a crafts showcase. I think Cotillard has a great chance of breaking into Best Actress, though she will have to work it. "Two Days, One Night" is a foreign language performance, and some members just won't vote for it for that reason.
The NBR also has a knack for going it's own way. Many of their Top Film's go on to an Oscar nomination...but individual winners are another story. Last year, for instance, Octavia Spencer was awarded Best Supporting Actress for "Fruitvale Station". Nothing more ever came of that win. So we should be cautious in reading too much into wins like Clint Eastwood for Best Director.
More than anything, the NBR seemed to want to spread the wealth around. The "Best Film" in each category (Feature/Documentary/Foreign) was not included in each larger list. "The Lego Movie" wins best screenplay and is mentioned in the top ten...but somehow loses Best Animated Film. Two films were feted with a Freedom of Expression Award, but nothing else. It's clear they wanted to mention everything they liked this year in some capacity.
I do wonder if the NBR can't do for "A Most Violent Year" what it did for "Her" last season. Most pundits surmised the Joaquin Phoenix/operating system love story would be too weird for the Academy. But the NBR named it the best film of the year, an Oscar campaign took shape, and "Her" landed a Best Picture nomination and a win for original screenplay. If history repeats itself, J.C. Chandor's dark film could be more formidable than we all thought.
One thing to note. These early bird groups haven't caught late debuting films yet. Or at least the entire voting body. So it remains to be seen how much weight "Into the Woods" and "Unbroken" have in the game. The two certainties that have emerged, however, are the freight trains named Julianne Moore and Michael Keaton. They have had a stellar week.
Keep your eyes peeled for more updates to The Contenders pages. Including the addition of my rankings for the 15 finalists for Best Documentary.
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