Outer Critics Circle Nominations Announced!

The Outer Critics Circle nominations have been announced! The first kudos of the season to reveal nominations, the Outer Critics Circle is comprised of writers who cover New York theatre for out-of-town and national publications. Both Broadway and Off-Broadway productions are eligible for these awards. 

Three shows with big Tony dreams (Fun Home, Disgraced, and Hand to God), were not eligible this year having been eligible for their Off-Broadway runs. Curiously, the new musical Finding Neverland was completely shut out. While the show was dealt a harsh blow by critics, this seemed like the awards body with which it would do best. 

As for shows the group embraced? The new musical Something Rotten! picked up the most citations, 12 in total. The show was followed closely by On the Twentieth Century (9), An American in Paris (8), and Wolf Hall (7). Lin Manuel Miranda'a Off-Broadway smash Hamilton reaped 5 bids (though was mysteriously shut out of the acting categories).  

Given the ineligibility of certain shows, Off-Broadway crossover, and zero overlap of voters, the Outer Critics Circle has a dubious track record in terms of being a Tony precursor. But it is still interesting to see what direction theses voters go, and who they throw weight behind (like the surprise love for It Shoulda Been You). Winners will be announced on May 11th, with a Gala for the winners on May 21st at Sardi's.

Full list of nominations below:

OUTSTANDING NEW BROADWAY PLAY
The Audience
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Wolf Hall

OUTSTANDING NEW BROADWAY MUSICAL
An American in Paris
It Shoulda Been You
The Last Ship
Something Rotten!
The Visit

OUTSTANDING NEW OFF-BROADWAY PLAY
Between Riverside and Crazy
The City of Conversation
The Nether
Rasheeda Speaking
The Village Bike

OUTSTANDING NEW OFF-BROADWAY MUSICAL
A Christmas Memory
Disenchanted
The Fortress of Solitude
Hamilton
Lonesome Traveler

OUTSTANDING BOOK OF A MUSICAL
(Broadway or Off-Broadway)
Hamilton
It Shoulda Been You
The Last Ship
Something Rotten!
The Visit

OUTSTANDING NEW SCORE
(Broadway or Off-Broadway)
Hamilton
It Shoulda Been You
The Last Ship
Something Rotten!
The Visit

OUTSTANDING REVIVAL OF A PLAY
(Broadway or Off-Broadway)
The Elephant Man
Fashions for Men
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

OUTSTANDING REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
(Broadway or Off-Broadway)
Into the Woods
The King and I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

OUTSTANDING DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Stephen Daldry The Audience
Marianne Elliott The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Scott Ellis The Elephant Man
Scott Ellis You Can't Take It With You
Jeremy Herrin Wolf Hall

OUTSTANDING DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Scott Ellis On the Twentieth Century
Thomas Kail Hamilton
Casey Nicholaw Something Rotten!
David Hyde Pierce It Shoulda Been You
Christopher Wheeldon An American in Paris

OUTSTANDING CHOREOGRAPHER
Joshua Bergasse On the Town
Andy Blankenbuehler Hamilton
Warren Carlyle On the Twentieth Century
Casey Nicholaw Something Rotten!
Christopher Wheeldon An American in Paris

OUTSTANDING SET DESIGN
(Play or Musical)
Bunny Christie The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Bob Crowley An American in Paris
Scott Pask Something Rotten!
David Rockwell On the Twentieth Century
Michael Yeargan The King and I

OUTSTANDING COSTUME DESIGN
(Play or Musical)
Gregg Barnes Something Rotten!
Bob Crowley The Audience
William Ivey Long On the Twentieth Century
Christopher Orem Wolf Hall
Catherine Zuber The King and I

OUTSTANDING LIGHTING DESIGN
(Play or Musical)
Paule Constable The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Jeff Croiter Something Rotten!
Rick Fisher The Audience
Natasha Katz An American in Paris
Japhy Weideman The Visit

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Reed Birney I'm Gonna Pray For You So Hard
Bradley Cooper The Elephant Man
Stephen McKinley Henderson Between Riverside and Crazy
Ben Miles Wolf Hall
Alex Sharp The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Greta Gerwig The Village Bike
Jan Maxwell The City of Conversation
Helen Mirren The Audience
Elisabeth Moss The Heidi Chronicles
Tonya Pinkins Rasheeda Speaking

