After a long and confusing season, we are in the home stretch. It is the most unpredictable year perhaps ever. Each precursor has pointed in the direction of a different film. PGA went for "Green Book." SAG went for "Black Panther." DGA for "Roma." The Editors went for "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "The Favourite." And then the Writers backed "Eighth Grade" and "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" which weren't even nominated for Best Picture.
Here is my final choices for "will win" and "could win" (as well as a ranked list of Best Picture nominees). There are a ton of races up in the air this year, because stats are being broken at every turn. So read this, go with your gut, consult your tarot cards, and hope for the best as your make your predictions.
Best Picture
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. Black Panther
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
It's all up in the air, folks. "Roma" won DGA and BAFTA. It's missing a nomination for Film Editing. No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, and it's unclear if the Academy is ready to embrace Netflix so fully. But it's been deemed a masterpiece and allows Academy members to back art house fare in a year dominated by popular tent-pole films.
"Green Book" won the PGA, the only group that uses the same preferential voting system as the Oscars. Why did "Roma" lose there? Unclear. But "Green Book" is the type of conventional feel-good movie voters love to embrace. It's been dogged by a plethora of controversies, but many voters don't seem to care. The bigger factor against it is the lack of directing nomination. "Argo" overcame that setback when Ben Affleck was snubbed in Director, but people certainly have not rallied around Peter Farrelly in the same way. In any case it's probably one of these two films for the win.
"Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman" are the only others that have an edge to snag the top prize. "Black Panther" won SAG Ensemble...but lacks nominations in director, acting, writing, or film editing. Stats-wise, it would have to break every rule in the book to win. But it also seems like that type of year. It also seems like a movie people will rank high on their ballots given the cultural significance it carries. "BlacKkKlansman", meanwhile, is that stats king. It has nominations for director, acting, writing, and film editing. Yet, it just lost WGA to "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" I still think Spike Lee takes Adapted Screenplay...but that could be the film's only award.
Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
Could Win: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Alfonso Cuaron has this in the bag. His finger prints are all over Roma, one of the most beloved films of the year, and a sort of film-journal for the auteur. Pawel Pawlikowski ("Cold War," the other hit foreign film) and Spike Lee ("BlacKkKlansman," his first ever directing nomination) both have ardent fans. But Cuaron has won every major award this season.
Lead Actor
Will Win: Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: Christian Bale, "Vice"
I suppose Bradley Cooper may get some sympathy votes here for being snubbed in director, but this award is Malek's to lose. They liked his performance so much that they shoved the movie into the Best Picture field, giving him a path to victory (Actor is generally tied to a Best Picture nom). Christian Bale is similarly transformative, but plays a disliked figure in a divisive movie. It's Malek's moment.
Lead Actress
Will Win: Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Could Win: Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
It's hard to win when you're the only nominee for your movie. But no one has as storied a career as Close. She is on her 7th Oscar nomination and has never won, which has been a cornerstone of a very smart awards campaign for this role. Her Golden Globes speech basically sealed the deal. Still, Colman also won a Globe (Comedy) and took her native BAFTA award. But it feels like it's finally Glenn's year.
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Oh how I'd love to see Grant step up to the podium for his fully lived in role. He's charming in the movie and equally charming on the campaign trail, despite the studio's overall effort for the film falling a bit short. But Ali has won nearly every precursor award and it just seems inevitable at this point. BFCA, SAG, Globe, BAFTA...next stop Oscar.
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Could Win: Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite" or Marina de Tavira, "Roma"
Too close to call, really. King was the perceived frontrunner, winning BFCA and the Globe. Then she wasn't even nominated at SAG or BAFTA. SAG gave a trophy to not-nominated Emily Blunt. BAFTA went with hometown girl Weisz. Weisz is fascinating and could steal it, but those of us who underestimated King at the Emmys (several times) know she is fully capable of pulling out a surprise win that defies stats. Also, if voters love "Roma" so much (and trust, they do) they might just check of de Tavira here to give the film an acting win. She's made appearances all over town and worked the circuit hard.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, "The Favourite"
Could Win: Tony Vallelonga and Brian Curry, "Green Book"...or really any of them.
