Who Will Win: Musical Performances

The nominations are out, and its time to look at how the race stands. First up Ill be attempting to sift through the performances in this season's musicals.

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Genlteman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Andy Karl, Rocky
4.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
5.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

The frontrunner here, without a doubt, is Neil Patrick Harris. Hedwig is a role built for awards. He gets to transform himself, playing completely against type, carrying the entire show. It doesn't hurt that he is also giving the most energetic performance I've ever seen on Broadway, with impeccable timing and a stellar voice. His closest competition is Jefferson Mays. A previous Tony winner for "I Am My Own Wife", Mays gets to create 8 different personas in "A Gentleman's Guide...", giving a tour de force comedic performance full of slapstick, expert delivery, and more quick changes than you can count. Unless Mays' show has enough love to start a big Tonys sweep, it will be hard for anyone to compete with NPH.

Spoiler: Andy Karl. While the show isn't loved by many, I've been seeing an overwhelming amount of goodwill toward Karl. Sometimes voters like to try and crown a new Broadway leading man with this award (see: Steve Kazee) and I have a feeling Andy Karl is going to get a lot of votes for his intensely physical performance. He has also gotten a Broadway.com vlog to boost his profile and the producers have made a push for him with numerous interviews and articles. If ever there was a dark horse, the guy playing Rocky Balboa is it.


Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Mary Bridget Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin  

This race has been seen as Mueller vs. O'Hara for a long time, and it likely still is. O'Hara has a lot of juicy material and soaring ballads to pour her heart out in during Bridges of Madison County. And though I give a lot of credit to the producers for keeping the show open long enough for voters to see it (many will be in town for the final week since they will be here for the Spring Road Conference), the shows' early closing and relative lack of Tony love do hurt her chances. Which leaves a door open for the newcomer Jessie Mueller. Beautiful really serves as a stellar showcase for this actress, who since making her Tony nominated Broadway debut (in a flop), has worked non-stop to consistent praise. People love her, she's the new "it-girl", and she is likely going to win a Tony. O'hara is certainly not out of the running though. She has her fans in the theatre community, who are certainly just as tired as she is of coming in second place.

Spoiler: Sutton Foster. Yes: She won this category very recently. Yes: She has two Tonys already. But in Violet, Foster gets to play against type.  This is a wild departure from her more frothy song-and-dance musicals like Millie or Anything Goes. Here she is at her most emotionally raw and vulnerable, and received love letters in the form of reviews from essentially every outlet. As we have seen in the past from the likes of Audra Goddess McDonald: if they like you, then they really really like you.  And many a voter might just really really like Foster.


Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Joshua Henry, Violet
4.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Whether reviewers liked or disliked Aladdin, they all had one thing in common to say: This is the Genie's show. Iglehart lights up the stage whenever he appears, and better yet, makes you miss him when he disappears.  Its a scene stealing performance full of immense energy, physicality, and zingers. And I dare say "Friend Like Me" will go down as one of the great showstoppers of this past decade. Hot on his heels is Danny Burstein. Like Ms. O'Hara, he has gotten good at playing the Tony bridesmaid despite a slew of wonderful performances. As the sympathetic Schultz in Cabaret, he wins over the audience without any flashy gimmicks or provocative dancing. He just gives an incredibly nuanced, lived in performance. Like always. In a play, this could be enough for him to win, but voters tend to reward flashier featured roles in the musical categories. The powerhouse Iglehart fits that bill perfectly.

Spoiler: Joshua Henry. A previous nominee for The Scottsboro Boys, Henry provides one of the musical highlights of the season in Violet with the song "Let it Sing". He has a powerful and robust voice, and the song will stay with you long after you've left the theatre. He also plays the most sympathetic man during Violets stage journey, and his chemistry with Sutton Foster is a joy to watch.


Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
3.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
4.) Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful

Without a doubt the most open race of these four acting categories. I'm not really confident at naming it a two horse race at this stage of the game...but since that's the format I've set myself up with, I suppose Ill have to make a call. This is a category where an unknown or seeming dark horse can break through. Nikki M James and Karen Olivo come to mind. So I have a hunch newcomer Lauren Worsham is out in front, even if just by a nose. She is in the Best Musical frontrunner (and likely winner), she gets to play a mix of ingenue and comedy, and she showcases her lovely legit soprano (which is quite a rarity on Broadway these days). With both leading men from "A Gentleman's Guide..." potentially being shut out, this could be the one place to reward the show's stellar cast. Also extremely competitive is Hedwig's Lena Hall. Performing in convincing male drag, Hall adds tremendous depth to a a thinly written character. At the risk of being attacked by die-hard HedHeads, I think she may be the best Yitzhak we've ever seen. She gives a soaring version of "And I Will Always Love You" ala Whitney, and showcases ridiculous vocal precision on her solo number.  It also helps that the producers are arguably campaigning just as hard for her as they are for NPH.    

