The Sammys 2019! Or: If I was an Oscar voter

We are finally at a close. This unpredictable Oscar season is at an end and the Academy's choices will soon be unveiled. While I'm used to my favorite film losing Best Picture, I'm not used to my favorite being shut out of nominations entirely. In fact, my top three films of the year all failed to register with Oscar voters.

Annihilation is a sci-fi fever dream. It feels like a spiritual successor to Aliens in many ways. It presents some of the most beautiful, disturbing, and hypnotic visuals of the year. The finale has haunted my mind since I saw it. The film dares to ask unanswered questions of the audience, and your interpretation of the film and its meanings will differ from your friends. It's a movie that offers new insights and revelations upon each viewing.

Eighth Grade has the most incredible screenplay of the year. Full stop. I have no idea how Bo Burnham so successfully captured the cadence and mannerisms in the way eighth-graders speak. The "umms," the stilted dialogue, the insecurity. And none of it ever feels like a schtick. Marry this writing with Elsie Fisher's painfully honest performance and you have one incredibly recognizable and moving film experience.

And then there's Leave No Trace. I knew next to nothing about the movie going in, but it quickly jumped to the top of my list after I sobbed my way through it. It's not a dialogue-heavy piece. The script is sparing with its language, there is no excess or fat on this thing. Instead, much of the story comes from the chemistry forged between its two stars Ben Foster and Thomasin McKenzie. And from the way Debra Granik charts them with the camera. She knows exactly when to get in close so you can see the story in their eyes and when to pull back and bring in the environment. An environment she can manipulate to be lush and gorgeous one moment and a dire threat the next.

I alternated between which of these three films was my favorite. Ultimately the gut punch of Leave No Trace is what is seared into my mind and heart. But all three were entirely ignored by the Academy. So let's fix that. Here are my own personal Oscars, the Sammys, for the year in film.

Picture

10. Colette

9. Can You Ever Forgive Me?   

8. Mary Poppins Returns

7. BlacKkKlansman

6. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

3. Annihilation

2. Eighth Grade (runner-up)

1. Leave No Trace (winner)

Director

Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Alex Garland, Annihilation (runner-up)

Debra Granik, Leave No Trace (winner)

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Lead Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (runner-up)

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (winner)

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Lead Actress

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Glenn Close, The Wife (runner-up)

Toni Collette, Hereditary (winner)

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Keira Knightley, Colette

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (runner-up)

Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade (winner)

Dominic West, Colette

Ben Wishaw, Mary Poppins Returns

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Danai Gurira, Black Panther

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (winner)

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (runner-up)

Ensemble

Black Panther (winner)

Crazy Rich Asians (runner-up)

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star is Born

Animated Feature

Incredibles 2 (runner-up)

Isle of Dogs

Ruben Brandt, Collector

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (winner)

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Documentary Feature

Free Solo

McQueen

Minding the Gap (runner-up)

RBG

Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (winner)

Original Screenplay

Colette

Eighth Grade (winner)

The Favourite (runner-up)

Private Life

A Quiet Place

Adapted Screenplay

Annihilation

BlacKkKlansman (runner-up)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Leave No Trace (winner)

A Star is Born

Film Editing

Annihilation (runner-up)

BlacKkKlansman (winner)

First Man

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse   

A Star is Born

Cinematography

First Man (winner)

Hereditary

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma (runner-up)

A Star is Born

Production Design

Annihilation

Black Panther (runner-up)

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns (winner)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Costume Design

Black Panther (winner)

Colette

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns (runner-up)

Mary Queen of Scots

Makeup/Hairstyling

Black Panther (winner)

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Suspiria (runner-up)

Vice

Sound Editing

Annihilation (winner)

Avengers: Infinity War

First Man

Ready Player One

A Quiet Place (runner-up)

Sound Mixing

Annihilation

A Quiet Place

First Man (runner-up)

Mary Poppins Returns (winner)

A Star is Born

Score

Black Panther

Annihilation (winner)

Colette

Hereditary

Mary Poppins Returns (runner-up)

Song

“Nowhere to Go But Up,” Mary Poppins Returns (runner-up)