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Christian Borle Something Rotten!
Brian d'Arcy James Something Rotten!
Robert Fairchild An American in Paris
Peter Gallagher On the Twentieth Century
Tony Yazbeck On the Town

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Kristin Chenoweth On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope An American in Paris
Tyne Daly It Shoulda Been You
Kelli O'Hara The King and I
Chita Rivera The Visit

OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

Paul Jesson Wolf Hall
Richard McCabe The Audience
Alessandro Nivola The Elephant Man
Nathaniel Parker Wolf Hall
Bryce Pinkham The Heidi Chronicles

OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Annaleigh Ashford You Can't Take It With You
Patricia Clarkson The Elephant Man
Francesca Faridany The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Julie Halston You Can't Take It With You
Lydia Leonard Wolf Hall

OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

John Cariani Something Rotten!
Josh Grisetti It Shoulda Been You
Andy Karl On the Twentieth Century
Paul Alexander Nolan Doctor Zhivago
Max von Essen An American in Paris

OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Heidi Blickenstaff Something Rotten!
Victoria Clark Gigi
Megan Fairchild On the Town
Ruthie Ann Miles The King and I 
Mary Louise Wilson On the Twentieth Century

OUTSTANDING SOLO PERFORMANCE

Joe Assadourian The Bullpen

Jim Dale Just Jim Dale

Tom Dugan Wiesenthal
Cush Jumbo Josephine and I
Benjamin Scheuer The Lion

JOHN GASSNER AWARD
(Presented for an American play, preferably by a new playwright)
Ayad Akhtar The Invisible Hand
Halley Feiffer I'm Gonna Pray For You So Hard
Elizabeth Irwin My Mañana Comes
Markus Potter Stalking the Bogeyman
Benjamin Scheuer The Lion

Surveying the Field: Best Play Nominees 2015

It's no secret that last season wasn't a banner year for new plays on Broadway. It made predicting the Best Play category quite difficult. This year, the top category is up in the air for a different reason: we actually have a number of deserving candidates.

With eleven eligible new plays, the number of nominees has the potential to expand from four to five. This will occur if the fifth place finisher comes within three votes of the play in fourth place. When this new rule went into place last year, "Best Play" was the one top category where the expansion took place. Could we see the same thing happen again? Lots of producers are certainly hoping so.

Who won't be competing for those coveted slots? We can rule out The Country House and Living on Love right away. MTC's Blythe Danner vehicle failed to ignite much conversation and premiered ages ago at this point. Renee Fleming's Broadway debut is likely too light of a comedy to compete in such a stacked year. It may show up in a couple other categories, but not the big one. Past nominee Jez Butterworth probably won't score for his divisive play The River starring Hugh Jackman.  In a less competitive year, Larry David should easily slide into a victory lap for his mega hit Fish in the Dark. But drama is more widely embraced in the Best Play category (as opposed to musicals, where everyone wants to laugh and have a good time). But don't cry for David and Co., they will have piles of money to comfort them after the play misses with the Tonys.

There are seven strong contenders jockeying for position as nominees: Airline Highway, The Audience, Constellations, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Disgraced, Hand to God, and Wolf Hall.

The one lock to bet on is British import Curious Incident. It has played to huge houses since its premiere in the fall. Like past winner War Horse, the show is a theatrical tour de force, marrying heartfelt performances with evocative stagecraft. Unless something goes wrong post nominations, the play is in a perfect position to win.

The biggest threats are Wolf Hall and Hand to God. Tony voters can't seem to resist epics (i.e. Coast of Utopia), and the double-header historical drama Wolf Hall fits the bill. The play's producer, Royal Shakespeare Company, stirred up some drama two seasons ago when they refused to partner with American producers on Matilda. Some think the ill will cost them the Tony. Are voters still holding a grudge?

There is certainly no grudge with Hand to God playwright Robert Askins, who makes his Broadway debut with this irreverent play about a boy and his demonic puppet. Previously seen off-Broadway, it opened to some of the best reviews this season. It also gives Tony nominators a chance to embrace an American play. A play they know needs a little support from the Tonys to increase ticket sales.