Spoiler: Linda Emond.  Emond is a beloved theatre veteran who gives a charming and tragic performance as Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret. Many thought she should have won for her last nomination on Death of a Salesman, so that could strike empathy in voters to reward her this go around. Of course, the other two in this category can also be called spoilers given the lack of clear frontrunner. I think that despite her stealing the show with just a few songs, the lack of a "character" will hold back Adriane Lenox from a win for the revue After Midnight.  I could also be underestimating Anika Larsen, but Beautiful by and large, seems to be Jessie Mueller's show by consensus. Hopefully the race will clear up as the ceremony draws closer.

Nominations Morning

Well I did alright, but like usual, the Tonys threw a few curve balls.

*I didnt think they would take 2 out of 4 Best Musical slots for shows without an original score. So we have the frontrunner Gentleman's Guide, a revue, a jukebox musical, and Disney's fun but very corporate made/on brand/middle-of-the-road feeling vehicle. Beautiful would have been my fifth but I thought they would look to Bridges of Madison County as a musical with a brilliant original score to fill a slot. Guess I was wrong. Though this really should have been the category with five nominees...

*Which brings me to Best Play. Seriously? In such a weak year there is no need for 5 of these to get kudos, but it speaks to the lack of consensus the nominators had, given that nothing particularly stuck out. Im baffled that Act One is the most nominated of the new works, though I cant begrudge Shalhoub who is doing marvelous work in the play. I still think (or at least hope) Harvey's Tony savvy will allow him to propel Casa Valentina victory. In a group where none are perfect, it is at least the one that will engage you and make you think.

*There were some great performances Im glad got remembered. In no particular order: Mary Bridget Davies, Paul Chahidi, Samuel Barnett, Lauren Worsham, Jarrod Spector, and Lena Hall. All of them were definitely "on the bubble" and Im glad they managed a spot.

*And performers who were overlooked (my god was lead actor in a play a massacre or what? It was like Red Wedding: The Play). Again in no particular order: Zachary Quinto, Denzel Washington, Ian McKellen, Daniel Radcliffe, Lisa O'Hare, Gabriel Ebert, Rebecca Hall, and the gorgeous, please-belt-in-my-face-all-day Steven Pasquale. If Bridges of Madison County decides they have to post a closing notice, he is welcome to come sing the score in my room to my every night... moving on..

*The best Director of a Play category is made up entirely of helmers of revivals. Further sending a message of the lacking quality of the new works. I thought Joe Mantello, forever present at the Tonys, would manage a nom over Grandage, but these four are a pretty solid group. And over in best Director of a Musical Im pleased that Leigh Silverman made the cut in such a male dominated year.  I feel like I was the only person for a while who considered her in there and glad I made that call.

*Im glad Machinal got remembered even if its solely in "below the line" categories. I really wish Roundabout wouldn't do such short runs, since a great many people didn't get to see it. It may be harder to sell for a long period of time, but I think it would be doable (better marquee and poster design would be a start...)

*Did ANYONE predict Stephen Fry getting a featured actor nomination? I really didnt hear any buzz about him at all, and chatter was low compared to his fellow cast members. And he managed to likely take that last slot from a Casa Valentina or All the Way actor to become the third Twelfth Night performer nominated in the featured category. Pretty impressive morning overall for Twelfth Night. Shakespeare doesn't tend do well at the Tonys, but this year seems poised to change that now. I thought Menagerie had revival in the bag but I think the two are neck and neck at this point.

