Drama Desk React

Last night the Drama Desk Awards presented their annual kudos at Town Hall.  The Drama Desks are chosen by a very small number of people, and nominations are given out by an even smaller pool. So they don't always line up with the Tonys, but there are many interesting things to note about last night.

• Off-Broadway: Don't bother writing an acceptance speech.  It always strange to me that these awards take such pride at being one of the few major awards bodies in town who award shows on, off, and off-off Broadway. However, Off-Broadway fare has an incredible disadvantage at these awards.  Perhaps the voters want the night to be taken seriously as a Tony precursor? And this is why Off-Broadway generally only manages a couple wins. This year Off-Broadway netted a grand total of ZERO awards. I think its time to change up the voting or create separate categories for On and Off Broadway. There was certainly a slew of worthy productions in smaller theaters this season and they deserve their due.

• Twelfth Night. The Shakespeare's Globe revival took home the Best Revival and Best Director prize. What's strange is its only other nomination was best Costume Design (which it lost to Bullets Over Broadway, the sole musical nominee).  Not a single mention for its talented ensemble, even Mark Rylance.  I thought they would spring for The Glass Menagerie given its other acting nominations. Granted, since categories at the DD's are comprised of Off-Broadway as well, strange omissions will always occur.  In a tight Tony race, the Twelfth Night team must be feeling very happy about their chances after last night.

• TIES! Two of them! Neil Patrick Harris and Jefferson Mays both accepted for Lead Actor in a Musical. Jefferson Mays has done very well at the precursors so far, especially considering how "in the bag" it is supposed to be for Harris. I still think NPH is out in front, but this race is clearly not as cut and dry as previously thought. The Tonys have a much larger pool of voters, making a tie less likely. And the Tony voters are more likely to embrace Harris, who has reinvigorated the Tony ceremony and interest in Broadway in previous years. BUT WE AREN'T DONE! Lauren Worsham and Anika Larsen tied for Featured Actress in a Musical. Though they did not have to face off against the pretty stiff Tony competition of Lena Hall and Linda Emond.  I've had a hunch newcomer Worsham could manage a surprise win here for a while.  People have laughed at me for this. So I was very pleased to be able to say: SEE. Its possible. Whats possible too is Larsen riding the new wave of support for Beautiful.  If Anika Larsen's name is announced on June 8th, expect Beautiful to pick up the big prize. What this tie proves is that the featured actress category is really up for grabs (though it seems Adriane Lenox is the one person we can count out).

•  Featured Actress in a Play.  Another category where no one has a clue as to who the front runner is.  My suspected winner, Celia Keenan-Bolger, took the Drama Desk last night. One of her fellow nominees were in competition last night: Sophie Okonedo.  And she could take the Tony (Mare Winningham and Anika Noni Rose should not be counted out either).  But what I was paying attention to was the reaction of the crowd. Because when Celia's name was read: everyone ROARED. Broadway loves her.  She's been on the scene for a while doing quality work.  This is her third Tony nomination. This is probably the only place where voters can reward the stellar Glass Menagerie cast. When we assess winners, we often mention passion. How passionate are voters about a show or performer. And if last night is any indication, the passion is strongly resonating for Celia Keenan-Bolger.

• Jason Robert Brown. Despite the show's closing, the composer managed double wins for Score and Orchestrations.  I have been cautiously predicting the same outcome for the Tony Awards.  They have been doing a wonderful job of promoting the music for the show.  The cast album is on the Billboard 200. The leads have been making appearances and performing at every opportunity. And Kelli O'Hara has been very active in her campaigning for the musical.  There is now a consensus that the musical was wronged, and we have basically shunned one of our great contemporary composers by allowing his show to close.  Im not entirely confident it will be enough for JRB to net both of these categories at the Tonys, but he should definitely walk away with at least one of them.