With the top three in place, a bloodbath ensues for the one (or possibly two) remaining slots. Right now, I'm leaning towards The Audience. Helen Mirren's latest transformation into Queen Elizabeth is playing to packed houses every night, making her the front-runner for Best Actress. The critics were won over by the acting, but not the script as a whole. If it falters, Ayad Akhtar's Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced would likely take its place. It would be incredibly rare for a Pulitzer winner to miss a Best Play nomination. But the play made less of a splash this go around than when it premiered Off-Broadway. But, the script's timely subject matter on race relations may provide incentive to voters.

The remaining entrants both come from Manhattan Theatre Club. The non-profit is usually able to push at least one of its production into the top field, so there is still chance for Constellations or Airline Highway to breakthrough. Constellations was an enjoyable and utterly unique Broadway offering. I think the simplistic staging and two character set-up (combined with the competitiveness of the category) will put the focus on the actors instead of the play as a whole. Jake Gyllenhaal and Ruth Wilson maintain great odds for acting nominations, but those may be the play's only rewards. Airline Highway is unseen by many, but is said to provide meaty dramatic moments for the large ensemble cast. The real ace up its sleeve is, like Disgraced and Hand to God, it is written by an American in a British dominated field. When predicting Tony nominations, you can never discount the importance of the hometown advantage.  So Pulitzer Prize finalist (Detroit) Lisa D'Amour is a strong dark horse contender.


I personally hope a fifth nominee is used this year.  Broadway has become a tougher place for new plays to get produced and financed. It often leaves Tony voters struggling to come up with four plays worthy of theatre's highest honor. This season bucks that trend with a number of well crafted plays in the race.

Here's where they stand:

1. Curious Incident
2. Wolf Hall
3. Hand to God
4. The Audience

if there's a fifth
5. Disgraced

spoilers
6. Airline Highway
7. Constellations
long shots
8. Fish in the Dark
9. The River
10. Living on Love
11. The Country House

Tony Awards Eligibility for "Honeymoon" and "Constellations" Revealed

The Tony Awards Administration Committee has met for the third time this season, to discuss eligibility of Broadway shows. The two productions discussed at this meeting were "Honeymoon in Vegas" and "Constellations".

Both Jake Gyllenhaal and Ruth Wilson will be considered eligible in Best Performance by a Lead Actor/Actress in a Play.

Tony Danza will be considered eligible in Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical.
(Tony Danza was billed above the title along with Rob McClure and Brynn O'Malley, but producers petitioned to consider him in the featured category.)

All other decisions were consistent with opening night credits.

The committee will meet one more time before the end of the season. Tony nominations will be announced on April 28th. The cutoff date for eligibility is April 23rd.

It's Tony Time

I think I've finally recovered from Oscar season burnout. So naturally I decided to do something crazy: get the entire Tony Awards "Contenders" section up and running!

But Sam, it's so early, you say? Some of the shows haven't even opened yet, you say? Sam put down the wine, you say? Well to hell with it (and no, I'll never put down the wine). I'm starting things off crazy early. And I've even made some foolish attempts at predictions. But please keep in mind the early stage of the game. These rankings will change quite a bit between now and April 28th. The contenders pages, as always, offer my view of the race as it looks right now. The four featured acting races have actually not been ranked since they still require a bit of work (and there is just too many variables regarding performances I haven't seen).

Aside: On April 28th the Tony nominations are being announced. AND the Supreme Court will hear same-sex marriage arguments. April 28th is shaping up to be the best day of the spring. Let's plan a celebration now. I'll being the wine. End of aside.

In other important news: Audra is coming. Broadway's Queen will return next spring in "Shuffle Along, or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed". The title is obviously much too long, but Audra McDonald is starring so it won't matter. George C. Wolfe will direct, with Savion Glover as choreographer. The show will chronicle the creation of the musical "Shuffle Along", which featured a rare all black cast.

See if my thoughts on this Broadway season line up with yours. Click through The Contenders and see how on point or crazy I am. Now get those cast albums in order and check back for frequent updates.

2015 Oscars Wrap Up

^The only moment that matters from last night

"Birdman" soars away with the Oscar and so ends another long award season. My final predictions tally came in at 17/24, or 71%. As expected, I got best director wrong. But I told you I would be glad to be wrong on that one. You did predict Inarritu, didn't you?

Most of the awards went according to plan. The biggest surprise is probably "Big Hero 6" stealing the Animated Feature trophy. After failing to win the animated race since the category's inception, Disney now has two in a row. Perhaps we all should have put more stock in the film. Given that there was no clear frontrunner with "The LEGO Movie" absent, Disney's brightly colored Marvel toon was probably the most widely seen.