If anyone tells you they are certain about the winner here, they're a fool. WGA awarded not-nominated (but should have been) "Eighth Grade" and gave us no tea leaves. "The Favourite" was ineligible for that guild, but won BAFTA. "Roma" and "Green Book" are both Best Picture frontrunners. Paul Schrader has NEVER won an Oscar....and he wrote "Chinatown" so that is insane. They might want to finally give him one for "First Reformed." But "The Favourite" is so dialogue heavy, and obviously is propelled by its script. In a nail-biter race, I'll go with that one.
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
This is the best place to reward Lee and give him his first ever Oscar. He just won the BAFTA too. Still, Jenkins' script is a more "obvious" work of adaptation, and flows like the poetic pieces which it's based on. WGA went with Nicole Holofcener for "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" but that win makes sense with only writers voting since the film is about a writer. Expect the Academy at large to lean towards Spike.
Cinematography
Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Cold War"
Could Win? Forget it Jake. It's "Roma."
Film Editing
Will Win: "Vice"
Could Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Toss up. "Vice" undoubtedly has the showiest editing work. And often times it's the film with the most cuts, the most obvious use of the craft, that wins. BUT. The editors guild (ACE) awarded their drama prize to "Bohemian Rhapsody" and their comedy prize to "The Favourite." either of those could take it, but I give a slight edge to the Freddie Mercury pic, since the work stands out more. Especially the finale at Live Aid.
Animated Feature
Will Win: "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse"
Could Win: Incredibles 2"
The only sequel to ever win this category was "Toy Story 3" which was also a Best Picture nominee. That's bad news for "Ralph 2" and "Incredibles 2." Especially since Spidey emerged as a late favorite and had everyone talking during the voting period. It's quality storytelling and unique visuals will help it pull off a rare Disney/Pixar defeat.
Foreign Language Feature
Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Cold War"
"Cold War" over performed with directing and cinematography nominations, spurring many pundits to think about an upset here. But "Roma" should easily win given the massive amounts of love for it.
Documentary Feature
Will Win: "Free Solo"
Could Win: "RBG" or "Minding the Gap"
Without a certain Mr. Rogers pic nominated, this category is wide open. I've changed my mind between the above 3 docs more times than I can count, and will surely continue. "RBG" has the most cultural currency and is an easy, feel-good watch. "Free Solo" has the most dazzling visuals, being filmed from dizzy heights on the subject's daring Yosemite climb. It recently won the BAFTA. But "Minding the Gap" gained steam late in the race, and peaked as voters were marking their ballots. Not only does it have heart, but it's unlikely word of mouth success made voters feel like they "discovered" something when watching it. That's a powerful factor in a close race.
Production Design
Will Win: "The Favourite"
Could Win: "Black Panther"
A coin toss between "The Favourite" and "Black Panther." If any voters feel like too much of the production was CGI for "Panther" they may opt for the decked out real life locales in "The Favourite." I give it a razor thin edge.
Costume Design
Will Win: "Black Panther"
Could Win: The Favourite"
Same two movies go head to head again. Maybe I'm silly for predicting the two categories to split, but the costumes in "Black Panther" are just so colorful and vibrant and unique. And there's so MANY of them.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: "Vice"
Could Win: "Mary Queen of Scots"
Foreign entry "Border" really should be winning for the outstanding prosthetic work, but I highly doubt every voter has seen it. So "Vice" will win as the only Best Picture nominee of the three for transforming its cast into real life figures. The usual way to win this category.