Who Will Win: Musical Odds & Ends

Best Score
1.) The Bridges of Madison County (Jason Robert Brown)
2.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman)
3.) Aladdin (Alan Menken, Howard Ashman, Tim Rice, and Chad Beguelin)
4.) If/Then (Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey)

This category is a battle between the Best Musical favorite and a show that's closed early but was lauded for its music. If the Tonys split this category into "best music" and "best lyrics" I feel confident that A Gentleman's Guide would take Lyrics while Bridges of Madison County takes music.  Being the frontrunner for the top award always helps here. Steven Lutvak and Robert Freedman have created an endlessly witty and entertaining score that mirrors the madcap antics on stage. Jason Robert Brown should not be counted out however. This is actually his longest Broadway run and he has pulled off a best score win before for Parade, which had a February closing. Bridges has managed to stay open through the Summer Road Conference, where many road producers (whoa re also Tony voters) will havent gotten the chance to see it. Many of Brown's lush melodies also play well outside of context, whereas relatively few of Gentleman's Guide's tracks are ones you would typically listen to outside of seeing the show. The Bridges' marketing team has smartly been pumping the cast album to bolster this fact.  I think JRB's score stays with the audience more than any other new musical this season. Its a score I cant stop listening to. And so Im going out on a limb to say the JRB manages to nab this award from the best musical winner for a second time.

Best Book
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Robert L. Freedman)
2.) Aladdin (Chad Beguelin)
3.) Beautiful (Douglas McGrath)
4.) Bullets Over Broadway (Woody Allen)

Robert L. Freedman seems to have this award fairly safely in the bag for A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder. It will almost certainly win Best Musical, and the production who takes the big award generally takes Best Score or Best Book or both. A Gentleman's Guide boasts the most clever wordplay of any of these msuicals, and the script helps set the pacing and tone of the show immensely. Chad Beguelin could be the one to challenge here with his book for Aladdin. Voters may appreciate his penchant for humor and ability to weave in pop culture references to the story. Its a script that entertains kids and adults alike.  A dark horse candidate would be Beautiful's book writer: Douglas McGrath. While many complained that the book felt a bit wooden, the musical itself has accumulated a lot of admiration, and McGrath puts i a lot of effort to make his characters well rounded. I dont think either will ultimately have the strength to pull voters away from the laugh out loud wordplay of Freedman.

Best Choreography
1.) After Midnight (Warren Carlyle)
2.) Bullets Over Broadway (Susan Stroman)
3.) Rocky (Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine)
4.) Aladdin (Casey Nicholaw)

Its revue status may hurt After Midnight in the Best Musical race, but it could very well lead double nominee Warren Carlyle to a win for Choreography. There is A LOT of dancing in After Midnight. A lot of fantastic dancing. The format of the show, and absence of actual plot, allows for the choreography to shine in the spotlight.  Fighting for the win is Susan Stroman's Bullets Over Broadway.  The musical garnered mixed reactions and missed out on a best musical nomination. However, Stroman's stupidly good choreography is the best part of the show. The ensemble works their asses off to perform Sto's notoriously complicated and stunning dances. With a nomination for the top award, I think After Midnight has a slight edge and is seen in a more favorable light. Voters have also awarded Ms Stroman with the tony for her choreography four other times, so perhaps they will want to award first time nominee Carlyle instead.

Spoiler: Rocky. If there is anything that could unseat the aforementioned nominees, its the end fight in Rocky. The fight is a marvelous creation that thrills and enthralls for the final 20 minutes.  Regardless of a voters thoughts on the show overall, the choreography of this epic finale usually wins everyone over at the end. It takes a while to get there, but the audiences all leave with a smile on there face, and its largely thanks to Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine's choreography.

Best Orchestrations
1.) The Bridges of Madison County (Jason Robert Brown)
2.) Beautiful (Steve Sidwell)
3.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Jonathan Tunik)
4.) Bullets Over Broadway (Doug Besterman)