I'm also kicking myself for not going with my gut on wins for Tom Cross in Editing and "Crisis Hotline" for Documentary Short. I should have seen both of them coming. Flashy editing has an increasing habit of taking the award, and the editing is showy and essential to "Whiplash". Invisible editing fights an uphill battle when the entire Academy is voting instead of individual branches. Thus, Sandra Adair stayed in her seat and "Boyhood" was represented with just a single (deserving) win for Patricia Arquette.

"Birdman" upped its expected award tally by claiming the Best Original Screenplay prize. I guess the thought of the academy splitting Picture, Director, and Writing among its three beloved auteurs (Inarritu, Linklater, and Anderson) was just wishful thinking on my part. I had a feeling the film would pick up an extra win somewhere, but I guessed that sound mixing was a more likely place for it to surprise. Having multiple writers on the ballot usually makes winning unlikely, but it didn't matter this year. "Birdman" put artists and the changing nature of Hollywood as the center of the universe. Its an irresistible setup for the Academy.

In case you somehow missed it, here is the complete list of winners for the 2015 Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE: "Birdman"
DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
LEAD ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything
LEAD ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Inarritu et al, "Birdman"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore, "The Imitation Game"
FILM EDITING: Tom Cross, "Whiplash"
CINEMATOGRAPHY:Emmanuel Lubezki, "Birdman"
PRODUCTION DESIGN: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
COSTUME DESIGN: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
ORIGINAL SCORE: Alexandre Desplat, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
ORIGINAL SONG: Common and John Legend, 'Glory' from "Selma"
SOUND EDITING: "American Sniper"
SOUND MIXING: "Whiplash"
VISUAL EFFECTS: "Interstellar"
ANIMATED FEATURE: "Big Hero 6"
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "Citizenfour"
FOREIGN FILM: "Ida"
LIVE ACTION SHORT: "The Phone Call"
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
ANIMATED SHORT: "Feast"

Biggest Winners
"Birdman" - 4
"Grand Budapest Hotel" - 4
"Whiplash" - 3

I will point out that in each category I got incorrect, the film I placed in second took the award. So I didn't lead anyone too far astray if you copied my picks. No angry emails y'all!

Final Thoughts

• "The LEGO Movie was perfectly represented with 'Everything is Awesome'. Will Arnet's Batman even took the stage. The Lego Oscars going out to the nominees in the crowd was a great touch

• How good was Gaga? Maybe it was just the straightforward style of performance that we arent used to seeing from her which had everyone surprised, but she nailed it. Flawless vocals. And thankfully left the gloves off the stage. 

• John Travolta was up there trying to make a moment happen. And Idina was all "please stop touching me now, Im trying my best to smile through this". It was awkward.

• It was a night of great speeches. Graham Moore (who is apparently NOT gay?) gave the most moving one for my money. Patricia Arquette killed it while demanding equal pay/rights for women (and more importantly gave us the best reaction shot/meme of the night from Meryl and JLo). JK Simmons was heartfelt and touching. Eddie Redmayne's excitement was fun to watch. And Julianne Moore was so classy. Good job people, thank you for coming prepared. 

• Except you Mr Inarritu. You knew you were going to win at least one trophy: write something down! 

• I think this is the most beautifully designed Oscars I've ever watched. The set looked gorgeous decorated with all those light bulbs. The animations on the opening number backdrop looked great. The title cards of each category were done in a cool and classy way. And the watercolor look to the In Memoriam segment made it somehow even more heartbraking to see those names up there.

• Speaking of: where the hell were Joan Rivers, Elaine Stritch, and Harold Ramis? Either have a definite set of rules dictating what qualifies a person to be included, or just include everyone. These omissions are occurring way too often. 

• Fun trivia: this is the first time since the Best Picture nominees expanded to more than 5 that each film up for Picture took home a trophy. Perhaps this is why we should have seen Graham Moore winning over Damien Chazelle in screenplay? Everyone got lovin' somewhere.