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

“A Place Called Slaughter Race,” Ralph Breaks the Internet

“Sunflower,” Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

“Shallow”, A Star is Born (winner)

Visual Effects

Annihilation (runner-up)

Avengers: Infinity War (winner)

Christopher Robin

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

WINS

4 - Leave No Trace

3 - Black Panther

2 - Annihilation

2 - Eighth Grade

2 - Mary Poppins Returns

1 - Avengers: Infinity War

1 - BlacKkKlansman
1 - First Man

1 - Hereditary

1 - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

1 - A Star is Born

1 - Won’t You be my Neighbor?

The 10 Best Movie Moments of 2018

When I think back on the movies I've seen, it is usually just a moment that stands ingrained in my mind. A beautiful camera angle. A powerful monologue. A water-cooler moment that lives on in memes and gifs. The list below is not a "favorite movie" list. But they are the moments that have lasted.

10. Possesed, “Hereditary”

Ari Aster’s debut horror-fest was likely too brutal for many viewers. But boy does it pack a punch. After Toni Collette reaches her crescendo, descending into madness as evil forces take over, the camera lands on her sleeping son. It’s a familiar shot, a wide lens, pulled back to mimic the “dollhouse” effect seen at the start of the movie. Nothing appears to be happening other than a boy resting on his bed, until suddenly a figure comes into focus. Toni Collette’s Annie has been there the whole time, shrouded in darkness. Clinging to the ceiling, hovering over her child like a spider ready to leap in for a kill. What follows is a terrifying chase through the house as the son fights to survive against his possessed mother. But there was nothing as scary as this moment, when after scanning the screen, your eyes first discovered Annie hiding in plain view.

9. For Wakanda, “Black Panther”

I almost titled this one "Every Moment Where Danai Gurira Steps Into Frame." It would have been accurate. Her Okoye consistently steals every scene in which she appears. What was so surprising about "Black Panther" is how well crafted the female characters are (these Marvel affairs can be sausage fests after all). Okoye is badass the entire film, but the climactic battle is the best. When she must face off against her husband W'Kabi, he is incredulous that she would fight him: "Would you kill me, my love?" "For Wakanda" she asks. "Without question." The audience erupted into simultaneous cheers and applause at that moment (just one of many such moments in that film). And that's part of what makes "Black Panther" so great. The film has so many small moments, lines, jokes, glances, that enrich the world of the story.

8. Lonely Planet, “First Man

Yes, “First Man” is about an epic space mission. Yes, it’s about a time where our nation had hope and literally shot for the moon. But more than that, it’s the story of a man haunted by grief and loss. Framed around this concept, the moon landing is less about discovering an alien landscape for Neil Armstrong and more about discovering where he feels at home. There’s a powerful frame where he looks out over the rocky desolate stretch before him. There’s nothing for miles, through to the horizon. He is alone. Somehow, having never overcome the loss of his daughter, he feels more at home in this landscape than anywhere on Earth. Because really he’s been alone for a long time. And it takes him until this point, standing at the edge of a crater, to finally let go of the hurt that’s consumed him. 

7. The Snappening, “Avengers: Infinity War”

Of course none of us believes that the heroes who vanished in “The Snap” are really dead (you think Disney is going to kill off lucrative Spider-Man and Black Panther franchises before they’ve begun?). But it is still refreshing to see a major studio have the balls to through with such a drastic move with beloved characters. “Infinity War” could have been a bloated mess considering its cast size, but the emotional threads are woven carefully through the gargantuan story to keep it tight, to keep you invested. So when Thanos uses the time stone to negate Scarlet Witch’s sacrifice (Elizabeth Olsen is the unsung MVP of this film tbh) and snaps his completed Infinity Gauntlet, I still gasped. In fact the whole theater did as a collective, as half the Avengers turned into dust. The most affecting vanishing being Spider-Man’s desperate “I don’t want to go” as he fades away in Tony Stark’s arms. It’s a superhero movie, and they failed. How often do you see that?