Ill rank the top 4 categories as I see them now. Full predictions coming soon.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) Beautiful

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) Mothers and Sons
5.) Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables

Best Play Revival
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

Final Predictions

Ok. Here we go. Every category. My no guts, no glory predictions of who is in.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) After Midnight
3.) Aladdin
4.) The Bridges of Madison County
spoilers: Beautiful, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) All the Way
3.) Mothers and Sons
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoiler: Act One

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Violet
3.) Les Miserables
spoiler: Cabaret

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) Twelfth Night
3.) A Raisin in the Sun
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Of Mice and Men, Waiting for Godot

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: Andy Karl, Rocky

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
2.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
3.) Sutton Foster, Violet
4.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
5.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
spoiler: Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
4.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
5.) Daniel Radcliffe, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie & Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
              & Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
spoilers: Estelle Parsons, Velocity of Autumn & Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses

Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
3.) Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
4.) Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
5.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
spoilers: Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men & Patrick Page, Casa Valentina

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Anika Noni-Rose, Of Mice and Men
3.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
4.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Sarah Greene, Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers: Andrea Martin, Act One & Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) Jarrod Spector, Beautiful
spoiler: James Snyder, If/Then & Brooks Ashmanskas, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Adrianne Lenox, After Midnight
2.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide...
5.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
spoilers: Lena Hall, Hedwig & Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide
(this was the hardest to call for me, not really confident about anything here)

Best Director of a Play
1.) John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night
3.) Joe Mantello, Casa Valentina
4.) Bill Rauch, All the Way
spoilers: Anna D. Shapiro, Of Mice and Men & Sam Gold, The Realistic Joneses

Best Director of a Musical
1.) Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angy Inch
3.) Warren Carlyle, After Midnight
4.) Leigh Silverman, Violet
spoilers: Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway & Michael Grief, If/Then

Best Score
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Bridges of Madison County
3.) If/Then
4.) Aladdin
spoiler: Rocky & Big Fish

Best Book
1.) A Gentleman's Guide...
2.) Aladdin
3.) Beautiful
4.) Bridges of Madison County
spoiler: If/Then  & Rocky

Best Orchestrations
1.) After Midnight
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) Beautiful
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Hedwig and the Angry Inch & Les Miserables

Best Choreography
1.) After Midnight
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
4.) Rocky
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide... & Big Fish

Best Costumes Design - Play
1.) Twelfth Night
2.) Act One
3.) Casa Valentina
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Cripple of Inishmaan & Of Mice and Men

Best Costume Design - Musical
1.) Bullets Over Broadway
2.) Aladdin
3.) After Midnight
4.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
spoiler: A Gentleman's Guide...

Best Scenic Design - Play
1.) Act One
2.) The Glass Menagerie
3.) No Man's Land
4.) Mothers and Sons
spoilers: Twelfth Night & The Snow Geese

Best Scenic Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Aladdin
spoilers: A Gentleman's Guide... & If/Then

Best Lighting Design - Play
1.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
2.) Act One
3.) The Realistic Joneses
4.) Machinal
spoilers: The Glass Menagerie

Best Lighting Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
4.) If/Then
spoilers: Aladdin

Best Sound Design - Play
1.) Machinal
2.) All the Way
3.) Act One
4.) The Glass Menagerie
spoilers: Casa Valentina

Best Sound Design - Musical
1.) Rocky
2.) A Gentleman's Guide...
3.) The Bridges of Madison County
4.) Beautiful
spoilers: Bullets Over Broadway

Another Look at the Big Four

Now that more shows have opened (every show eligible is at least in previews) I wanted to take a look at how the big four races have shifted.

Best Musical
1.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
2.) Bullets Over Broadway
3.) After Midnight
4.) If/Then
spoilers
5.) Beautiful
6.) The Bridges of Madison County
7.) Aladdin
long shots
8.) Rocky
9.) Big Fish

Based on its creative team and subject matter (and spring opening), Bullets Over Broadway was the assumed frontrunner even before people saw it.  But reviews have come out and it has sharply divided critics. Perhaps more so than any show this season. Ben Brantley among many others, raked it over the coals while it received sterling reviews from the likes of the Associated Press, EW, and TimeOut.  The other kids on the block who all previously wondered if they were endangered have smelled blood in the water and have gone full throttle with campaigning. Id say Gentleman's Guide is now the one to beat (and are proudly touting their best reviewed musical of the season status). Slots 3 and 4 could really go toward any of the top 7.  After Midnight has seen a drop in attendance and voters may want to assist this well liked show, even if it is a revue. My gut says enough voters will want to reward If/Then for its originality despite a lukewarm response. But Beautiful and Bridges are nipping at its heels and could easily get the last slot instead.