• NPH did a mostly good job as host. I liked the opening number, even if he did let Jack Black steal it from him. Some jabs such as "Hollywood's whitest...I mean brightest" were great. Others ("you could eat her with a spoon"...seriously who wrote that?) not so much. He knows how to infuse the night with energy, and though I already saw him in his skivvies at Hedwig I certainly wasn't saying no to seconds during that "Birdman" skit. Ultimately though, the music performances and classy speeches had more of an impact than his hosting. 

Til next year, dear awards nerds. 

The Sammys (If I Was an Oscar Voter)

We all know The Oscars get things wrong. That's why I am making my own list of nominees and winners: The Sammys. These awards have no bias against genre movies and aren't swayed by campaigning or screeners. And based on The Hollywood Reporters' Anonymous Oscar Ballot series, I think I've seen more films this year than most Academy members.

The list is just for fun, and I tried to stick with the Academy's rulings on placement. I managed this except in two areas.  1.) "Whiplash" is an original screenplay. If we are going to knock filmmakers for making shorts to get producers interested (often a necessity in today's filmmaking world) then the definition of "adapted" will change dramatically. 2.) "Birdman" is eligible for Score. It's the best score of the year and the music branch was foolish to reject it. 3.) Sadly, I've only seen two foreign films this year so I omitted a Foreign Feature category.

Out of everything I've seen this year, the top three movies in my Best Picture lineup registered the most. I waffled back and forth on which would win my personal award. In a previous post I mentioned that "The LEGO Movie" would take the honor. And while I will probably re-watch that joyous film more than any of the others, I can't shake my experience with "Boyhood". It has seeped into my psyche and thoughts and resonates long after the viewing experience is finished. Its the most stunning accomplishment in film this year, in this blogger's humble opinion. It deserves its place at the top.

Best Picture
10. Wild
9. The Grand Budapest Hotel
8. Guardians of the Galaxy
7. Nightcrawler
6. Snowpiercer
5. Gone Girl
4. Birdman
3. Whiplash
2. The LEGO Movie
1. Boyhood

Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman (runner-up)
Bong Joon-ho, Snowpiercer
Richard Linklater, Boyhood (winner)

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman (winner)
David Oyelowo, Selma (runner-up)
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
GuGu Mbatha-Raw, Belle (runner-up)
Julianne Moore, Still Alice (winner)
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (runner-up)
Edward Norton, Birdman
Chris Pine, Into the Woods
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (winner)

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (winner)
Laura Dern, Wild
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer (runner-up)

Best Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood (runner-up)
Edge of Tomorrow
Gone Girl
Whiplash (winner)

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The LEGO Movie (winner)
Nightcrawler (runner-up)
Whiplash

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl (winner)
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Wild (runner-up)

Best Cinematography
Birdman (winner)
Gone Girl
Mr. Turner (runner-up)
Nightcrawler
Unbroken

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel (runner-up)
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Snowpiercer (winner)

Best Costume Design
Belle
The Grand Budapest Hotel (winner-tie)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
Into the Woods (winner-tie)
Maleficent

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Belle
Guardians of the Galaxy (winner)
Into the Woods (runner-up)
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Best Score
Birdman (winner)
Gone Girl (runner up)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Imitation Game

Best Song
'Everything is Awesome' from "The LEGO Movie" (winner)
'Glory' from "Selma"
'Grateful' from "Beyond the Lights" (runner-up)
'Mercy Is' from "Noah"
'The Last Goodbye' from "The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies"

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (winner)
Edge of Tomorrow
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar (runner-up)
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper (runner-up)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Edge of Tomorrow (winner)
Godzilla
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Guardians of the Galaxy (runner up)
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Whiplash (winner)

Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8 (runner up)
Citizenfour
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga (winner)

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (runner up)
The LEGO Movie (winner)
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

WINS
Boyhood: 3
The LEGO Movie: 3
Whiplash: 3
Birdman: 2
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 1
Edge of Tomorrow: 1
Gone Girl: 1
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 1
Guardians of the Galaxy: 1
Into the Woods: 1
Snowpiercer: 1
Still Alice: 1
Virunga: 1

MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS
Birdman - 8
Boyhood - 6
Gone Girl - 6
Into the Woods - 6
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 5
Nightcrawler - 5
Whiplash - 5
The LEGO Movie - 4
Guardians of the Galaxy - 4
Snowpiercer - 4
Wild - 4
American Sniper - 3
Belle - 3
Edge of Tomorrow - 3
The Imitation Game - 3
Mr. Turner - 3
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies - 2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 2
Interstellar - 2
Maleficent - 2
Selma - 2
Unbroken - 2

Your Complete Guide to the Oscars...Even the Shorts

Hello Oscar Watchers

We are just days away from the Academy Awards. Ballots are in and being counted. Potential winners are holding their breath until Sunday.