6. Live-Aid, “Bohemian Rhapsody

There’s a point where Freddie Mercury, reunited with his band, commits to giving such an epic performance that he’ll punch a hole in the roof of the stadium at Live-Aid. When one of his bandmates notes that it has no roof, Mercury defiantly replies: “then we’ll punch a hole in the sky.” It’s this reframing of a concert, a pop culture moment, that we all know, that elevates Bohemian Rhapsody in its final act. No longer is it just a great concert. It’s a dying man literally comes to life before your eyes. There’s a virus inside him that he knows will kill him. But for this one moment in time, he is nothing but life. It pounds out through his fingers, soars through his vocal chords, and ripples into the audience. It’s electricity. He is literally punching the sky, saying “I am here.”


5. Saying Goodbye, “Leave No Trace”

One of the greatest personal joys of this awards season was having the opportunity to interview both Ben Foster and Thomasin McKenzie about “Leave No Trace.” These two performances are unparalleled in my opinion. Their chemistry so familial that it seems almost impossible that they aren’t father and daughter. And no moment encapsulates it better than their final moment together. They both know they can no longer stay with each other. Tom must work up the courage to leave her Dad behind, the only constant she’s ever known. And her father knows it’s coming. And how on Earth can one say goodbye to the person who has literally been your world for your entire life? It turns out: not with words. Because the actors perform most of the scene just with their eyes. And you feel every moment of it. Moments like this are as close as we mere mortals get to performing magic. Their goodbye is burned into my brain forever.

4. You Get to Exhale, “Love, Simon”

There are so many reasons to fall in love with “Love, Simon.” But this one scene, where mother comforts her worried son, touches the heart in a lasting way. It’s also a beautiful marriage of writing and performance. I can’t say anything more than what the words already convey so beautifully: “I knew you had a secret. When you were little, you were so carefree. But these last few years, more and more, it almost like I can feel you holding your breath. I wanted to ask you about it, but I didn't want to pry. Maybe I made a mistake...Being gay is your thing. There are parts of it you have to go through alone. I hate that. As soon as you came out, you said, "Mom, I'm still me." I need you to hear this: You are still you, Simon...You get to exhale now, Simon. You get to be more you than you have been in... in a very long time. You deserve everything you want.” Someday Jennifer Garner will get an Oscar nomination and I’ll point to this moment and say “what took so long!”

3. Doppelganger Dance, “Annihilation”

Alex Garland's "Annihilation" is a trippy dream-land. But nothing can quite prepare you for Lena's final showdown. From the moment she stares into the singularity, the movie enters into the realm of bizzarely beautiful. I'm not even sure how to describe Lena's confrontation with her metallic doppelganger. Is it a confrontation? Is it a dance? Is it violent or peaceful? Lena appears to ask these same questions as the faceless being mimics her every move. They become locked in a dizzy display, unable to escape each other or the room they're in. The music swells with warped sounding electronica, an alien soundscape. The scene almost exists outside of time and feels as though it may never end. How long have we been here anyway? And what happened when Lena blacks out? "Annihilation" asks too many questions to elaborate on here. But the image of Natalie Portman locked in an eternal dance battle is one of the most haunting visual and aural experiences of the year.

2. That Ending, “BlacKkKlansman”

Spike Lee had a tremendous task before him with ‘BlacKkKlansman.’ The tone morphs from serious to stylized comedy and back, balancing on the edge of a knife the entire time. His biggest coup in this regard is the ending. As Ron and Patrice aim their weapons at a suspected threat outside their door. The camera pans back as the two float down the hallway. The shot segues into the world of today. The horror that descended on Charlottesville. The “both sides” argument the president made. The young Heather Heyer who lost her life protesting voices of evil. “Enjoy the movie?” Spike seems to say, “Well this is still the world. What are you going to do about it?