Best Play
1.) Casa Valentina
2.) Mothers and Sons
3.) All the Way
4.) The Realistic Joneses
spoilers
5.) Act One
6.) Outside Mullingar
long shots
7.) The Velocity of Autumn

A fairly weak year for new plays makes the category hard to call. But it seems like Harvey's to loose at this point. Casa Valentina is his first new play in a long while and he provides ample opportunities for the outstanding ensemble cast to shine. The Tonys love men in dressed as women! Fierstein hasnt won best play since Torch Song Trilogy and he knows just how to play the Tony game. Mothers and Sons has divided critics though it has positive feedback from audiences. All the Way is a mixed bag, but in this weak year, expect the power of Bryan Cranston (and its big box office) to elevate it to the top category. The fourth slot is the wild card. Act One disappoints and bores and will only show up if voters feel obligated to vote for Moss Harts memory and/or James Lapine. Outside Mullingar was well received but came and went quickly.  Which leaves Will Eno's post-absurdist comedy which will likely have as many fans as it will haters in the nominating body.

Best Revival of a Musical
1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Les Miserables
3.) Violet
spoilers
4.) Cabaret

Les Mis opened with an impressive advance in sales, and impressive reviews. It seems no one will ever tire of this sweeping epic even only a short while after a film adaptation. It will receive many nominations, but will the voters really want to give it another trophy when there are new things to reward? Violet is performing well in its streamlines, one-act approach. I expect it to divide critics but there's certainly enough to love to warrant a nomination, but I dont think it'll be enough to win. And then there is Hedwig. The show that is becoming the event of the season. No other show is getting audiences roaring, clapping, cheering, singing along as much as this one. Its thrilling to watch and expertly put together. The big question is: Cabaret, will they or wont they? They arent required to nominate more than 3 productions if less than six shows qualify. And this is an identical mounting. If it is nominated, itll have to settle for fourth place.

Best Revival of a Play
1.) The Glass Menagerie
2.) A Raisin in the Sun
3.) Twelfth Night
4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
5.) Of Mice and Men
6.) Waiting for Godot
7.) No Man's Land
8.) Machinal
long shots
9.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
10.) Richard III
11.) The Winslow Boy

Speaking of that new "number of nominees rules", if any category is expanded to 5, it'll be this one. There's so much quality here, I wish I could easily tell you who would be the final nominees with any form of certainty, but there's too much to choose from. I feel relatively confident at my top three here. Glass Menagerie is poised to be this years "Virginia Woolf" and should perform well despite its early bow. A Raisin in the Sun has proved those skeptical about  the ages of its stars wrong.  Kenny Leon has a great track record with the Tonys and will continue it with this production. And while Shakespeare has had a hard time at the Tonys, Twelfth Night got such unanimous praise, even by those who normally cant sit still for good ole Bill, I cant imagine it not showing up here. The revival which got a ton of  press due to its stars may get shut out. I'm talking about the rep productions of Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  The reviews weren't as good as the Shakespeare double bill, and unlike Rylance and Co., both plays were performed 4 times a week (Twelfth Night got 6, Richard III 2). So do the voters unite around Beckett or Pinter? I'm guessing the split here will allow either Cripple of Inishmaan or Of Mice and Men to slip past them, claiming the last spot. I favor the former.  Americans' cultural inferiority complex to the Brits may win out over the star-bating Hollywood casting of Mr Steinbeck's work. Machinal's limited run may knock it out of this extremely competitive field. And I think Lady Day will be seen as a triumph for Audra rather than for its script or overall production.


Thoughts? Comments? Disagreements? Corrections? Let me know!

Surveying the Field Part 3: Play Performances

Part Three of my overview of eligible candidates for this years Tonys. Lets look at the actor's in this season's straight plays.

Best Actress in a Play
1.) Cherry Jones,  The Glass Menagerie
2.) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
3.) Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
4.) LaTanya Richardson-Jackson, A Raisin in the Son
5.) Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn
spoilers
6.) Rebecca Hall, Machinal
7.) Toni Collette, The Realistic Joneses
8.) Marissa Tomei, The Realistic Joneses
9.) Debra Messing, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Rachel Weisz, Betrayal
11.) Mary-Louise Parker, Snow Geese

Now a key spot in these predictions obviously hinges on Lady Day being considered a revival of a play rather than a musical.  My hunch is that they aim for a "play with music" billing similar to "Over the Rainbow" and get the committee to place them here. This will then lead to an epic showdown between Audra McDonald and Cherry Jones. Im truthfully not sure anyone has the power to surpass those two. Tyne Daly is a strong third place, but the part is less showy than her rivals. It was wonderful to watch but it could be a hard role to win with. Will voters like The Realistic Joneses enough to nominate either, or both, of its leading ladies? And will they still remember the far-too-limited run of Machinal to give Rebecca Hall a very deserved nomination? We will have to wait for reviews and general consensus to arise from Raisin in the Sun and Velocity of Autumn to make a better guess.