This category has only been around for 17 years.  and while I am glad they give out this award, its youth makes declaring a winner this year very hard to call.  Among the 17 winners: 11 were the Best Musical winner (including 2009's tie) and 3 were the Best Revival winner.  Two of the remaining awards went to what was likely the Best Musical runner up (Ragtime and The Light in the Piazza) which were superior, at least musically speaking, to the Best musical Winner in their respective years.  The final one went to the big name in the category (Billy Joel for Movin Out).
So. This year no revival contenders appear in the category. The one I will rule out completely is Bullets Over Broadway.  It likely just squeezed into the category, with orchestrations that are nice and big but fairly standard.  The remaining three all really have a shot. A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder is the current  frontrunner for the top award (and boasts multiple winner Jonathan Tunik) which gives it bonus points. Voters who may not know a ton about what goes into orchestrating a musical may just tick off the box because this was their favorite show.  However, as much as I loved A Gentleman's Guide..., I must admit the other two nominees stand out more as far as this category is concerned.  The pop sound of Carole King's hits in Beautiful is expertly recreated to fill a Broadway house.  There are a slew of classic, beloved songs here and they sound great. So a vote for Beautiful in this category is a way to vote for the music.  I will go out on a limb and say that Bridges of Madison County, despite its closing, has what it takes to topple Carole King. For one it has composer Jason Robert Brown himself as the nominee. It also sounds unlike anything we've heard on Broadway recently. The lush sweeping sense of the score is brought to life through a mixture of classic orchestra instruments accompanied by guitars, strings, and percussion that all blend seamlessly.  The music savvy voters (which many of them are) will likely be swayed by the most distinctive sounding new musical this season.

Who Will Win: Play Performances

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
3.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
4.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
5.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men

Since All the Way opened, Bryan Cranston has been the frontrunner in this category and still remains in that spot. In arguably the most competitive category of the year, where even Denzel Washington couldn't break through, Cranston still looms large over the whole race. Even those who aren't loving the play itself are still singing the Breaking Bad star's praises. And his transformation into LBJ puts him far out ahead of his peers. The closest to him may be Tony Shalhoub in Act One. He gives a terrific performance as George S. Kaufman, complete with his signature eccentricities the actor perfected on so many seasons of Monk.  Shalhoub is also saddled with playing Moss Harts' father and an older version of Hart who narrates his past.  Many find issue with the multiple narrators motif and it may be what holds Shalhoub back from a win.

Spoiler: Samuel Barnett. Tim Carroll's Twelfth Night came out swinging with nominators and the production is clearly beloved. Leading that pack is an impressive performance Barnett. The actor dons drag (which seems to help with Tonys these days) in this traditional style performance as Viola. Many critics singled him out for his sensitive and convincingly feminine performance. Some prognosticators are going with Rylance's Richard III as a possible upset.  However, Tony voters are not required to attend all productions like the nominators are, and I think too few will have viewed its 2-show-a-week run.


Best Actress in a Play
1.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
3.) LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn.

This category should be called "Clash of the Titans". McDonald and Jones, theatre royalty, are up against each other and no one can be sure who will ultimately win. Both performers received rapturous praise from audiences and critics alike. Many thought Ms. Jones had this in the bag when Glass Menagerie opened. But then along came Audra. In Lady Day, her transformation into Billie Holiday defies logic as she goes against type to play the drug addicted jazz singer. When she opens her mouth for the first time, the audience gasps at the sound coming out. Although this race is as close as flipping a coin, the fact that Mcdonald's show is still open, and that she carries that whole thing by herself, I have a feeling Audra will take the win. May some voters want to reward Jones with a third Tony before Audra breaks the all time record with 6? Of course. But, when youre this good it's sort of hard to argue.

Spoiler: LaTanya Richardson Jackson. Now, if anyone other than the two aforementioned actresses has their name called on June 8th...I'll probably have a heart attack. But if by some miracle it happens: Jackson would be the one to do it. She is in a show with multiple nominations that draws great audience response. Plus, her decision to accept the role last minute after Diahann Carroll dropped out (mid rehearsal process) gives her a great narrative of which theatre legends are born.


Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

The Tonys just love Mark Rylance. A double nominee this year, his gender-bending performance as Olivia in Twelfth Night is the one that will likely score him another trophy. Voters cant get enough of him and neither could audiences earlier this season. Can anyone compete with such a talked about role? I have a hunch Brian J. Smith is the man to do it. His "Gentleman Caller" scene was one of the highlights of The Glass Menagerie revival. The consensus from many a theatre devotee was he was that Smith gave the scene new meaning. Though he has had previous roles in plays such as "The Columnist", this became his breakout. Oh, and everybody also loves staring at his abs. If anyone can take down an awards favorite its the guy who's the new talk of the town.

Spoiler: Reed Birney. Another gender defying role (Im sensing a trend here) that everyone is talking about. Though the entire cast of Casa Valentina is sublime, longtime theatre vet Birney has a viper of a part. As the villainous Charlotte, the actor wastes not a single gesture or vocal inflection. His presence is felt the moment he steps on stage, and he uses his voice like a blade to calmly and coolly cut the legs out from under his adversaries.  Its a searing transformation that doesn't leave you when the play is finished. Mr. Birney has been on the scene a long while, and voters may feel its finally time to reward him.


Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
3.) Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan

This may be the most up for grabs of all the acting races. Celia Keenan-Bolger is loved in the Broadway community, and though she missed out on some precursor nods, I think she is the favorite to win. If only by a hair.  Her performance as Laura in The Glass Menagerie showed the actress, primarily known for musicals, could flex her dramatic chops alongside one of the greatest living stage actors. There is love for the play, love for her, and in a year without a clear frontrunner that kind of affection can push you over the edge. Mare Winningham is coming off a win (albeit a tie) from the Outer Critics Circle. She gives a lovely subtle performance in Casa Valentina. But the subtlety could be what holds her back, as the featured category often (though not always) rewards flashier roles. She does get to deliver the last line of the play, and is one of the most sympathetic figures in the piece.

Spoiler: Anika Noni Rose. The two A Raisin in the Sun actresses form an interesting conundrum. Sophie Okonedo plays the role which usually garners more awards recognition, being the slightly larger and more central character. But audiences fell for Anika Noni Rose's portrayal of Beneatha. The praise was unanimous and she often walks off with most of the scenes in which she appears. Ms. Rose has had a wonderful career in the theatre thus far and the only reason she isn't ranked higher is because she must compete against a formidable co-star.

Who Will Win: Musical Performances

The nominations are out, and its time to look at how the race stands. First up Ill be attempting to sift through the performances in this season's musicals.

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Genlteman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Andy Karl, Rocky
4.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
5.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

The frontrunner here, without a doubt, is Neil Patrick Harris. Hedwig is a role built for awards. He gets to transform himself, playing completely against type, carrying the entire show. It doesn't hurt that he is also giving the most energetic performance I've ever seen on Broadway, with impeccable timing and a stellar voice. His closest competition is Jefferson Mays. A previous Tony winner for "I Am My Own Wife", Mays gets to create 8 different personas in "A Gentleman's Guide...", giving a tour de force comedic performance full of slapstick, expert delivery, and more quick changes than you can count. Unless Mays' show has enough love to start a big Tonys sweep, it will be hard for anyone to compete with NPH.

Spoiler: Andy Karl. While the show isn't loved by many, I've been seeing an overwhelming amount of goodwill toward Karl. Sometimes voters like to try and crown a new Broadway leading man with this award (see: Steve Kazee) and I have a feeling Andy Karl is going to get a lot of votes for his intensely physical performance. He has also gotten a Broadway.com vlog to boost his profile and the producers have made a push for him with numerous interviews and articles. If ever there was a dark horse, the guy playing Rocky Balboa is it.


Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Mary Bridget Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin  

This race has been seen as Mueller vs. O'Hara for a long time, and it likely still is. O'Hara has a lot of juicy material and soaring ballads to pour her heart out in during Bridges of Madison County. And though I give a lot of credit to the producers for keeping the show open long enough for voters to see it (many will be in town for the final week since they will be here for the Spring Road Conference), the shows' early closing and relative lack of Tony love do hurt her chances. Which leaves a door open for the newcomer Jessie Mueller. Beautiful really serves as a stellar showcase for this actress, who since making her Tony nominated Broadway debut (in a flop), has worked non-stop to consistent praise. People love her, she's the new "it-girl", and she is likely going to win a Tony. O'hara is certainly not out of the running though. She has her fans in the theatre community, who are certainly just as tired as she is of coming in second place.

Spoiler: Sutton Foster. Yes: She won this category very recently. Yes: She has two Tonys already. But in Violet, Foster gets to play against type.  This is a wild departure from her more frothy song-and-dance musicals like Millie or Anything Goes. Here she is at her most emotionally raw and vulnerable, and received love letters in the form of reviews from essentially every outlet. As we have seen in the past from the likes of Audra Goddess McDonald: if they like you, then they really really like you.  And many a voter might just really really like Foster.


Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Joshua Henry, Violet
4.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Whether reviewers liked or disliked Aladdin, they all had one thing in common to say: This is the Genie's show. Iglehart lights up the stage whenever he appears, and better yet, makes you miss him when he disappears.  Its a scene stealing performance full of immense energy, physicality, and zingers. And I dare say "Friend Like Me" will go down as one of the great showstoppers of this past decade. Hot on his heels is Danny Burstein. Like Ms. O'Hara, he has gotten good at playing the Tony bridesmaid despite a slew of wonderful performances. As the sympathetic Schultz in Cabaret, he wins over the audience without any flashy gimmicks or provocative dancing. He just gives an incredibly nuanced, lived in performance. Like always. In a play, this could be enough for him to win, but voters tend to reward flashier featured roles in the musical categories. The powerhouse Iglehart fits that bill perfectly.

Spoiler: Joshua Henry. A previous nominee for The Scottsboro Boys, Henry provides one of the musical highlights of the season in Violet with the song "Let it Sing". He has a powerful and robust voice, and the song will stay with you long after you've left the theatre. He also plays the most sympathetic man during Violets stage journey, and his chemistry with Sutton Foster is a joy to watch.


Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
3.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
4.) Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful

Without a doubt the most open race of these four acting categories. I'm not really confident at naming it a two horse race at this stage of the game...but since that's the format I've set myself up with, I suppose Ill have to make a call. This is a category where an unknown or seeming dark horse can break through. Nikki M James and Karen Olivo come to mind. So I have a hunch newcomer Lauren Worsham is out in front, even if just by a nose. She is in the Best Musical frontrunner (and likely winner), she gets to play a mix of ingenue and comedy, and she showcases her lovely legit soprano (which is quite a rarity on Broadway these days). With both leading men from "A Gentleman's Guide..." potentially being shut out, this could be the one place to reward the show's stellar cast. Also extremely competitive is Hedwig's Lena Hall. Performing in convincing male drag, Hall adds tremendous depth to a a thinly written character. At the risk of being attacked by die-hard HedHeads, I think she may be the best Yitzhak we've ever seen. She gives a soaring version of "And I Will Always Love You" ala Whitney, and showcases ridiculous vocal precision on her solo number.  It also helps that the producers are arguably campaigning just as hard for her as they are for NPH.    

Spoiler: Linda Emond.  Emond is a beloved theatre veteran who gives a charming and tragic performance as Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret. Many thought she should have won for her last nomination on Death of a Salesman, so that could strike empathy in voters to reward her this go around. Of course, the other two in this category can also be called spoilers given the lack of clear frontrunner. I think that despite her stealing the show with just a few songs, the lack of a "character" will hold back Adriane Lenox from a win for the revue After Midnight.  I could also be underestimating Anika Larsen, but Beautiful by and large, seems to be Jessie Mueller's show by consensus. Hopefully the race will clear up as the ceremony draws closer.

Nominations Morning

Well I did alright, but like usual, the Tonys threw a few curve balls.

*I didnt think they would take 2 out of 4 Best Musical slots for shows without an original score. So we have the frontrunner Gentleman's Guide, a revue, a jukebox musical, and Disney's fun but very corporate made/on brand/middle-of-the-road feeling vehicle. Beautiful would have been my fifth but I thought they would look to Bridges of Madison County as a musical with a brilliant original score to fill a slot. Guess I was wrong. Though this really should have been the category with five nominees...

*Which brings me to Best Play. Seriously? In such a weak year there is no need for 5 of these to get kudos, but it speaks to the lack of consensus the nominators had, given that nothing particularly stuck out. Im baffled that Act One is the most nominated of the new works, though I cant begrudge Shalhoub who is doing marvelous work in the play. I still think (or at least hope) Harvey's Tony savvy will allow him to propel Casa Valentina victory. In a group where none are perfect, it is at least the one that will engage you and make you think.

*There were some great performances Im glad got remembered. In no particular order: Mary Bridget Davies, Paul Chahidi, Samuel Barnett, Lauren Worsham, Jarrod Spector, and Lena Hall. All of them were definitely "on the bubble" and Im glad they managed a spot.

*And performers who were overlooked (my god was lead actor in a play a massacre or what? It was like Red Wedding: The Play). Again in no particular order: Zachary Quinto, Denzel Washington, Ian McKellen, Daniel Radcliffe, Lisa O'Hare, Gabriel Ebert, Rebecca Hall, and the gorgeous, please-belt-in-my-face-all-day Steven Pasquale. If Bridges of Madison County decides they have to post a closing notice, he is welcome to come sing the score in my room to my every night... moving on..