1. Shallow, “A Star is Born”

I was so worried after seeing the first trailer for “A Star is Born.” Lady Gaga seemed so electric while singing Shallow. I got goosebumps. But I wondered: “Did they just give away the best part of the movie?” The answer was: yes, they did. But it remains so well executed, that the early reveal didn’t diminish its impact one bit. It encapsulates the entirety of the story in one moment. Ally mustering the courage to step out on stage. Timid at first. She can’t believe her lyrics are being sung by this famous legend. But then, she digs down, closes her eyes, and pushes the doubts from her head. When she opens her eyes, she is different and more confident. And she unleashes her voice as she hits the infamous riff, right before the bridge. There aren’t words, just vowels, but in them are the emotions she has been denied to express for years. It’s the moment you go to the movies for. 

Will Win and Could Win: Your Ultimate 2019 Oscars Guide

After a long and confusing season, we are in the home stretch. It is the most unpredictable year perhaps ever. Each precursor has pointed in the direction of a different film. PGA went for "Green Book." SAG went for "Black Panther." DGA for "Roma." The Editors went for "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "The Favourite." And then the Writers backed "Eighth Grade" and "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" which weren't even nominated for Best Picture.

Here is my final choices for "will win" and "could win" (as well as a ranked list of Best Picture nominees). There are a ton of races up in the air this year, because stats are being broken at every turn. So read this, go with your gut, consult your tarot cards, and hope for the best as your make your predictions.

Best Picture

1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. Black Panther
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice

It's all up in the air, folks. "Roma" won DGA and BAFTA. It's missing a nomination for Film Editing. No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, and it's unclear if the Academy is ready to embrace Netflix so fully. But it's been deemed a masterpiece and allows Academy members to back art house fare in a year dominated by popular tent-pole films.

"Green Book" won the PGA, the only group that uses the same preferential voting system as the Oscars. Why did "Roma" lose there? Unclear. But "Green Book" is the type of conventional feel-good movie voters love to embrace. It's been dogged by a plethora of controversies, but many voters don't seem to care. The bigger factor against it is the lack of directing nomination. "Argo" overcame that setback when Ben Affleck was snubbed in Director, but people certainly have not rallied around Peter Farrelly in the same way. In any case it's probably one of these two films for the win.

"Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman" are the only others that have an edge to snag the top prize. "Black Panther" won SAG Ensemble...but lacks nominations in director, acting, writing, or film editing. Stats-wise, it would have to break every rule in the book to win. But it also seems like that type of year. It also seems like a movie people will rank high on their ballots given the cultural significance it carries. "BlacKkKlansman", meanwhile, is that stats king. It has nominations for director, acting, writing, and film editing. Yet, it just lost WGA to "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" I still think Spike Lee takes Adapted Screenplay...but that could be the film's only award.

Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
Could Win: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"

Alfonso Cuaron has this in the bag. His finger prints are all over Roma, one of the most beloved films of the year, and a sort of film-journal for the auteur. Pawel Pawlikowski ("Cold War," the other hit foreign film) and Spike Lee ("BlacKkKlansman," his first ever directing nomination) both have ardent fans. But Cuaron has won every major award this season.

Lead Actor
Will Win: Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: Christian Bale, "Vice"

I suppose Bradley Cooper may get some sympathy votes here for being snubbed in director, but this award is Malek's to lose. They liked his performance so much that they shoved the movie into the Best Picture field, giving him a path to victory (Actor is generally tied to a Best Picture nom). Christian Bale is similarly transformative, but plays a disliked figure in a divisive movie. It's Malek's moment.

Lead Actress
Will Win: Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Could Win: Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"

It's hard to win when you're the only nominee for your movie. But no one has as storied a career as Close. She is on her 7th Oscar nomination and has never won, which has been a cornerstone of a very smart awards campaign for this role. Her Golden Globes speech basically sealed the deal. Still, Colman also won a Globe (Comedy) and took her native BAFTA award. But it feels like it's finally Glenn's year.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Oh how I'd love to see Grant step up to the podium for his fully lived in role. He's charming in the movie and equally charming on the campaign trail, despite the studio's overall effort for the film falling a bit short. But Ali has won nearly every precursor award and it just seems inevitable at this point. BFCA, SAG, Globe, BAFTA...next stop Oscar.