Best Actor in a Play
1.) Bryan Cranston, All the Way
2.) Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun
5.) Ian McKellen, Waiting for Godot
spoilers
6.) Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
7.) Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
8.) Patrick Page, Casa Valentina
9.) Patrick Stewart, Waiting for Godot
10.) James Franco, Of Mice and Men
long shots
11.) Tracy Letts, The Realistic Joneses
12.) Mark Rylance, Richard III
13.) Michael C. Hall, The Realisitc Joneses
14.) Stephen Spinella, The Velocity of Autumn
15.) Tony Shalhoub, Act One
16.) Santino Fontana, Act One
17.) Brian F. O'Byrne, Outside Mullingar

This is undoubtedly the hardest performance category to call. It should also be noted that eligibility for Casa Valentina and Act One has not been determined. No one is billed above the title or even given separate billing lines in either production and they could theoretically have the entire cast under featured. Bryan Cranston is the only one I can safely call with any confidence, coming of rave reviews and a great year in TV. Radcliffe has been spurned before, but I have hopes that third time will be a charm (since he really was robbed last time). Washington and McKellen seem the most vulnerable and could easily be taken out by any number of candidates (which is a strange thing to write for such actors, but there are an abundance of male driven plays this year). I expect many will wholeheartedly disagree with these rankings. I think even I disagree with them. Ill probably change them 100 times until nominations are announced.

Best Featured Actress in a Play
1.) Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
2.) Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
3.) Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
4.) Andrea Martin, Act One
5.) Ingrid Craigie, The Cripple of Inishmaan
spoilers
6.) Dearblha Molloy, Outside Mullingar
7.) Victoria Clark, The Snow Geese
8.) Leighton Meester, Of Mice and Men
9.) Anika Noni-Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
long shots
10.) Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina
11.) Jayne Houdyshell, Romeo and Juliet
12.) Lisa Emery, Casa Valentina
13.) Tonya Pinkins, A Time to Kill

I have to say this is the thinnest acting race of the season, and Ms Keenan-Bolger may easily walk away with her first Tony award. Sarah Greene just received and Olivier nomination for Inishmaan and with little competition, both she and her frequent scene partner Ingrid Craigie could both land noms. They will likely give Andrea Martin a nomination just for being the gem that is Andrea Martin (and bringing in the few much needed comedic beats of Act One). Simply because I cant see many of the roles igniting much passion among voters, be on the look out for veterans in not so well received plays to catch fire.  If nominators don't have a lot of options they might figure, why not throw bone to Victoria Clark or Jayne Houdyshell?


Best Featured Actor in a Play
1.) Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
2.) Michael McKean, All the Way
3.) Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
4.) Frederick Weller, Mothers and Sons
5.) John Cullum, Casa Valentina
spoilers
6.) Jim Norton, Of Mice and Men
7.) Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons
8.) Gabriel Ebert, Casa Valentina
9.) Peter Maloney, Outside Mullingar
long shots
10.) Padraic Delaney, The Cripple of Inishmaan
11.) Shuler Hensley, Waiting for Godot
12.) Samuel Barnett, Richard III
13.) Michael Cumptsy, Machinal
14.) Billy Crudup, Waiting for Godot
15.) Pat Shortt, Cripple of Inishmaan
16. David Cromer, A Raisin in the Sun

As mentioned in the lead actor race above: Casa Valentina and Act One will remain question marks until later in April. Its possible we could see Santino Fontana, Tony Shalhoub, and Patrick Page moved to this category. Which would make a much more heated race. As it stands now, the real race seems to be Rylance vs McKean. Im giving the edge to Rylance as Viola because he's simply brilliant.  Frederick Weller is essentially a co-lead in Mothers and Sons so he has the benefit of a very large role in the featured category. And despite his small part, Brian J Smith had everyone singing his praises and could very well end up as the first actor to ever get a nomination for the Gentleman Caller. At this early stage (assuming eligibility remains as Ive outlined it) the fifth slot is basically up for grabs.

