BEST MUSICAL
1.) Dear Evan Hansen
2.) Come From Away
3.) Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812
4.) Groundhog Day
The top three are locks. "Groundhog Day" has developed a rooting factor and sense of goodwill after pushing through despite Andy Karl's injury. It's also a ton of fun. In case of a tie, expect last minute surprise "Bandstand," or technical marvel "Anastasia" to slip in a fifth slot.
BEST PLAY
1.) A Doll's House, Part 2
2.) Sweat
3.) Oslo4.) Indecent
These seem pretty solid and truly any of them could win. If being an orange (audacious but poignant comedy) in a bag of apples ("important" dramas) helps you stand out, "A Dolls House Part 2" could have the edge. "Significant Other" "The Encounter" and "Heisenberg" would make worthy nominees, but probably only possible in a tie. Its been a phenomenal season for new plays.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
1.) Hello, Dolly!
2.) Falsettos
3.) Sunset Boulevard
The only question: "Sunset Boulevard" or "Miss Saigon" in the third slot. Last year had a similar situation and yielded four nominees. It could happen again.
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
1.) The Little Foxes
2.) Jitney
3.) Six Degrees of Separation
4.) Present Laughter
"The Price" could muscle it's way in, but its only other guaranteed nomination is Featured Actor. Ditto "The Front Page" which will probably find its only nomination with Nathan Lane. It'll be "The Little Foxes" vs. "Jitney" for the win. Kudos to MTC.
DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
1.) Rachel Chavkin, "Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812"
2.) Michael Greif, "Dear Evan Hansen"
3.) Christopher Ashley, "Come From Away"
4.) Jerry Zaks, "Hello, Dolly!"
5.) Matthew Warchus, "Groundhog Day"
I feel fairly confident here. James Lapine could be a spoiler for his high concept "Falsettos" or Andy Blankenbuehler might be welcomed into the directors club for "Bandstand." But, outside of voters claiming Jerry Zaks "recreated" instead of directed, the top 5 are solid.
DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
1.) Bartlett Sher, "Oslo"
2.) Ruben Santiago-Hudson, "Jitney"
3.) Daniel Sullivan, "The Little Foxes"
4.) Rebecca Taichman, "Indecent"
5.) Sam Gold, "A Doll's House, Part 2"
Holy hell, this is hard. There are seven would-be sure things, but only five slots. So some huge omissions are going to happen. Controversially, I think Kate Whoriskey ("Sweat") and Trip Cullmann ("Six Degrees of Separation") get snubbed. At least that's how I'm thinking for the next five minutes before I change my mind again. Sam Gold is vulnerable since his play is not a "big" production, but will they snub the most in demand theater director of the moment in a well liked play?
LEAD ACTRESS - MUSICAL
1.) Bette Midler, "Hello, Dolly!"
2.) Patti LuPone, "War Paint"
3.) Christine Ebersole, "War Paint"
4.) Denee Benton, "Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812"
5.) Laura Osnes, "Bandstand"
The fourth and fifth slots are completely up for grabs. Anyone who tells you otherwise is nuts. I think this may be the only lead category with a tie. My gut tells me Eva Noblezada makes the cut for her on and off stage narrative with "Miss Saigon." But would she take Benton or Osnes? And Christy Altomare has her fans. I'll stick with the above five for now and probably be wrong when I wake up.
LEAD ACTOR - MUSICAL
1.) Ben Platt, "Dear Evan Hansen"
2.) Andy Karl, "Groundhog Day"
3.) David Hyde Pierce, "Hello, Dolly!"
4.) Josh Groban, "Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812"
5.) Christian Borle, "Falsettos"
Borle could split votes with himself, but "Falsettos" is well loved. Groban isn't as true a lead as his competitors, which could hurt him. If either fall through the cracks, expect Jon Jon Briones to right the messy Tony history of The Engineer with a nomination for "Miss Saigon."
LEAD ACTRESS - PLAY
1.) Laurie Metcalf, "A Doll's House, Part 2"
2.) Laura Linney, "The Little Foxes"
3.) Cate Blanchett, "The Present"
4.) Allison Janney, "Six Degrees of Separation"
5.) Sally Field, "The Glass Menagerie"
The top four are set. Many pundits have Jennifer Ehle rounding out the category, but the character doesn't offer the actress much to work with. I think it comes down to Sally Field vs. Mary-Louise Parker. It'll be a coin toss, but Field has earned respect despite a divisive production.
LEAD ACTOR - PLAY
1.) Kevin Kline, "Present Laughter"
2.) Gideon Glick, "Significant Other"
3.) Corey Hawkins, "Six Degrees of Separation"
4.) Simon McBurney, "The Encounter"
5.) Mark Ruffalo, "The Price"
I'm going against the grain by omitting Jefferson Mays, but his character is burdened with the same narration issues as Ehle's. Chris Cooper or Denis Arndt could swoop in and grab someone's slot. Likely Ruffalo whose play is flying a bit under the radar. I'll probably kick myself for not bumping Ruffalo for Cooper but, one can never know.
For my rankings on these and all categories (including those pesky Featured acting races and design categories) head over to the contenders page.