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Could Win: Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite" or Marina de Tavira, "Roma"

Too close to call, really. King was the perceived frontrunner, winning BFCA and the Globe. Then she wasn't even nominated at SAG or BAFTA. SAG gave a trophy to not-nominated Emily Blunt. BAFTA went with hometown girl Weisz. Weisz is fascinating and could steal it, but those of us who underestimated King at the Emmys (several times) know she is fully capable of pulling out a surprise win that defies stats. Also, if voters love "Roma" so much (and trust, they do) they might just check of de Tavira here to give the film an acting win. She's made appearances all over town and worked the circuit hard.

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, "The Favourite"
Could Win: Tony Vallelonga and Brian Curry, "Green Book"...or really any of them.

If anyone tells you they are certain about the winner here, they're a fool. WGA awarded not-nominated (but should have been) "Eighth Grade" and gave us no tea leaves. "The Favourite" was ineligible for that guild, but won BAFTA. "Roma" and "Green Book" are both Best Picture frontrunners. Paul Schrader has NEVER won an Oscar....and he wrote "Chinatown" so that is insane. They might want to finally give him one for "First Reformed." But "The Favourite" is so dialogue heavy, and obviously is propelled by its script. In a nail-biter race, I'll go with that one.

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, "If Beale Street Could Talk"

This is the best place to reward Lee and give him his first ever Oscar. He just won the BAFTA too. Still, Jenkins' script is a more "obvious" work of adaptation, and flows like the poetic pieces which it's based on. WGA went with Nicole Holofcener for "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" but that win makes sense with only writers voting since the film is about a writer. Expect the Academy at large to lean towards Spike.

Cinematography
Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Cold War"

Could Win? Forget it Jake. It's "Roma."

Film Editing
Will Win: "Vice"
Could Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Toss up. "Vice" undoubtedly has the showiest editing work. And often times it's the film with the most cuts, the most obvious use of the craft, that wins. BUT. The editors guild (ACE) awarded their drama prize to "Bohemian Rhapsody" and their comedy prize to "The Favourite." either of those could take it, but I give a slight edge to the Freddie Mercury pic, since the work stands out more. Especially the finale at Live Aid.

Animated Feature
Will Win: "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse"
Could Win: Incredibles 2"

The only sequel to ever win this category was "Toy Story 3" which was also a Best Picture nominee. That's bad news for "Ralph 2" and "Incredibles 2." Especially since Spidey emerged as a late favorite and had everyone talking during the voting period. It's quality storytelling and unique visuals will help it pull off a rare Disney/Pixar defeat.

Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Cold War"

"Cold War" over performed with directing and cinematography nominations, spurring many pundits to think about an upset here. But "Roma" should easily win given the massive amounts of love for it.

Documentary Feature
Will Win: "Free Solo"
Could Win: "RBG" or "Minding the Gap"

Without a certain Mr. Rogers pic nominated, this category is wide open. I've changed my mind between the above 3 docs more times than I can count, and will surely continue. "RBG" has the most cultural currency and is an easy, feel-good watch. "Free Solo" has the most dazzling visuals, being filmed from dizzy heights on the subject's daring Yosemite climb. It recently won the BAFTA. But "Minding the Gap" gained steam late in the race, and peaked as voters were marking their ballots. Not only does it have heart, but it's unlikely word of mouth success made voters feel like they "discovered" something when watching it. That's a powerful factor in a close race.

Production Design
Will Win: "The Favourite"
Could Win: "Black Panther"

A coin toss between "The Favourite" and "Black Panther." If any voters feel like too much of the production was CGI for "Panther" they may opt for the decked out real life locales in "The Favourite." I give it a razor thin edge.

Costume Design
Will Win: "Black Panther"
Could Win: The Favourite"

Same two movies go head to head again. Maybe I'm silly for predicting the two categories to split, but the costumes in "Black Panther" are just so colorful and vibrant and unique. And there's so MANY of them.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: "Vice"
Could Win: "Mary Queen of Scots"

Foreign entry "Border" really should be winning for the outstanding prosthetic work, but I highly doubt every voter has seen it. So "Vice" will win as the only Best Picture nominee of the three for transforming its cast into real life figures. The usual way to win this category.