*The best Director of a Play category is made up entirely of helmers of revivals. Further sending a message of the lacking quality of the new works. I thought Joe Mantello, forever present at the Tonys, would manage a nom over Grandage, but these four are a pretty solid group. And over in best Director of a Musical Im pleased that Leigh Silverman made the cut in such a male dominated year.  I feel like I was the only person for a while who considered her in there and glad I made that call.

*Im glad Machinal got remembered even if its solely in "below the line" categories. I really wish Roundabout wouldn't do such short runs, since a great many people didn't get to see it. It may be harder to sell for a long period of time, but I think it would be doable (better marquee and poster design would be a start...)

*Did ANYONE predict Stephen Fry getting a featured actor nomination? I really didnt hear any buzz about him at all, and chatter was low compared to his fellow cast members. And he managed to likely take that last slot from a Casa Valentina or All the Way actor to become the third Twelfth Night performer nominated in the featured category. Pretty impressive morning overall for Twelfth Night. Shakespeare doesn't tend do well at the Tonys, but this year seems poised to change that now. I thought Menagerie had revival in the bag but I think the two are neck and neck at this point.

Ill rank the top 4 categories as I see them now. Full predictions coming soon.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) Beautiful

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) Mothers and Sons
5.) Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables

Best Play Revival
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

Final Predictions

Ok. Here we go. Every category. My no guts, no glory predictions of who is in.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) The Bridges of Madison County
spoilers: Beautiful, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Mothers and Sons
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoiler: Act One

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables
spoiler: Cabaret

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) Twelfth Night
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Of Mice and Men, Waiting for Godot

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: Andy Karl, Rocky

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
2.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
spoiler: Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
4.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
5.) Daniel Radcliffe, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie & Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
              & Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
spoilers: Estelle Parsons, Velocity of Autumn & Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses

Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
spoilers: Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men & Patrick Page, Casa Valentina

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Anika Noni-Rose, Of Mice and Men
3.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
4.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Andrea Martin, Act One & Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful
spoiler: James Snyder, If/Then & Brooks Ashmanskas, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Adrianne Lenox, After Midnight
2.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
spoilers: Lena Hall, Hedwig & Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide
(this was the hardest to call for me, not really confident about anything here)

Best Director of a Play
1.) John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night
3.) Joe Mantello, Casa Valentina
4.) Bill Rauch, All the Way
spoilers: Anna D. Shapiro, Of Mice and Men & Sam Gold, The Realistic Joneses

Best Director of a Musical
1.) Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angy Inch
3.) Warren Carlyle, After Midnight
4.) Leigh Silverman, Violet
spoilers: Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway & Michael Grief, If/Then

Best Score
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Bridges of Madison County
3.) If/Then
4.) Aladdin
spoiler: Rocky & Big Fish

Best Book
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Aladdin
3.) Beautiful
4.) Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: If/Then  & Rocky

Best Orchestrations
1.) After Midnight
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Beautiful
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Hedwig and the Angry Inch & Les Miserables

Best Choreography
1.) After Midnight
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
4.) Rocky
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide... & Big Fish

Best Costumes Design - Play
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) Act One
3.) Casa Valentina
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Cripple of Inishmaan & Of Mice and Men

Best Costume Design - Musical
1.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
3.) After Midnight
4.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide...

Best Scenic Design - Play
1.) Act One
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) No Man's Land
4.) Mothers and Sons
spoilers: Twelfth Night & The Snow Geese

Best Scenic Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Aladdin
spoilers: A Gentleman's Guide... & If/Then

Best Lighting Design - Play
1.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Act One
3.) The Realistic Joneses
4.) Machinal
spoilers: The Glass Menagerie

Best Lighting Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Aladdin

Best Sound Design - Play
1.) Machinal
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Casa Valentina

Best Sound Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) The Bridges of Madison County
4.) Beautiful
spoilers: Bullets Over Broadway

Another Look at the Big Four

Now that more shows have opened (every show eligible is at least in previews) I wanted to take a look at how the big four races have shifted.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
3.) After Midnight
4.) If/Then
spoilers
5.) Beautiful
6.) The Bridges of Madison County
7.) Aladdin
long shots
8.) Rocky
9.) Big Fish