This is a final breakdown of my thoughts on the season. Every category is included, even those pesky shorts which throw off everyone's Oscar pools. I have pretended to be smart and insightful to those races, but as is the case every year: no one knows what the hell is going to happen with them.

On a personal note, last night I completed my work in a new play (performing to a sold out house!) called "Submission" with Rapidfire Bootleg Theatre. This was the reason I didn't have quite as many postings in February as I would have liked. Though the Contenders section stayed mostly updated, and you can click over there for final rankings and more in depth thoughts on each category. (And in a personal plug: if you wan to know more about "Submission" and the work your favorite blogger has been doing, head to: http://www.rapidfirebootleg.com/)

Without further ado: Who will, could, and should win this years Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "Boyhood"
Should Win: "Boyhood"

The most confounding Oscar duel in recent memory. Both "Birdman" and "Boyhood" have strong claims to the throne. There is a lot of sentiment in "Boyhood" and industry respect for its achievements...but will they award its director for that instead? The PGA is what is pushing "Birdman" out front for me. It won using the same preferential ballot the Oscars now use to determine Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Birdman"
Should Win: Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"

I'm definitely predicting a split for Picture/Director. With my luck it will probably go opposite the way I predicted it, which is the tricky part of predicting a split. If you are voting in an office pool or a friends Oscar party, you should put down the same film for Picture and Director in case you guess the opposite split. But I'm being silly and stubborn. I just can't see filmmakers looking at Richard Linklater's 12 years of dedication and not awarding him for it.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, "Theory of Everything"
Could Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman" (Bradley Cooper?)
Should Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman"

The only acting race with any suspense. Redmayne has picked up the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. That almost always spells Oscar. Keaton has Critics Choice and Globe (comedy) wins, and the film serves as a capstone to his career. He could eek out a win on sentiment. Bradley Cooper is a late entry wild card who threatens to upend the whole thing.

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Could Win: One of the others could win best dressed?
Should Win: Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"

Ms. Moore finally gets her Oscar moment. Four other actresses get to rest easy and enjoy the evening knowing they aren't coming anywhere near the podium.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
Could Win: Edward Norton...if J.K. Simmons wasn't nominated
Should Win: J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

This is as locked up as Best Actress is. Nothing to see here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Could Win: she's got this
Should Win: Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

Arquette has won every supporting actress trophy under the sun. No reason to think she won't be on stage this Sunday.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "Nightcrawler"

Seems like an easy place to reward "Grand Budapest" in a major category. But if "Birdman" is indeed loved enough to win Best Picture, they may check it off here as well.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game" or "Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

Anything could win this one (except "Inherent Vice"). They may even choose this as a place to reward "American Sniper". Put the four films on the wall and throw a dart, and you'll know just as much about this category as anybody.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: "Boyhood"
Could Win: "Whiplash"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

"Boyhood" seems like the clear winner here, but "Whiplash" gave everyone pause when it took the BAFTA. Both have passionate fanbases and very different styles of editing. In the end Sandra Adair's monumental 12 year task puts "Boyhood" in the lead.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: "Birdman"
Could Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Should Win: "Birdman"

"Birdman" has one guaranteed win of the night here. Lubezki will win his second consecutive Oscar for his dizzying long shots.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Imitation Game"
Should Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Production design is a key element of any Wes Anderson film and the iconic pink and purple motif should score an easy win. "The Imitation Game" has potential for an upset with similar period decorations as "Lincoln" did, but I don't think team "Budapest" needs to worry.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"
Should Win: "Guardians of the Galaxy"

The race is always close in a three-nominee category. But I see no reason why the voters won't stop "Grand Budapest's" domination of the crafts categories stop here. The intricate body makeup of "Guardians of the Galaxy" does provide an opportunity to reward a popular film, so a surprise here is certainly possible.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "Into the Woods"
Should Win: "Into the Woods"

"Into the Woods" has under-performed in this category all season long, in what should have been a locked in win for beloved designer Colleen Atwood. So, the stylized garb from "Grand Budapest" steals the gold.