Surveying the Field Part 2: Musical Performances

I last covered the big four awards, and now its time to look at where things stand for the actors.

Best Actor in a Musical
1.) Neil Patrik Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
2.) Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
3.) Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables
4.) Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
5.) Andy Karl, Rocky
spoilers
6.) Zach Braff, Bullets Over Broadway
7.) Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
8.) Steven Pasquale, Bridges of Madison County
long shots
9.) Will Swenson, Les Miserables
10.) Adam Jacobs, Aladdin
11.) Zachary Levi, First Date

The first 3 seem like locks to me.  Although NPH is obviously sight unseen, I highly doubt they wont throw the former Tony host a bone for this trans-formative performance (which requires him to essentially carry the whole thing). And while double nominations can be difficult to pull off, the two leads in Gentleman's Guide are simply too good not to show up here. The fifth slot seems most up for grabs. Andy Karl is getting great reviews...its too bad he's stuck in a show that isnt. Zach Braff, who is generating great word of mouth with his Bway debut could swoop in and nab one Bullets likely numerous tony nominations. And though the show closed early: never underestimate the power of the Butz. If there is a surprise nomination anywhere, he is the most likely to land a successful sneak attack.

Best Actress in a Musical
1.) Idina Menzel, If/Then
2.) Kelli O'Hara, Bridges of Madison County
3.) Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Sutton Foster, Violet
5.) Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
spoilers
6.) Michelle Williams, Cabaret
7.) Mary Bridgett Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
Possible?
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill

Best Actress in a Musical, otherwise known as Bloodbath Battle Royale: Broadway Edition. In any other year, any one of these 7 ladies would be the clear frontrunner to win. So who gets left out? Will the perceived money-grabbing tactics from the Cabaret revival be enough to oust Michelle Williams in her Broadway debut? Idina Menzel has never been more popular (her cover issue of Billboard Magazine is the first issue to sell out in 2014) and its hard to imagine a world where she doesn't ride this wave to another nomination and likely win. Of course with so many past winners in contention, will the voters finally reward perennial bridesmaid O'Hara? Then there's Audra. There is much debate over whether Lady Day will be eligible under play or musical. My gut says it will be categorized as a play for the Tonys...but if its not, things just got even more complicated.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
1.) James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
2.) Danny Burstein, Cabaret
3.) Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
4.) Joshua Henry, Violet
5.) James Snyder, If/Then
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6.) Cliff Saunders, Les Miserables
7.) Brooks Ashmankas, Bullets Over Broadway
8.) Vincent Pastore, Bullets Over Broadway
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9.) Dule Hill, After Midnight
10.) Colin Donnell, Violet
11.) Anthony Rapp, If/Then
12.) Terrence Archie, Rocky
13.) Jonathan Freeman, Aladdin

Featured categories are notoriously hard to predict at the Tonys. But, as of right now this is Iglehart's to lose. The acting in Aladdin has taken some hits in reviews, but they've had nothing but love letters for the resident Genie. He walks away with this show, and "Friend Like Me" will be a number people will be talking about til this time next year. The somehow still Tony-less Burstein should prove a strong challenger though (he and Kelli O'Hara should do an act together). Its difficult to predict which of the featured Bullets men has the muscle to unite enough voters for a nomination, but Cordero seems to have the most praise out of the 3. The question is if they can achieve a double nomination here.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
1.) Linda Emond, Cabaret
2.) Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway
3.) Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
4.) Caissie Levy, Les Miserables
5.) La Chanze, If/Then
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6.) Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
7.) Keala Settle, Les Miserables
8.) Andiranne Lenox, After Midnight
9.) Betsy Wolfe, Bullets Over Broadway
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10.) Kate Baldwin, Big Fish
11.) Margo Seibert, Rocky
12.) Cass Morgan, Bridges of Madison County
13.) Jane Carr, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
14.) Anika Larsen, Beautiful
15.) Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
16.) Fantasia Barrino, After Midnight
17.) Amber Iman, Soul Doctor

There's a ton of talent to choose from in this category, and things could shake out many different ways between now and the end of April. This could be another battle between Cabaret and Bullets like the male featured race. All three Gentleman's Guide ladies are terrific, but O'Hare has the most to work with, and gets the most comedic elements (which this category frequently rewards). There are several shows that will attempt to make a double nomination happen here (After Midnight is even bringing Fantasia back during the Tony voting period). However, with all this competition I'm not sure anyone can manage more than one nominee here. LaChanze sits it the vulnerable spot because voters could view If/Then as "the Idina show" making it harder for the featured players to find enough love.