Based on its creative team and subject matter (and spring opening), Bullets Over Broadway was the assumed frontrunner even before people saw it.  But reviews have come out and it has sharply divided critics. Perhaps more so than any show this season. Ben Brantley among many others, raked it over the coals while it received sterling reviews from the likes of the Associated Press, EW, and TimeOut.  The other kids on the block who all previously wondered if they were endangered have smelled blood in the water and have gone full throttle with campaigning. Id say Gentleman's Guide is now the one to beat (and are proudly touting their best reviewed musical of the season status). Slots 3 and 4 could really go toward any of the top 7.  After Midnight has seen a drop in attendance and voters may want to assist this well liked show, even if it is a revue. My gut says enough voters will want to reward If/Then for its originality despite a lukewarm response. But Beautiful and Bridges are nipping at its heels and could easily get the last slot instead.

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) Mothers and Sons
3.) All the Way
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoilers
5.) Act One
6.) Outside Mullingar
long shots
7.) The Velocity of Autumn

A fairly weak year for new plays makes the category hard to call. But it seems like Harvey's to loose at this point. Casa Valentina is his first new play in a long while and he provides ample opportunities for the outstanding ensemble cast to shine. The Tonys love men in dressed as women! Fierstein hasnt won best play since Torch Song Trilogy and he knows just how to play the Tony game. Mothers and Sons has divided critics though it has positive feedback from audiences. All the Way is a mixed bag, but in this weak year, expect the power of Bryan Cranston (and its big box office) to elevate it to the top category. The fourth slot is the wild card. Act One disappoints and bores and will only show up if voters feel obligated to vote for Moss Harts memory and/or James Lapine. Outside Mullingar was well received but came and went quickly.  Which leaves Will Eno's post-absurdist comedy which will likely have as many fans as it will haters in the nominating body.

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Violet
spoilers
4.) Cabaret

Les Mis opened with an impressive advance in sales, and impressive reviews. It seems no one will ever tire of this sweeping epic even only a short while after a film adaptation. It will receive many nominations, but will the voters really want to give it another trophy when there are new things to reward? Violet is performing well in its streamlines, one-act approach. I expect it to divide critics but there's certainly enough to love to warrant a nomination, but I dont think it'll be enough to win. And then there is Hedwig. The show that is becoming the event of the season. No other show is getting audiences roaring, clapping, cheering, singing along as much as this one. Its thrilling to watch and expertly put together. The big question is: Cabaret, will they or wont they? They arent required to nominate more than 3 productions if less than six shows qualify. And this is an identical mounting. If it is nominated, itll have to settle for fourth place.

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Twelfth Night
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
5.) Of Mice and Men
6.) Waiting for Godot
7.) No Man's Land
8.) Machinal
long shots
9.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
10.) Richard III
11.) The Winslow Boy

Speaking of that new "number of nominees rules", if any category is expanded to 5, it'll be this one. There's so much quality here, I wish I could easily tell you who would be the final nominees with any form of certainty, but there's too much to choose from. I feel relatively confident at my top three here. Glass Menagerie is poised to be this years "Virginia Woolf" and should perform well despite its early bow. A Raisin in the Sun has proved those skeptical about  the ages of its stars wrong.  Kenny Leon has a great track record with the Tonys and will continue it with this production. And while Shakespeare has had a hard time at the Tonys, Twelfth Night got such unanimous praise, even by those who normally cant sit still for good ole Bill, I cant imagine it not showing up here. The revival which got a ton of  press due to its stars may get shut out. I'm talking about the rep productions of Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  The reviews weren't as good as the Shakespeare double bill, and unlike Rylance and Co., both plays were performed 4 times a week (Twelfth Night got 6, Richard III 2). So do the voters unite around Beckett or Pinter? I'm guessing the split here will allow either Cripple of Inishmaan or Of Mice and Men to slip past them, claiming the last spot. I favor the former.  Americans' cultural inferiority complex to the Brits may win out over the star-bating Hollywood casting of Mr Steinbeck's work. Machinal's limited run may knock it out of this extremely competitive field. And I think Lady Day will be seen as a triumph for Audra rather than for its script or overall production.


Thoughts? Comments? Disagreements? Corrections? Let me know!