Score
Will Win: Ludwig Goransson, "Black Panther"
Could Win: Nicholas Brittell "If Beale Street Could Talk" or Terrence Blanchard, "BlacKkKlansman"

What a crapshoot. There is no guild or precursor award to help us here. "Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman" are the two Best Picture nominees and either would make sense. The Marvel film just won a Grammy for its soundtrack. But then there's Nicholas Brittell and his gorgeous work in "If Beale Street Could Talk." I'd say that's the score with the most talk around it...but is there enough support for the film to push it through? And though heat has faded from the movie, "Mary Poppins Returns" would make a winner out of Marc Shaiman and the music is the center of the movie. Possibly the hardest to predict of the night, any of them could take it.

Original Song
Will Win: 'Shallow' from "A Star is Born"
Could Win: nah

Shockingly, this could be the only win "A Star is Born." Lady Gaga finally gets her Oscar, as none of the other nominated songs have had anywhere near the impact that this one has. I suppose there's a (looong) shot that 'All the Stars' from "Black Panther" could upset. But you'd be crazy to predict it.

Sound Editing
Will Win: "A Quiet Place"
Could Win: "First Man" or "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Can "A Quiet Place" really win its only nomination? They were just rewarded by the sound editors guild, so...maybe? It's certainly the most obvious use of sound effects in a movie. "First Man" is the type of thing that normally wins here (or something with big battles like "Black Panther"), but the guild's other award went to "Bohemian Rhapsody." That film has been underestimated by pundits all season long, but the industry has truly embraced it. Too close to call. They could even back "Roma" yet again.

Sound Mixing
Will Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: "A Star is Born"

Music driven films do well in this category. "Bohemian Rhapsody" just picked up the relevant guild award from sound mixers. "A Star is Born" may have a chance considering it uses elements of live singing, but I feel pretty good about "Rhapsody" here. Of course if votes are close between these two music films, it gives a chance for something like "First Man" to surprise.

Visual Effects
Will Win: "First Man"
Could Win: "Avengers: Infinity War"

"Avengers" dominated the guild award (VES), with a couple wins from "Ready Player One." Most people think "Avengers" has it in the bag. However, the Academy is not enamored with Marvel. And this isn't even the big Marvel movie they finally embraced. Disney didn't launch a robust campaign for "Avengers" b/c they didn't want it to eat attention away from "Black Panther." "First Man" DID have a large campaign, even if it ultimately disappointed and was left out of Best Picture. It won a supporting effects trophy from VES and is the type of prestige pic that voters will feel good about voting. Remember when everyone thought the "Planet of the Apes" trilogy would take this after dominating the VES? And then they were bested by more prestigious movies with bigger campaigns: "Hugo," "Interstellar" and "Bladerunner 2049."

Live Action Short
Will Win: "Marguerite"
Could Win: "Skin" or "Fauve"

In a category of depressing shorts, "Marguerite" stands out as a beautiful and affecting story that tugs on the heartstrings. Unlike the others it just makes you feel good. It's beautiful because of its simplicity and presents an easy to follow narrative. Still, "Skin" and "Fauve" are both compelling and expertly shot. But their depressing subject matter could hold them back.

Documentary Short
Will Win: "Period. End of Sentence."
Could Win: "Black Sheep"

What a category. Most pundits are heading towards "Black Sheep," a haunting recollection of racism. But I'm diverging from the pack. "Period. End of Sentence." has a push from Netflix and famed Oscar strategist Lisa Taback. While gender bias from the old boys club in The Academy could hold it back from winning (it's about ending taboo around menstruation in rural India), it is incredibly uplifting. Just like in Live Action Short, this is the feel-good apple in a bag of depressing oranges. Holocaust films also have strong history here, but "Night at the Garden" is all told through archival footage and may leave voters wanting.

Animated Short
Will Win: "Bao"
Could Win: "Late Afternoon"

"Bao" is Pixar. It's widely seen. It's cute. It's simple but affecting. It'll win. "Late Afternoon" is also incredibly emotional, right from the start. It could gain votes if people actually watch them all. But I'm not betting against Pixar.