The AFI (American Film Institute) announced their top ten films of 2017. Everything (mostly) fell into place, as the Best Picture race firms up. The AFI selections:
The Big Sick
Call me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
The first and last on the list, The Big Sick and Wonder Woman, are certainly on the shakiest ground for Best Picture. Especially since the other 8 films cited have been firming up their Oscar claims, appearing just about everywhere.
The utility players this season, who so far have dominated the awards circuit are Call me by Your Name, Get Out, and Lady Bird. The Post has also come on strong despite a late entry to the race. Dunkirk remains a visual marvel and directorial feat that will remain in conversations until the end. If we were dealing with a five film Best Picture lineup, I think these might be the five. I still contend that Dunkirk will have a hard time winning since it is not an "actor movie."
So which of the other four would win instead? Hard to say. Will Lady Bird represent the strong year in women in film? Does Call me by Your Name win over voters with visual sumptuousness and a gorgeous coming of age tale? Is Get Out their way to acknowledge the lack of opportunities and equality for people of color? Or will The Post serve as the ultimate middle finger to the Trump administration, being raised high by Hollywood's holy trinity of the father (Spielberg), the son (Hanks), and the holy spirit (Streep)? They all have plausible narratives.
The Shape of Water is also rebounding after a rocky start, and could overtake Dunkirk as the below the line juggernaut (with a very competitive Best Actress entry). And though Martin McDonagh might produce too divisive work to ultimately win the top award, Three Billboards is certainly poised for a nomination thanks to a crusading performance by Frances Mcdormand. The actors are with it. The Florida Project, which I've feared may have only been a "critic's movie" has seen universal praise and rounds out this top 8 pack.
With a 10 picture lineup mathematically improbable, we are looking at maybe one more slot to fill. Most assume it belongs to Darkest Hour. But as of now, the film looks more like Iron Lady (remembered for its winning central performance and makeup) rather than a Best Picture juggernaut. It'll be up to the upcoming industry kudos to change the tide for this one. I'm sure Netflix was thinking Mudbound would be able to resonate with AFI, but they may have to settle for some major awards without an accompanying Best Picture citation. It'll probably be up to the PGA to say otherwise (and a SAG ensemble nomination would also be welcome).
Will a comedy breakthrough? The Big Sick is competitive for Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay, but will undoubtedly feel too light to many voters. Another (much darker) comedy is also in play with I, Tonya. But I have a feeling the voters will go for stories with likable people this year. As Sasha Stone says: "good people doing good things."
Wonder Woman would be one of those good people. If Gal Gadot's pic shows up at the PGA, we will have to reassess its chances. But the issue is that so many genre films were incredible this year. The Academy will probably only have space for one of them, if at all. Will voters looking outside the box be united behind Wonder Woman? Or will they be split between her, Logan, Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast, Baby Driver, and War of the Planet of the Apes? If it's the later, they all lose.
Of course, maybe I'm looking too hard to find a consensus approved ninth nominee. Maybe the strong eight is our strong eight. And that's it.