Surveying the Field

Most of the shows that will debut this season are at least in previews, with the few late bloomers beginning performances this coming week. So here's a look at some current standings for the Big Four:

Best Musical

1.) Bullets Over Broadway

2.) A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

3.) If/Then

4.) Beautiful

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5.) Rocky

6.) Bridges of Madison County

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7.) Aladdin

8.) After Midnight

It seems like a 3 horse race for best musical between 3 very different productions. 

*Bullets has the power of Stroman plus the feel good vibe of a glitzy golden-age-of-Broadway story. Plus a very talented ensemble that all get a chance to shine. What could hold it back: Tony voters have recently sent very strong messages that they like musicals with new scores (see: Memphis' win) and Bullets borrows all its numbers from the American Songbook. 

*Genlteman's Guide is an incredibly smart musical that has managed success without any big name stars attached to its cast or creators. Its funny, the lyrics witty, the presentation impressive, and the cast gives stellar performances. What could hold it back: Will the voters embrace the new kids on the block when there are so many veterans they could reward? And will the show be able to keep business going once all the new shows have opened?

*If/Then. Idina. Adele Dazeem. It girl of the moment is bringing in people like never before (they were just shy of the $1million a week club in grosses....for a week of previews). She is also given a great deal of material to cover and belts face for essentially the entire time, only briefly leaving the stage. Kitt and Yorkey had great success with Next to Normal and look to innovate again with this show. What could hold it back: Many people are confused by the dual story-line, and multiple re-writes of specific songs to make things clearer are reportedly not clicking yet. Will they fix the book problems by opening?

Best Play 

1.) Mothers and Sons

2.) Casa Valentina

3.) All the Way

4.) Act One

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5.) The Realistic Joneses

6.) The Velocity of Autumn

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7.) Outside Mullingar 

This is the race where no clear frontrunner(s) have emerged. Mothers and Sons is the return of well respected Terrence McNally and Tyne Daly, though reviews seem a bit mixed (I loved it). Could Harvey capture the gold two years in a row with his new play? It certainly offers a lot of promise, with each of the male players getting to don drag and play an alternate persona (which worked well for Kinky Boots). All the Way and Act One have aspects that could snag votes (Bryan Cranston's performance and Moss Harts' legacy), but they are not all around praised as a whole. Be on the look out for Eric Coble or Will Eno to pounce on one of those slots.

Best Revival of a Musical

1.) Hedwig and the Angry Inch

2.) Les Miserables

3.) Violet

4.) Cabaret

It remains a mystery if Cabaret will be deemed eligible to compete here (otherwise it will just be shooting for 3 acting bids). But even if its eligible: why would voters want to give the same production yet another Tony? Les Mis is getting wonderful notices for its new staging. It seems no one ever really tires of that show. Though I sense a PR blitz from the Hedwig team coming on full steam ahead. Expect a Harvey Fierstein level of campaigning from them, and NPH's face to be everywhere you turn.

Best Revival of a Play 

1.) The Glass Menagerie

2.) Twelfth Night

3.) A Raisin in the Sun

4.) The Cripple of Inishmaan

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5.) Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill 

6.) Of Mice and Men

7.) Waiting for Godot

8.) Machinal

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9.) Richard III

10.) No Man's Land

If any category is expanded to 5 nominees, I expect it to be this one. There is a tremendous amount of quality productions to choose from. Glass Menagerie could easily do what Virginia Woolf did last year. Though its success is not entirely guaranteed. Twelfth Night was basically heralded as the "definitive" version of the play, and turned into a full on "event". And if audiences at the first few previews of Lady Day are to be trusted: they have somehow whipped together a remarkable production. From Audra's performance to some stunning set design. I will eagerly await the reviews for Of Mice and Men. Will the theatre folk be able to warmly embrace this troupe of Hollywood actors? And will the voters be able to look past Denzel Washington's age in A Raisin in the Sun? I think the true victims of this category will be the McKellen/Stewart productions. With each being performed an equal amount of times per week, and each considered a separate entry...they may cancel each other out once the votes are tallied.