BEST SCORE
Will Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Could Win: "The Theory of Everything"
Should Win: "Birdman" (stupidly deemed ineligible)

I'm less confident about "Grand Budapest" here. Johann Johannsson's sweeping score to "Theory of Everything" has won over a great many viewers. But, it seems time for veteran composer Alexandre Desplat to finally win an Oscar, and he's contributed a score to the presumed tech/craft juggernaut of the awards season.

BEST SONG
Will Win: 'Glory' from "Selma"
Could Win: 'I'm Not Gonna Miss You' from "Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me"
Should Win: 'Everything is Awesome' from "The LEGO Movie"

Common and John Legend have been pushing "Glory" hard. And in a year without a mega hit like "Let it Go" or "Skyfall", it allows the Academy to say "see, we gave 'Selma' something!". Though the opportunity to award the Alzheimer afflicted Glenn Campbell a final trophy could give him the sentiment vote.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Should Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"

"Interstellar" would appear to have more support given its multiple nominations tally. But it has proven to be a divisive film. And the team on "Apes" has taken home multiple guild awards and pushed the boundaries of visual effects.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: "American Sniper"
Could Win: "Birdman"
Should Win: "The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies"

Most voters have no idea what good sound design entails, so usually the loudest film wins. War films do very well, and they will want to give the highest grossing best picture nominee something. It should be an easy get for "American Sniper".

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: "Whiplash"
Could Win: "American Sniper" or "Birdman"
Should Win: "Whiplash"

Those who don't know the difference between editing and mixing might be tempted to check off "American Sniper" for both categories. But they have the opportunity to vote for "Whiplash" in this one, and there is more passionate support for that movie in the Academy. And the drums are, you know, loud.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will Win: "Ida"
Could Win: "Wild Tales"
Should Win: "Ida"

"Ida" has a cinematography nomination, and many voters probably saw this on Netflix before they even received screeners. It has a powerful story and wide enough reach to take home the trophy. But, if voters aren't in the mood for a depressing film about the Holocaust, the stylish and fun "Wild Tales" will pick up their vote.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2"
Could Win: "Big Hero 6"
Should Win: "The LEGO Movie" (not nominated for reasons beyond comprehension)

Animation professionals might vote for the hand drawn "The Tale of Princess Kaguya", but "How to Train Your Dragon 2" looks gorgeous and works on basically every level. Unless voters simply check off the Disney title, "Dragon" should repeat its Globe win this Sunday.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: "CitizenFour"
Could Win: "Virunga"
Should Win: "Finding Vivian Maier"

"Citizenfour" has been picking up basically every documentary prize. I don't think the heart wrenching tale of the mountain gorillas in "Virguna" can surpass it, as hard as Netflix has been campaigning.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Will Win: "The Phone Call"
Could Win: "Boogaloo and Graham" or "Parvaneh"
Should Win: "The Phone Call"

"The Phone Call" features Academy award nominee Sally Hawkins as a crisis hotline operator who tries to talk a widower (Jim Broadbent) out of committing suicide. She gives a powerful performance that anchors the film. Its competitor is the upbeat and ridiculous "Boogaloo and Graham" about two young brothers whose chickens face euthanasia amidst a war in Ireland...hard to describe, just watch it. The adorable film will stand out for its upbeat tempo, but will it be enough to overcome the emotional gut punch of "The Phone Call"?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: "Johanna"
Could Win: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
Should Win: "Our Curse"

A tough race to call between a worthy crop of nominees. "Johanna" follows a dying Polish women trying to pass on wisdom to her 5 year old son in her last months before she dies. "Crisis Hotline" follows a crisis phone room where responders attempt to talk down suicidal veterans. I expect the vote will be very close. "Crisis Hotline" feels more important, and successful suicide interventions stir powerful emotions. But the story of Joanna is so deeply personal, and her strength in facing death leaves too deep an impact to ignore.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: "Feast"
Could Win: "The Dam Keeper"
Should Win: "The Dam Keeper"

"Feast" has the Disney touch and played before "Big Hero 6", so it will be the most widely seen nominee. "The Dam Keeper" features gorgeous animation and a poignant (though dark) story of a bullied pig who runs a windmill that protects his anthropomorphic town from pollution. Its probably the better film than the cutesy Disney fare, but with the entire Academy now voting on the short categories, Disney has the edge.