Score
Will Win: Ludwig Goransson, "Black Panther"
Could Win: Nicholas Brittell "If Beale Street Could Talk" or Terrence Blanchard, "BlacKkKlansman"
What a crapshoot. There is no guild or precursor award to help us here. "Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman" are the two Best Picture nominees and either would make sense. The Marvel film just won a Grammy for its soundtrack. But then there's Nicholas Brittell and his gorgeous work in "If Beale Street Could Talk." I'd say that's the score with the most talk around it...but is there enough support for the film to push it through? And though heat has faded from the movie, "Mary Poppins Returns" would make a winner out of Marc Shaiman and the music is the center of the movie. Possibly the hardest to predict of the night, any of them could take it.
Original Song
Will Win: 'Shallow' from "A Star is Born"
Could Win: nah
Shockingly, this could be the only win "A Star is Born." Lady Gaga finally gets her Oscar, as none of the other nominated songs have had anywhere near the impact that this one has. I suppose there's a (looong) shot that 'All the Stars' from "Black Panther" could upset. But you'd be crazy to predict it.
Sound Editing
Will Win: "A Quiet Place"
Could Win: "First Man" or "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Can "A Quiet Place" really win its only nomination? They were just rewarded by the sound editors guild, so...maybe? It's certainly the most obvious use of sound effects in a movie. "First Man" is the type of thing that normally wins here (or something with big battles like "Black Panther"), but the guild's other award went to "Bohemian Rhapsody." That film has been underestimated by pundits all season long, but the industry has truly embraced it. Too close to call. They could even back "Roma" yet again.
Sound Mixing
Will Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: "A Star is Born"
Music driven films do well in this category. "Bohemian Rhapsody" just picked up the relevant guild award from sound mixers. "A Star is Born" may have a chance considering it uses elements of live singing, but I feel pretty good about "Rhapsody" here. Of course if votes are close between these two music films, it gives a chance for something like "First Man" to surprise.
Visual Effects
Will Win: "First Man"
Could Win: "Avengers: Infinity War"
"Avengers" dominated the guild award (VES), with a couple wins from "Ready Player One." Most people think "Avengers" has it in the bag. However, the Academy is not enamored with Marvel. And this isn't even the big Marvel movie they finally embraced. Disney didn't launch a robust campaign for "Avengers" b/c they didn't want it to eat attention away from "Black Panther." "First Man" DID have a large campaign, even if it ultimately disappointed and was left out of Best Picture. It won a supporting effects trophy from VES and is the type of prestige pic that voters will feel good about voting. Remember when everyone thought the "Planet of the Apes" trilogy would take this after dominating the VES? And then they were bested by more prestigious movies with bigger campaigns: "Hugo," "Interstellar" and "Bladerunner 2049."
Live Action Short
Will Win: "Marguerite"
Could Win: "Skin" or "Fauve"
In a category of depressing shorts, "Marguerite" stands out as a beautiful and affecting story that tugs on the heartstrings. Unlike the others it just makes you feel good. It's beautiful because of its simplicity and presents an easy to follow narrative. Still, "Skin" and "Fauve" are both compelling and expertly shot. But their depressing subject matter could hold them back.
Documentary Short
Will Win: "Period. End of Sentence."
Could Win: "Black Sheep"
What a category. Most pundits are heading towards "Black Sheep," a haunting recollection of racism. But I'm diverging from the pack. "Period. End of Sentence." has a push from Netflix and famed Oscar strategist Lisa Taback. While gender bias from the old boys club in The Academy could hold it back from winning (it's about ending taboo around menstruation in rural India), it is incredibly uplifting. Just like in Live Action Short, this is the feel-good apple in a bag of depressing oranges. Holocaust films also have strong history here, but "Night at the Garden" is all told through archival footage and may leave voters wanting.
Animated Short
Will Win: "Bao"
Could Win: "Late Afternoon"
"Bao" is Pixar. It's widely seen. It's cute. It's simple but affecting. It'll win. "Late Afternoon" is also incredibly emotional, right from the start. It could gain votes if people actually watch them all. But I'm not betting against Pixar.
